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Ryder System Inc (NYSE:R)
Q4 2019 Earnings Call
Feb 13, 2020, 11:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Ryder System Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to introduce Mr. Bob Brunn, Vice President, Investor Relations, Corporate Strategy and Product Strategy for Ryder. Mr. Brunn, you may begin.

Robert S. Brunn -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks very much. Good morning, and welcome to Ryder's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings and 2020 Forecast Conference Call. I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to unseen changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economics, business, competitive, market, political and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest GAAP measure is contained in this morning's earnings release, earnings call presentation and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission which are available on Ryder's website. Presenting on today's call are Robert Sanchez, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Parker, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, John Diez, President of Global Fleet Management Solutions; and Steve Sensing, President of Global Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions, are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation.

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Robert.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. This morning, we'll provide a brief overview of our fourth quarter results. We'll also provide our 2020 outlook, including actions that we're taking to improve returns. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for questions. With that, let's turn to an overview of our fourth quarter results. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations was a loss of $0.01 for the quarter as compared to a profit of $1.87 in the prior year. The loss includes $1.67 in higher depreciation related to previously announced residual value estimate changes. Comparable results were at the lower end of our forecast range of a loss of $0.03 to a profit of $0.07, reflecting a modest increase in the depreciation impact of the residual value change as we trued up the estimates provided.

Operating revenue increased by 3% to a record $1.8 billion for the fourth quarter, driven by contractual revenue growth in Fleet Management and Dedicated partially offset by lower revenue as expected in Supply Chain. Page five includes some additional financial information for the fourth quarter. Comparable EBITDA for the quarter was $564 million, up 1% from the prior year, primarily reflecting earnings contributions from our contractual businesses and cost reductions, partially offset by lower rental demand, higher insurance-related costs and the impact from customer labor strikes. Comparable EBITDA for the full year was a record $2.3 billion, up 11% from the prior year. The average number of diluted shares outstanding was 52.3 million, down slightly from the prior year. Excluding pension costs and other items, the comparable tax rate was a benefit of 98.7% in Q4 2019 as compared to an expense of 21% in the prior year, reflecting the impact from residual value estimate changes. Adjusted return on equity was 0.3%, down from 12.7% in the prior year, reflecting lower earnings from higher depreciation related to the previously announced residual value changes. I'll turn now to page six to discuss key trends that we saw in each business segment. Fleet Management Solutions operating revenue increased 6%, driven by growth in our contractual ChoiceLease product, partially offset by lower rental revenue. ChoiceLease revenue increased 9% driven by fleet growth and, to a lesser extent, higher rates on replacement vehicles. The lease fleet increased by a record of 10,500 vehicles or 7% for the full year, reflecting continued outsourcing trends. We expanded our lease customer base by 400 accounts last year. These new customer relationships are expected to yield benefits for a very long time as we typically renew customer deals over successive lease terms and can expand many of these relationships into other services like Dedicated over time. Rental revenue was down 4% for the quarter driven by lower demand for heavy-duty tractors, partially offset by higher truck demand and increased pricing on all vehicle types. Rental utilization on power units was 76%, down from the exceptionally high utilization levels we saw in the prior year.

Our ending commercial rental fleet declined by 6% sequentially from the prior quarter reflecting actions taken to align the rental fleet size with lower market demand. FMS realized a loss of $80 million, primarily reflecting higher depreciation of $118 million due to the impact from previously announced residual value changes as well as lower rental performance, higher insurance-related costs and the cost to prepare a higher number of vehicles for sale. Results benefited from lease fleet growth and higher pricing. Page seven highlights used vehicle sales results. We sold 6,000 vehicles during the quarter, up 33% versus the prior year and up 13% sequentially. For the full year, we sold 21,300 vehicles, an increase of 3,800 or 22% from the prior year. Used vehicle inventory held for sale was 9,400 vehicles at quarter end, slightly above the high end of our target range of 7,000 to 9,000 vehicles but in line with expectations. Inventory increased by 2,500 vehicles year-over-year and by 2,100 vehicles sequentially, reflecting a greater number of units coming off-lease this year as expected and downsizing of the rental fleet. Proceeds per vehicle sold were down 25% for tractors and down 10% for trucks compared to a year ago, reflecting significant and ongoing market weakness. Sequentially, tractor pricing was down 13%, and truck pricing was down 5%. As a reminder, as discussed on our last call, we revised our assumed used vehicle sales price levels for setting residuals for both policy and accelerated depreciation purposes. Page nine of the third quarter earnings call slide deck identify the assumptions we made for policy depreciation purposes for vehicles to be sold in the longer term. The assumption we made for accelerated depreciation purposes for vehicles to be sold in the near term was significantly lower than that and at the trough near the trough level pricing that we saw back in 2002. Price levels that we saw in the quarter were in line with our expectations for the quarter.

I'll turn now to supply chain on page eight. Operating revenue decreased 5%, reflecting previously announced lost business and customer labor strikes, partially offset by higher pricing. SCS pre-tax earnings were up 3% due to improved operating performance, partially offset by the impact from the strikes and a $3 million impact from the change in residual value estimates for vehicles used in supply chain. Segment earnings before tax as a percent of operating revenue were 7% for the quarter, up 50 basis points from the prior year. Turning to Dedicated on Page 9. Operating revenue increased 4%, reflecting higher pricing in new business. DTS earnings before tax increased due to improved operating performance and favorable development from prior year insurance claims. These benefits were partially offset by a $6 million impact from the change in residual value estimates for vehicles used in DTS. Segment earnings before tax as a percent of operating revenue were 7.5%, up 70 basis points from the prior year.

At this point, I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Scott Parker, to cover several items starting with capital spending.

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Robert. Turning to page 10. Full year gross capital expenditures were $3.6 billion, up approximately $500 million from the prior year. This increase reflects higher investments to grow and refresh the contractual lease fleet while rental capex declined. Proceeds from sales were up about $120 million to $518 million, including $43 million from the sale of property in the second quarter. Net capital expenditures increased by approximately $300 million to $3.1 billion. Turning to the next page. We generated $2.7 billion of total cash for the year, up by around $500 million or 26% from the prior year. Free cash flow was negative $1.1 billion, reflecting capital spending to support record contractual lease sales. Debt-to-equity at the end of 2019 increased to 320%, reflecting capital spending and a reduction in equity for the residual value estimate change. At this point,

I'll turn it back to Robert to discuss the 2020 outlook.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Scott. Page 13 and 14 highlight some of the key assumptions for our 2020 earnings forecast. Overall, we expect a moderate growth macro environment and strong contractual sales activity in Supply Chain and Dedicated. We've added sales resources to support growth in these segments and leverage the secular trends that continue to favor outsourcing. We expect lower ChoiceLease sales results, reflecting lower OEM production and from actions taken to improve lease returns. In Fleet Management, the total lease fleet count we've historically reported is expected to decline due to the progress made to reduce the number of vehicles being prepared for sale. We've added a new metric for the active lease fleet count, which excludes vehicles that are in the in-service and outservice process. The active lease fleet is expected to increase by up to 1,000 vehicles this year. The softer freight environment is expected to result in lower commercial rental demand, particularly for heavy-duty tractors. Increased rental pricing and higher year-over-year utilization in the second half should partially offset softer demand on the smaller fleet.

We are on track to substantially rightsize the rental fleet by the end of the first quarter, but we'll continue to make more modest sequential reductions for the balance of the year in order to align the fleet with market conditions. The ending rental fleet is expected to be down 3,700 vehicles or 9% year-over-year. Lower planned lease and rental capital spending is forecast to result in positive free cash flow of $350 million. With a modest growth strategy in FMS, we expect free cash flow to be positive over the cycle. Total cash generated is expected to be $2.6 billion. We are expecting an EPS tailwind from a lower year-over-year impact from the policy depreciation change, accelerated depreciation and used vehicle losses. Comparisons are expected to be unfavorable, however, until the second half of the year when we catch the tail of the residual value estimate change, which was effective as of July 2019. We expect used vehicle pricing to remain soft with some recovery in the second half. We do plan to sell a higher number of vehicles of used vehicles as we expand our retail capacity. We expect continued benefits from our multiyear maintenance cost savings initiative and are increasing the total expected annual savings from $75 million to $100 million. Incremental benefits from this initiative in 2020 will be partially offset by higher cost to prepare vehicles for sale. Turning to Page 14. Supply chain revenue growth will be slow during the first half due to previously announced lost business. Revenue growth rates are expected to improve to target levels in the second half of the year as we move past this impact. The earnings benefit from higher pricing and new business is expected to offset to be offset by strategic investments, favorable prior year insurance claims development and residual value estimate changes for vehicles used in supply chain. In DTS, lower-than-expected sales activity and fewer large deals in the second half of the of last year will reduce our 2020 revenue growth.

We are highly focused on building a quality sales pipeline and increasing sales results to address this issue. DTS earnings will face headwinds from the unfavorable prior year insurance claims development that are not currently forecast to recur in 2020, residual value estimate changes on vehicles used in Dedicated and strategic investments. We expect continued savings from our zero-based budgeting program that will offset inflationary employee compensation and benefit costs. We plan to fund strategic investments in sales and marketing, technology and new products such as RyderShare and COOP, which are focused on driving long-term revenue and earnings growth. Finally, our Board approved a new two year 1.5 million share anti-dilutive repurchase program, which replaces our prior program that expired in December. Based on the assumptions I outlined, I expect we expect operating revenue to remain unchanged in 2020, reflecting revenue growth in ChoiceLease and supply chain, offset by a slowdown in rental and dedicated. Comparable earnings per share is forecast in the range of $1.10 to $1.50 in 2020 as compared to $1.01 last year.

This reflects the lower impact from previously announced residual value estimate changes and growth in our contractual products. These benefits are partially offset by lower expected rental performance, strategic investments, costs associated with actions to improve returns and a higher tax rate. Comparable EBITDA is forecasted to be between $2.2 billion and $2.3 billion, consistent with the prior year. The comparable tax rate is forecasted to be 31%. The tax rate in 2020 is expected to be somewhat higher than a more normalized rate in the high 20s that we would expect going forward. Adjusted ROE is expected to increase to 2.7% in 2020 from the 0.3% in the prior year. page 16 outlines our revenue expectations by business segment. In Fleet Management, operating revenue is expected to be flat as slower growth in ChoiceLease revenue is offset by a decline in rental. ChoiceLease revenue growth is forecast to slow to 2%, reflecting lower OEM production environment, the nonrenewal of lease business with lower returns and anticipated loss business related to the discontinuation of our liability insurance extension program for lease customers. Commercial rental revenue is expected to be to decline by 7%, reflecting lower demand partially offset by modestly higher pricing.

The demand change is largely driven by heavy rental activity in 2019 for customers who were awaiting delivery for their new lease vehicles. SCS operating revenue growth is expected to be 2%, with revenue growth rates around target levels in the second half of the year. Dedicated operating revenue is forecast to decline 1%, reflecting lower sales activity and fewer large deals signed in the second half of last year. Page 17 provides a chart outlining the key changes from 2019 to reach the high end of our 2020 comparable EPS forecast. The year-over-year impact from lower residual values is expected to generate an additional $1.65. Growth in our contractual businesses of lease, supply chain and dedicated are forecast to add $0.55 to EPS. Rental is expected to negatively impact EPS by $0.62, primarily reflecting lower tractor demand, partially offset by higher pricing and higher utilization in the second half of the year.

We continue to make strategic investments to drive future revenue and earnings growth. In 2020, we're planning a $0.45 increase in strategic spending focused primarily on sales and marketing, information technology, new product development and investments to achieve maintenance costs-savings targets. Approximately half of our of these strategic investments are in FMS and focused on also improving returns. In 2020, we expect to incur a negative $0.25 EPS impact related to initiatives that will position us to improve returns in future years. This includes items related to the discontinuation of the lease insurance product line as well as actions to address lower return accounts and assets. Incremental savings from our zero-based budgeting process will largely offset higher employee-related expenses, including compensation and benefit costs. The net impact of these operational items would result in EPS of $1.45 to $1.85. The higher tax rate a higher tax rate is expected to be an EPS headwind of $0.35 bringing the high end of our comparable EPS forecast rate to $1.50 with the range of $1.10 to $1.50 forecast for the year.

I'll turn it back over to Scott now to cover capital spending and cash flow.

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Robert. Turning to page 18. We are forecasting total gross capital spending of approximately $2.1 billion, down significantly due to the lower spending in both lease and rental. Growth capital for ChoiceLease, is expected to be down $900 million, and ChoiceLease replacement spending is expected to be down around $200 million. Rental spending is forecasted to decline by over $400 million to $130 million, reflecting a below full replacement spend level due to the softness anticipated in the transactional market environment. Our investment spending in property and equipment is expected to remain consistent with last year at around $190 million. Proceeds from sales are forecasted to decline by nearly $90 million to $430 million. Prior year proceeds included $43 million from our property sales.

As a result, net capital expenditures are forecasted at around $1.7 billion, a decrease of around $1.4 billion from 2019. Free cash flow is forecasted to be positive $350 million, up by approximately $1.4 billion, reflecting significantly lower net capital spending. Our debt-to-equity forecast is expected to decline to about 315% by the end of the year but remain above our target of 250% to 300% as we work through the impacts of the residual value policy change.

I'll turn it back over to Robert now to discuss our 2020 forecast as well as our long-term targets and actions to achieve them.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Turning to page 19. We're forecasting comparable EPS of $1.10 to $1.50 in 2020 versus $1.01 last year. We're also providing a first quarter comparable EPS forecast of a loss of $0.65 to $0.80 versus the prior year profit of $1.11. Year-over-year earnings comparisons in the first half will be unfavorable as higher depreciation from the July 2019 residual value estimate change did not impact the first half of last year. However, we expect to return to profitability in the second quarter. Additionally, please note that the first quarter is seasonally the lowest earnings quarter for the year. I'd like to turn now and discuss the progress we're making on actions and initiatives to support our strategy of moderate growth with improved returns.

We're continuing to implement meaningful ChoiceLease price increases in order to raise returns and derisk the business in light of the volatility of the used truck market. Although higher pricing is likely to lower new sales with recent from recent record levels, we believe this is an appropriate trade-off in order to enhance returns. In addition, we continue to evaluate underperforming accounts and implement appropriate rate increases at the time of renewal. We expect this will result in some higher levels of lost business and have factored those into our forecast. With favorable results in 2019 from our multiyear maintenance cost initiative, we're increasing our expected annual savings from $75 million to $100 million. During the fourth quarter, we closed a number of underperforming locations in the U.S. and Canada. With higher expected used vehicle sales volumes in 2020, we took action to increase retail sales capacity by adding sales location, locations leveraging our inside sales capabilities and enhancing our used vehicle sales website. In order to accelerate growth in supply chain and dedicated, we've made strategic investments in sales and marketing resources.

We discontinued our liability insurance extension program on customer leased vehicles in order to reduce future exposure from escalating premiums and claims settlement costs. Finally, in 2020, awards under our executive compensation program will be more heavily weighted to cash flow and return-based metrics and less weighted on revenue to align with our strategy. Taken together, these strategic initiatives create short-term earnings headwinds in 2020, but are expected to better prepare us to deliver improved returns in 2021 and beyond. page 22 provides an overview of our financial model and our long-term targets, which have been updated to reflect our current outlook for the business. Our primary financial target going forward will be adjusted return on equity as we focus on improving returns in our business. ROE is a more widely used measure of returns and capital efficiency and return on capital spread and is more easily comparable across companies. We plan to continue to report return on capital spread for some time as well for a reference. We're targeting an adjusted ROE of 11% to 15%.

Our near-term goal is to reach our cost of equity, which is around 11%. Longer term, we believe we can push higher than that up to 15%. It's important to note that we expect to be able to achieve these return levels with no gains in used vehicle sales. The high end of our ROE target range is consistent with our prior ROC spread target. The key components to realizing our return targets includes operating revenue growth, pre-tax earnings as a percent of operating revenue and balance sheet leverage. In Fleet Management, we're targeting operating revenue growth in the mid-single-digit range. This is below our prior target consistent with moderate growth and reflects our focus on increasing pricing and improving lease returns.

In Supply Chain and Dedicated, we're targeting growth rates in the high single digits, in line with our prior goals. We believe these growth rates are achievable given the large addressable markets in which all three segments operate as well as secular trends that continue to favor outsourcing. We're targeting pre-tax earnings as a percent of operating revenue in the high single-digit range for all three business segments. These targets are unchanged in Supply Chain and Dedicated but lower for FMS, reflecting the impact from the recent residual value estimate change. Although we're lowering our FMS earnings target, we expect to be able to achieve a similar overall return level for the company primarily due to the benefits of a lower tax rate.

Our target leverage range of 250% to 300% remains unchanged. We believe actions and initiatives we're executing will position Ryder well to achieve our return targets over time. We're looking at 2020 as the year to ensure that we're taking the appropriate actions to drive better returns beginning in 2021 and beyond. As discussed, some of these actions have a negative impact to revenue and earnings this year, but we think is the right approach to given that our primary focus is on driving higher returns in our business. That concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Please note that we expect to file our 10-K late next week or early the following, which will contain additional details for your review. We had a lot of material covered today. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I'll turn it over to the operator to open up the line.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question from Ben Hartford with Baird.

Benjamin John Hartford -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Thanks Good morning, everyone. A lot in here. Scott, maybe just to ask it directly. As you kind of come in and start to get acclimated with the model, some of the changes on slide 22, I think, are pretty straightforward. But as you think about what is the pathway in your mind kind of two questions here, what's your pathway to achieving that leverage ratio, the debt-to-equity target over the next several years? How do you think you'll get there? And then in that same context, in the meantime, what is your attitude toward the current dividend policy?

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So on the page 22, I think the path on the deleveraging is a combination of two things. So the lower growth in the free cash flow helps us lower the growth and the debt rate. Then the second piece, as the depreciation continues to run off as well as these return on capital actions that we've talked about will build back the kind of the earnings which will improve our equity. So those are the two levers that will drive us to get down in 2021 back into our target range. And the second question, what was the second question again?

Benjamin John Hartford -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

How are you thinking about dividend levels presently? And kind of what's your approach to the dividend policy going forward?

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I think the dividend policy really was historically to kind of be in line with kind of the earnings growth rate. So we feel that dividend is a kind of a good contributor to shareholder return, and we'll continue to look at that going forward kind of relative to earnings expectations going forward.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Todd Fowler with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

Great. Robert, when you think about the pivot on the strategic initiatives, how do we think about your position within the leasing market? It sounds like really the driver going forward is just slower lease growth. Is that looking at the lease portfolio and just pruning out the low-margin accounts, and that's really what slows the growth? Or are you taking a different approach to the market in how you'll grow the lease fleet going forward? I mean, the number two, with the $0.25 of headwind from the strategic initiatives this year, does that go away next year? Or how do we think about that headwind? Does that turn into a tailwind as you move into 2021?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. First, on the lease, and I'll tell you, our approach there is, look, we've been lowering the residual values for our lease pricing for the last couple of years to reflect the kind of the new normal for the used truck market. So we really continued doing that. In addition to that, I think, given the volatility that we've seen in the used truck market, the risk premium on the leases has gone up, but we're adjusting the pricing for that. So we're going to we're looking to continue to increase the pricing to offset that. We don't know what that's going to give us in terms of growth. We're assuming, based on what we've seen in the market, that it will curb some of the growth going forward. And that's really what you've got built in here.

So we're not necessarily just back we're not backing off from the lease business and saying, we don't want to be in it or we just say we want to make sure we're getting the right return. And I think given the fact that what's driven this change is market-driven as the used truck market is down, any private owner who has their own truck is feeling the same pain. I would expect that over time, more people will continue to come to lease. So I just think you're going to see a lot more of the growth may be coming from the private fleet and from companies that have not outsourced before, and we're looking to get a higher premium for that. So that's the first thing. Around the strategic investments, as I mentioned on the call, about half of those investments are investments that we're making to improve our profitability in FMS. A lot of these maintenance initiatives that you're getting we're going to get the benefits, continue to get benefits this year and then more benefits next year. So that some of that will curb will subside next year. And then we're also opening up additional used truck centers that is part of that, too, within FMS that once we think we've got to get our capacity up a little bit higher, we think most of those investments will happen this year. So I think some of that will go away.

The other pieces, which are really the investments in Supply Chain and Dedicated, I don't necessarily see those going away because I think those will we'll continue to make investments to help grow those more asset-light businesses. Todd, just one other thing. Let me just clarify, because if you were asking about the return on capital actions, I just addressed the strategic initiatives. We broke it out in two buckets. The return on capital actions, a big chunk of that in 2020 is really related to the fact that we're going to lose some accounts where we were providing we were extending lease insurance to them, insurance services to them. So if we pull the insurance, we may lose the account. So we've built that in. We expect that to be kind of a one year some of it will bleed into 2021, but the bulk of that will really impact this year. That's a chunk of it. The other piece is just low-return accounts that we are not going to renew. So they may be contributing to the margin. But when you look at the return on capital and return on equity, they're certainly below the target that we want. So there'll be some, I think, ongoing headwind each year from that. But as you'll see each year, you'll get an improvement in returns on our invested capital and returns on our equity as a result of that.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

Okay. So just to clarify, the first half of the comments were related to the $0.45 bucket on the strategic investments?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Correct.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

The second piece of the comments that you just made on the insurance and the low-margin accounts, that was the $0.25 bucket, and it sounds like of a $0.25 bucket, some of that will continue, but the order of magnitude would be less than the $0.25 going forward?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Right. That would be the expectation.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott H. Group -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

So I want to ask about the slide from last quarter with the Xs on used prices. So where are used prices today versus those Xs? I'm wondering if there's any additional cushion left or if we've sort of worked through that now? And then I'm wondering, have you lowered the residual assumptions any further from what you told us last quarter? And then maybe just with that, can you just update us, last quarter, you told us what the depreciation tailwinds would be in 2020 and 2021. Can you give us the updated numbers to the extent that those have changed at all?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Let me address the question on the chart that we showed from last quarter, and then I'll let Scott talk about depreciation. To give you an idea where we're at, if you remember the slide I hate talking about a slide from last quarter, but I know this thing got a lot of press. It was a slide that we had a 20-year look back on tractor pricing and then we showed an X as to where our policy depreciation was, but we did not share an X as to where accelerator was just because of it would not certainly not wanting to drive the market in that direction. But what I just said on this call was that our accelerated depreciation number is toward the trough level that we saw in 2002. So a 20-year low. That's where we have marked the accelerated depreciation at. Where we ended the quarter was in between the two numbers. So we are right in the middle between the where the policy X is and where the accelerated depreciation is, which is right where we expect it to be. So you did see a decline in the quarter. Used vehicle pricing continues to decline as we'd expect. We're expecting it to bottom out in the middle of the year and then see some pickup in the second half of the year.

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Scott, on the second question, we added a slide on page 26 of the deck that I'll tie into kind of refer to your question about what changed from the third quarter estimate. So if you go back there, we had, for the impact to the second half of 2019, just from the estimate change, was $289 million. We mentioned that there was a slight refinement and true-up as we push that down in the fourth quarter of about $8 million. So the total impact from the change was $297 million. There'll be more details in the K for that. We also mentioned that there was some policy and depreciation that was effective 1/1 of 2019. That number was about $60 million. So the total depreciation impact in 2019 was around $357 million. And then we add the losses from used vehicle sales. So we had some additional in the fourth quarter than what we had in the third quarter.

So total of all the depreciation and UVS losses for 2019 was around $415 million. As you kind of go into 2020, and the chart we had last quarter had the impact from the estimate change at $250 million. The follow-through of some of the 1/1/2019 does trail into 2020, so that's about $25 million. So the total impact from depreciation, we're expecting at $275 million. And then when it comes to estimation for the used vehicles, we expect that there are some assets that are not in our accelerated classification that on a monthly basis, we do take back units that are outside of that definition that we will have some potential slight losses in 2020 related to those assets. So that gets you to $295 million for the total impact for 2020. So the year-over-year change is $120 million that we have on the chart, which is about $1.65. So hopefully, when you get to page 26, you kind of see the details of how that kind of relates to what we shared in the third quarter.

Scott H. Group -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

And I know it's early, but was the $125 million for 2021 changed?

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

The $125 million for 2021, if you were to solve right now, like the $120 million year-over-year benefit from 2019 to 2020, right now we're expecting the impact from 2020 to 2021 to be around that or maybe a little bit higher, maybe $125 million, $130 million impact of positive tailwind from 2021 or 2020, sorry.

Scott H. Group -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay. And if I can ask one more just on the strategic investments. So I went back and I think this is it's now nine years in a row where it's become a year of an incremental year-over-year headwind. I guess, two things. In prior years, though, there are some cost actions and maintenance things that are offsets how come we don't see anything like that in the bridge this year? And I guess why not a more meaningful sort of reduction in the future to these investments if the growth is slowing and maybe the payout hasn't the payout hasn't been there?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Although well, couple of things. One is, is there are cost actions in there. We talked about it in the waterfall. We didn't call it out, but we're the cylinder the item that has overheads is has got it netted out with the cost actions. There's at least $20 million of zero-based budgeting benefit built into that, that is offsetting the compensation increases year-over-year. So they are in there. In terms of why not pull back on the strategic investment. Remember, half of that are investments that we're making to basically get improvements in the business. So we need those in order to get the maintenance cost savings that you're going to see in contractual business and in rental and then also in order to get to expand our used vehicle networks so that we can sell more units. So we haven't come off of that. I think the issue is just continuing, is making sure that we're making the investments we need to get the savings along with the investments that we're making. The other investments are primarily related to growing more asset-light supply chain and dedicated businesses.

Scott H. Group -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay, thank you guys.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Justin Long with Stephens.

Justin Trennon Long -- Stephens Inc -- Analyst

Wanted to follow up on the 2020 guidance, just given some of the earnings volatility we're seeing. Obviously, you gave the first quarter outlook. And Robert, I think you mentioned you expect profitability in the second quarter. But is there any additional color you can provide on the cadence of EPS from 2Q to 4Q this year as we try to model that out? And maybe as you answer that, you could talk about how these strategic investments and the return improvement costs are going to flow through the model quarterly over the course of 2020.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I think the key item, number one is the first quarter is always the lowest quarter, primarily driven by rental, which is usually your lowest utilization quarter as there's less need for seasonal units to be used along with just less miles driven generally in transportation in the first quarter. So as we get into a seasonal uptick in the second quarter, you're going to see the benefits of that. And that's why I mentioned that we expect to turn to profitability. The big benefit in earnings really starts to kick in, in the third and fourth quarter as the impact of the depreciation change really starts to subside and you start to get some earnings benefit there. Along with that, as I mentioned, the growth that we're really expecting to ramp back up in supply chain and dedicated. You start to see some benefits coming from that part of it. Along with on the rental side, I would tell you, rightsizing the rental fleet and getting the utilization levels back up to where they need to be in the second half of the year. So those are probably the biggest drivers. You're going to see some improvement in the second quarter. As I said, we get to profitability. And then you see a bigger improvement in earnings in the second half of the year.

Justin Trennon Long -- Stephens Inc -- Analyst

And just to follow-up on that rental piece. What's your assumption for rental demand first half versus second half? I know it's down 10% for the full year, but what does the cadence look like?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

John, you got that there?

John J. Diez -- President, Fleet Management Solutions

Yes. So Justin, we let you know that we expected a decline in revenue in that range of 7% for the full year. And you can expect the first quarter, which has the toughest comps, to be the biggest decline year-over-year, and you're looking at near double digits. And then it'll start trailing off from there. Once we get the fleet rightsized and then demand levels kind of balance out. And really, you're looking at Q3, Q4 for that to balance out.

Justin Trennon Long -- Stephens Inc -- Analyst

Okay, great. I'll leave it there. Thanks for the time.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

Brian Patrick Ossenbeck -- JP Morgan Chase & Co, -- Analyst

I just wanted to expand a little bit more on the thought process and maybe the time line of the, I guess, the footprints. You're shrinking some locations. If you could just give us some context in terms of how many that was, are these leased or owned? And any sort of follow-on financial impact whether impairments or gain on sale or anything like that embedded in the guidance? So maybe a little bit of the detail and then just bigger picture, how you think this how long do you think this rightsizing might last? And to what degree?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

I'll let John give you a little bit of color. But I would tell you that's just part of our kind of our pruning process. As we looked at the network, we found some locations that were underperforming. We do this on a regular basis. There's probably a few more that we picked up this year. So we made some adjustments there. I think there in terms of ongoing efforts, I think you're going to still see some of it as we continue to look at either accounts or customers that are underperforming. But it was a little bit more than usual. But again, not a significant number. I'll let John give you a little bit more color.

John J. Diez -- President, Fleet Management Solutions

Yes. Just to provide a little bit of color, I think what you heard on the closures is really a consolidation. So we're always looking at improving the health of the business. And when we looked at a number of our facilities, we were looking at those that were underperforming, but also we got to take an eye toward the customer impact as well as the employee impact, and we just saw opportunities to consolidate a number of these smaller facilities into our larger shops. In total, we impacted about 30 facilities. So I would tell you, I think the large portion is behind us. We may do some selective consolidation as we move forward. But overall, as we look forward, we're trying to improve the overall health of the business.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

I think an important thing, Brian, is that a lot of our capital is really tied up in the assets, the actual trucks. So reducing the infrastructure does give you some improvement, but the important thing is to make sure that we're getting the right return on each of the vehicles. And that's the work that we're doing. And I think the key is a lot of these decisions really happen at time of renewal. We've got six year leases. You can't just, in the middle of the lease, typically, it's not good for the customer or good for Ryder to break those leases. But as each year as you get renewals, certainly taking a harder look at each of them, raising the pricing going forward is going to help us accelerate getting to our target returns.

Brian Patrick Ossenbeck -- JP Morgan Chase & Co, -- Analyst

Okay. So it sounds like this is maybe a little bit above average in terms of the normal screening process given the strategic initiatives you're going through. So it sounds like we shouldn't assume that there's any material impact in terms of impairments or severance or things like that embedded in the numbers?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

No. No, that's not that's correct. I wouldn't assume that.

Brian Patrick Ossenbeck -- JP Morgan Chase & Co, -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks for the time.

J. Steven Sensing -- Ryder System

Thank you.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Stephanie Benjamin with SunTrust.

Stephanie Benjamin -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

I was hoping you could give a little bit of color on some of the investments you're making to build out the Dedicated and Supply Chain segments. You mentioned sales and marketing, IT, just maybe some examples of what that entails when you really start to step up those investments and when we should expect to see some of the returns and the benefits, that would be helpful.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I would tell you that the simple one is certainly adding more sales resources and marketing dollars to really get after those accounts that we think we could win. As you know, a big opportunity for us continues to be leveraging our FMS sales force to sell into Dedicated. So adding more resources to help facilitate that is part of that investment. Adding more resources in the Supply Chain side, not only on the sales side but also on the start-up teams to really get these accounts and get us to a higher growth rate, I think, is another part of it also. A big part of the spend, I would tell you from what we're doing here is really around two significant strategic initiatives. One is RyderShare, which is our visibility and collaboration tool. And I'll let Steve give a little more color on that. The exciting thing about that is that really does, we think, provide us a competitive advantage in the marketplace as we go out and prospect for new business. Our ability to provide our customers with that visibility and collaboration across their supply chain is a differentiator, and I think that's going to continue to be a big part of what we do. And then the second piece is around our e-fulfillment network. As you know, we bought Ryder Last Mile. We bought XPO a few years ago. We bought MXD and turned it into Ryder Last Mile. So we want to continue to see how we expand that and really grow that part of the business. But we also want to develop this e-fulfillment network, which allows us to handle not just big and bulky but allows us to handle product for customers that want to go direct to their consumer, and not go to any retailer. So building out a network, we've got now facilities on the West, Central and East Coast of the U.S. and really starting to build that out. So let me also let Steve give a little more color.

J. Steven Sensing -- Ryder System

Yes, it's Steve. On back to RyderShare. Think of it as a collaborative supply chain visibility tool, as Robert said. We have began the roll out across our DTS organization earlier this year. It should be complete midyear of 2020. We started our transportation management service. That's what we kind of operate as the traffic department for our customers. We began that rollout here in Q1, really focused on getting that fully rolled out to our customer base by about Q1 of next year. And then we'll begin to advance into the warehousing and e-fulfillment side of the business. So it really allows our operators, customers, our carrier partners to view the same information in real time and make decisions that will improve the service to the end consumer. I'll touch real quick on e-comm. We are up and running now in three locations. We are putting automation into those three locations as well. Really as the volume comes in because, it's a cost-benefit analysis so we're getting good traction there. The pipeline continues to increase with new opportunities. So investing sales and marketing in e-comm, e-fulfillment as well. And then Last Mile, this will be our first year of full comps. And I'll tell you that we're coming off a really good sales year this past year. So it's really going to be about execution implementation as we look at 2020.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from David Ross with Stifel.

David Griffith Ross -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

David, a question on slide 18. Scott, when you look at the capex year-over-year and you break it out to growth and replacement, replacement capex looks lower on a bigger lease fleet. So $1.5 billion versus $1.7 billion. And then rental replacement is down significantly from about $560 million to $130 million. What's a good run rate for I know there's difference in timing and annual trade cycles. What's a good run rate for replacement capex for both the rental and lease fleet?

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I'll address the rental first. I mean, the rental, I think on a normal level of replacement, not in the market we are, it's probably more in the $400 million range. On the replacement, I think part of this is kind of as we're going through these ROC actions that Robert mentioned, it's kind of get too much further out. We have to kind of see how all that plays out in regards to the renewals. The price increases we're implementing, how that impacts that, David. But that's something we can kind of think about as we go forward, giving more clarity. But right now, we're kind of in the early stages of that so I don't want to get too far into kind of predicting that level.

David Griffith Ross -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

And then just, I guess, a quick follow-up. On slide 22, why is growth necessary for the ROE targets and not just improved earnings before tax margins?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Why is growth why is top line growth necessary?

David Griffith Ross -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

Yes. I mean why can't the business just cycle through some of these depreciation challenges? Used truck challenges. Even if you had the same fleet, in theory, I would think you would be able to get in the range. So I guess, why does it need to be a bigger revenue base to get to those financial targets?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Well, remember, some of the revenue increase is going to come from just improved pricing on the new stuff coming in. But some revenue growth I'm sorry, some fleet growth will help drive some of that earnings. Again, if the fleet growth is coming in at good returns, which we feel confident that's what we're doing with the pricing that we've put in and we'll continue to put in, that's going to help us get to the return levels sooner.

David Griffith Ross -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from John Cummings with Copeland Capital.

John R. Cummings -- Copeland Capital Management -- Analyst

I just wanted to ask a follow-up question on the dividend. You mentioned moving the dividend over time with earnings. So with earnings down significantly now, I mean, how are you thinking about the current dividend level?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, I think on that, we're dividends have historically been for us really an indication of long-term earnings potential. So if you look at our long-term earnings potential, we don't see a change in that at this point. So our view around it, it's a long-term indication of where we're going. And we don't see that as having changed significantly here with this depreciation change that we made.

John R. Cummings -- Copeland Capital Management -- Analyst

Okay. So then, I guess, at what point would you consider I mean, would you still consider raising the dividend at this point or holding it flat? I'm just trying to understand the philosophy here given the challenges you're facing.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. No, look, I think that's a decision we'll make with the Board here this year in terms of whether we raise it or not. But I think, again, the dividend policy overall is really tied to our long-term earnings expectation. Right now, based on the earnings we're producing, obviously, the yield is pretty significant. But we see that changing over the next several years as depreciation impact starts to subside and we get back to more normalized earnings level. So our view is to really keep it consistent with where we think we're going, which would kind of keep us in the range that we're in right now.

John R. Cummings -- Copeland Capital Management -- Analyst

Okay. And then I just wanted to ask one more question on the ROE targets and just if you can comment on when you would expect to get back into that target range.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. If you look at the ROE targets we've laid out, we're saying that if you get as we get to the bottom end of that range is really covering our cost of equity. So we would expect to be certainly in that range in the next three to five years, getting to our cost of equity within the next three years and then expanding beyond that. And again, an important comment there is that we're not expecting any UVS gains as we come up with these targets. So if we if the used truck market were to come back higher than the levels that we expect here or above the levels we've expected, we would get there sooner. We are expecting a stable rental market, too, which is another part of the environment. So the timing will be driven by certainly the execution on our initiatives, and then those economic and market factors that impact used vehicle sales and rental. But certainly, the takeaway I'd give you is that our moderate growth strategy in ChoiceLease should lead to significantly better free cash flow over the cycle. And you'll see you're seeing some of that this year. As we get into next year and we get to a more normalized rental probably replacement, some of that free cash flow may come down from where we are today, but still certainly looking to be positive over the cycle and going forward.

John R. Cummings -- Copeland Capital Management -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Ben Hartford with Baird.

Benjamin John Hartford -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Can I just get, Robert, a little bit of context behind the termination of the lease insurance program? I mean, we understand the dynamics, obviously, in the market at this point in time. But how big of a drag has it been in recent quarters? And what does it do? How does it change anything from a go-to-market standpoint as you think about 2020 and beyond not having that program in place?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Look, I think, Ben, it's a program we've had in place for many years. It was really a convenience for some of our customers. We're extending our insurance to those customers. So the short-term impact is really for a select number of customers where we think that by pulling that away, they're not going to renew with us or they may go away. I think longer term, I don't see it as a significant drag on our growth because, still, the vast majority of our lease customers do take do have their own insurance through their own programs and do not take our lease insurance program. But over the last several years, it has been a headwind in FMS. And we think that, that headwind, that risk is not worth the benefit that we're getting. Therefore, we're moving to move out of that part of the business.

Benjamin John Hartford -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Okay. You guys are reporting relatively late in the calendar. Could you provide obviously, you don't have as much Asian outbound export exposure than some. But to what extent can you provide any context as to what's going on now that we're beyond February 10 and it still seems like factory output's constrained? What are you hearing from an inbound freight standpoint, what are your customers saying? Supply Chain might provide a little bit of insight into that, particularly from an automotive or an electronics vertical. Any context real-time that you can provide as to what the impact will be in coming weeks from a freight standpoint.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

I'll let Steve mention or comment on any of the stuff that we're seeing on the Supply Chain side more broadly. But I would tell you on the rental side, which is typically our leading indicator of what's going on with freight, we are continuing to see softness there. That is not surprising considering the imbalance between freight and trucks right now. You've got a lot of trucks on the road for the amount of freight that's moving. That's something we expect just on normal cycles to get back in line in the second half of this year as you're hearing from other folks in the industry. So we are seeing that. I would tell you, we saw that in January, we did build that into our full year forecast that you're getting. So again, some really softness around the freight environment. I think, would be a what we what I tell you, we saw in January. Steve, do you want to mention anything what you're seeing?

J. Steven Sensing -- Ryder System

Yes. Ben, I mean, we're we shut down our Asia operations so we're no longer in the region. But I'll tell you in working across primarily the auto and industrial industries right now, we're not really seeing any short-term impact. I think many of our customers are looking at alternative plans and kind of kicking in disaster recovery plans and switching suppliers where they can. So nothing really coming from the customer base at this point. So just more to come and more to watch.

Benjamin John Hartford -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Todd Fowler with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

I just wanted to ask, Scott, on slide 26 that you referenced. Can you help us understand, it sounds like that pricing was within your expectations for the fourth quarter, but there was a little bit of movement in the depreciation. So what contributes to the variability? And specifically when we think about the $1.65 that you're expecting in 2020, what factors would make that different from your forecast? Is it used truck pricing? But again, it sounds like it was within your range? I'm just trying to figure out how the depreciation tailwind could move how it moved in the fourth quarter than how it can move into 2020.

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Todd. So I think with the size of the change that we made, I think the true-up that we did is kind of not kind of it shouldn't be read into there's any change in the assumptions or what we did. It was just kind of a minor modification to that. As you think about going forward, as Robert mentioned, in the fourth quarter, pricing was in line with what our expectations are. We have forecasted that out for the remainder of 2020. So what the factors that would impact that is really comes down to kind of our forecast versus kind of what happens in the marketplace. So we've used the best information and what we've been seeing for the last six months to kind of inform us on what we're doing. But as Robert mentioned, we're kind of on the accelerated side, we're kind of at that kind of trough level. So anything that's beyond that would be something that would be something we would need to kind of address. If it comes in a little bit better than that, that would be kind of welcome news.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

Okay. And then can you just speak to, in your forecast, is that just staying at the trough level? It sounds like maybe a little bit of improvement in the back half of the year. And not looking for specifics, but maybe just directionally kind of what you have in your forecast.

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Correct. As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have been seeing go down and then a modest recovery in the back half of the year based on what we've seen and heard in regards to some of the research out there about some of the supply demand imbalance kind of stabilizing as we get through this year.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

Great. Okay. And then just lastly, can you share how much in the 2020 guidance is the cost to prep vehicles for sale?

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we're I don't think on that one, Todd, we haven't been specific. The comment was really around the fact that we have more vehicles that we have to outservice. So because of that, we're going to be spending more money doing those outservicing and really getting those vehicles prepared for sales. That's really it. It's not a specific number that we get into.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

Okay. That's fair. I think that, Robert, I think we're trying to just put together some of the pieces that won't be in the 2021 number. So that's what I was looking for there, but we can follow up.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Right. Well, what I would tell you, though, is you'll see you're going to have that increase this year. As you get into next year, though, you will still have a significant number you'll still have a similar number of units to outservice and to get to sell as a similar number of units will be terming out. So I wouldn't expect it to be a good guy next year nor a bad guy. Maybe flattish next for the following year.

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

Got it? Okay. Thanks again for this time.

Operator

And we'll take our last question from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott H. Group -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

I just got a real quick one. The what is the tax rate for this year? And then is that the new normal? Does that go back down next year? Can you help us out?

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Thanks for the question. No, given what we're going through, I would just first start off in the first quarter, as we talked about, that we expect to have negative earnings. So when you think about the tax rate that we put out for 2020, the first quarter, we're going we'll have a tax benefit. And then as you get through the year, we'll get the kind of the tax rate that we provided guidance around. And the real challenge that we're working through, Scott, is that there's the kind of the statutory tax rate. But when you have lower earnings, and we also have a fair number of discrete items, and there was one came in the fourth quarter in regards to a true-up for some of our state tax returns that we don't expect to repeat in 2020. So as with a low pre-tax number and having discrete items that doesn't repeat, that's why the rate is higher in 2020 versus 2019. But if you think about it going forward, as we look at 2021 and 2022, just because of the impact of the lower earnings from the depreciation we're taking, I think it'd be more applicable to kind of use kind of a high 20s kind of tax rate until we kind of get back to what I would call more normalized earnings levels, which would then effectively make the rate go down because you have more pre-tax with kind of similar tax expense so that's what brings us down the rate. But I think for the next couple of years, I'd stay in the high 20s.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Right. So we've got in the forecast is 31%. And then going forward, stay in the high 20s.

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So it kind of comes down as we get that depreciation unwinding over the next couple of years, that would kind of marginally reduce the rate that you would be seeing from the 31% in 2020.

Operator

I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Robert Sanchez for closing remarks.

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

All right. Thanks, everyone. We're about five minutes past the top of the hour, but I think we got all the questions that were in the queue. So thank you all for your interest, and we certainly look forward to seeing you over the next few months.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 67 minutes

Call participants:

Robert S. Brunn -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Robert E. Sanchez -- Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Scott Parker -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

John J. Diez -- President, Fleet Management Solutions

J. Steven Sensing -- Ryder System

Benjamin John Hartford -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Todd Clark Fowler -- KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc -- Analyst

Scott H. Group -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Justin Trennon Long -- Stephens Inc -- Analyst

Brian Patrick Ossenbeck -- JP Morgan Chase & Co, -- Analyst

Stephanie Benjamin -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

David Griffith Ross -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

John R. Cummings -- Copeland Capital Management -- Analyst

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