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ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:ON)
Q3 2020 Earnings Call
Nov 2, 2020, 9:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the ON Semiconductor Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today to Mr. Parag Agarwal, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Parag Agarwal -- Vice President-Investor Relations and Corporate Development

Thank you, Dennis. Good morning and thank you for joining ON Semiconductor Corporation's third quarter 2020 quarterly results conference call. I'm joined today by Keith Jackson, our President and CEO, and Bernard Gutmann, our CFO.

This call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.onsemi.com. A replay of this webcast, along with our 2020 third quarter earnings release, will be available on our website approximately one hour following this conference call and the recorded webcast will be available for approximately 30 days following this conference call. The script for today's call and additional information related to our end markets, business segments, geographies, channels, share count, and 2020 and 2021 fiscal calendars are also posted on our website.

Our earnings release and this presentation include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable measures under GAAP are also included in our earnings release, which is posted separately on our website in the Investor Relations section. During the course of this conference call, we will make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the Company. The words believe, estimate, project, anticipate, intend, may, expect, will, plan, should or similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We wish to caution that such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from projections. Important factors which can affect our business, including factors that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements, are described in our Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs and other filings with Securities and Exchange Commission.

Additional factors are described in our earnings release for the third quarter of 2020. Our estimates, or other forward-looking statements may change, and the Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, changed assumptions, or other events that may occur, except as required by law.

During the fourth quarter, we plan to attend two virtual conferences. These include NASDAQ's 43rd Virtual Investor Conference on December 1st and Wells Fargo TMT Summit 2020 on December 2nd.

Now, let me turn it over to Bernard Gutmann, who will provide an overview of our third quarter 2020 results. Bernard?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you Parag, and thank you everyone for joining us today. During the third quarter, we saw strong recovery in business conditions due to sharp acceleration in global economic activity, especially in the automotive market. Order activity has picked up meaningfully across end markets and geographies. Manufacturers are striving to meet the upsurge in demand, which was previously disrupted by COVID-19 pandemic. Along with the strong macro-driven recovery of our business, momentum in our key strategic growth areas in industrial, automotive, and cloud-power end-markets is accelerating. Our design wins are accelerating and the design funnel is expanding at a rapid pace.

As we stated earlier, gross margin improvement is the primary strategic priority for the Company. We are on track with our manufacturing consolidation plans, and discussions are ongoing with various parties regarding the previously announced intended sale of our fabs in Belgium and Niigata, Japan. In the near term, revenue tailwinds from the ongoing recovery in business conditions and favorable end market mix shift should help drive margin expansion.

Now, let me provide you additional details on our third quarter 2020 results. Total revenue for the third quarter of 2020 was $1.317 billion, a decrease of 5% as compared to revenues of $1.382 billion in the third quarter of 2019. The year-over-year decline in revenue was driven primarily by a slowdown in global macroeconomic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. GAAP net income for the third quarter was $0.38 per diluted share as compared to a net loss of $0.15 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2019.

Non-GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2020 was $0.27 per diluted share as compared to $0.33 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2019. GAAP gross margin for the third quarter of 2020 was 33.5% as compared to 34.4% in the third quarter of 2019. Non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter of 2020 was 33.5% as compared to 35.8% in the third quarter of 2019. The year-over-year decline in gross margin was driven primarily by lower revenue as discussed earlier, and COVID-19 related costs.

Our GAAP operating margin for the third quarter of 2020 was 9%, as compared to negative 3.2% in the third quarter of 2019. Third quarter 2019 GAAP operating margin included an impact of $169.5 million related to the intellectual property settlement with Power Integrations. Our non-GAAP operating margin for the third quarter of 2020 was 12%, as compared to 13% in the third quarter of 2019. The year-over-year decline in operating margin was driven largely by lower revenue and the impact on gross margin due to COVID-19 pandemic.

GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $322.2 million, as compared to $519.1 million in the third quarter of 2019. Third quarter 2019 GAAP operating expenses included $169.5 million related to the intellectual property settlement with Power Integrations. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $283.6 million, as compared to $314.3 million in the third quarter of 2019. The year-over-year decrease in non-GAAP operating expenses was driven primarily by strong execution on the cost front, and by restructuring and cost saving measures undertaken by the Company. The third quarter free cash flow was $101.8 million and operating cash flow was $163.4 million.

Capital expenditures during the third quarter were $61.6 million, which equate to a capital intensity of 4.7%. As we indicated previously, we are directing most of our capital expenditures toward enabling our 300 millimeter capabilities in the East Fishkill fab. We expect total capital expenditures for 2020 to be in the range of $370 million to $390 million. We exited the third quarter of 2020 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.654 billion, as compared to $2.06 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2020. The decline in cash balance was primarily due to a pay down of amounts drawn under our revolving debt facility as a precautionary measure in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

At this time, with cash balance of approximately $1.6 billion, we are very comfortable with our liquidity position. In the fourth quarter, we expect to use approximately $690 million to pay off our 2020 convertible note principal at maturity. At the end of the third quarter, days of inventory on hand were 133 days, down seven days as compared to 140 days in the second quarter of 2020. In the fourth quarter, we intend to continue to reduce our balance sheet inventories. Therefore, we plan to run our factories at current levels of utilization, despite expected higher revenue levels in the fourth quarter.

In the third quarter, distribution inventory decreased by approximately two weeks as sales through the distribution channel increased significantly quarter-over-quarter. Instead of shipping products in the distribution channel for revenue, we brought down channel inventory, even though it was within our comfort zone.

Now let me provide you an update on performance of our business units, starting with Power Solutions Group, or PSG. Revenue for PSG in the third quarter was $647.4 million. Revenue for the Advanced Solutions Group, or ASG, for the third quarter was $494.6 million, and revenue for our Intelligent Sensing Group, or ISG, was $175.3 million.

Now, I would like to turn the call over to Keith Jackson for additional comments on the business environment. Keith?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Thanks, Bernard. Let me first update you on our manufacturing optimization plans, and then I will provide an update on the current business environment. We are in discussions with various parties regarding the planned sale of our Belgium and Niigata fabs. We are working diligently to get quick resolutions on these fabs, but we do not have an announcement to make at this time. Process for ceasing operations of our fab in Rochester, New York, is progressing as per plan, and we expect to begin seeing annual savings of $15 million starting in the first quarter of 2021.

We achieved major milestone in the third quarter as we recognized our first revenue from our 300 millimeter products. We continue to make solid progress in our manufacturing transition to 300 millimeter fab in East Fishkill, New York. As I have indicated earlier, yields for our 300 millimeter manufacturing processes have been spectacular, and we expect to see a meaningful positive impact on our gross margin as our 300 millimeter manufacturing ramps in the coming years. Additionally, our 300 millimeter manufacturing capability in East Fishkill fab has afforded us significant flexibility, which has enabled us to optimize our network.

We continue to make substantial progress in our key initiatives to expand gross margins. We are driving shift toward higher margin products by aggressively winning designs in automotive, industrial, and cloud-power end-markets. At the same time, we continue to optimize our portfolio to drive margin expansion. The fundamentals of our cost structure remain unchanged. With ongoing recovery, as our revenue and factory utilization increase, we expect to see meaningful increase in our gross margin. The benefits from manufacturing optimization, mix shift, and portfolio optimization should be additive to fall-through we see from incremental revenue.

Now, let me comment on the current business environment. We have seen meaningful acceleration in order momentum in the third quarter, and we expect that business activity will continue to grow at above seasonal levels in the near term. Along with improving global macroeconomic environment, our accelerating design-wins in automotive, industrial, and cloud-power end-markets are key contributors to our momentum. From a geographic perspective, we are seeing acceleration in demand from all regions. Economic data such as PMI and GDP point toward a strong recovery in industrial activity and in the overall business environment across the globe.

Although COVID-19 pandemic temporarily affected our business, the underlying fundamentals of our business and secular trends driving our business remain unchanged. We continue to see strong momentum in key strategic initiatives for electric vehicles, robotics, factory and warehouse automation, cloud-power, and ADAS. We are well positioned to benefit from ongoing recovery with our highly differentiated power, analog, and sensor products, which enable key secular trends in automotive, industrial, and cloud-power end-markets.

Now I'll provide details of the progress in our various end-markets for third quarter of 2020. Revenue for the automotive market in the third quarter was $419.2 million and represented 32% of our revenue in the third quarter. Third quarter automotive revenue declined by 6% year-over-year, primarily due to COVID-19 driven decline in automotive production.

We are seeing strong momentum for our Silicon Carbide offerings with additional design wins at leading OEMs and Tier-1 customers. In addition to winning new designs, we are expanding our engagement with new customers for Silicon Carbide, and we are currently sampling products to many of these customers. On the ADAS front, we continue to win designs with major global automotive players. We are also seeing a higher-level of attach rates for both ADAS and viewing applications. We are very well positioned to benefit from technology transition in automotive LiDAR to newer SiPM and SPAD technologies from APD technology. We are seeing strong traction for our LiDAR products with leading customers.

Other areas of automotive were strong as well in the third quarter. We saw strong growth in our lighting, ultrasonic, and actuator solutions. From a geographical perspective, we saw strength across all regions. Despite steep increase in automotive production, it appears that dealer inventories are low. We expect current recovery in the global automotive production to continue in the near term.

Based on our outlook and third party reports, we believe that our 2020 annual automotive revenue growth rate should exceed 2020 global light vehicle annual production growth rate by a wide margin. Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 for the automotive end-market is expected to be up quarter-over-quarter as we expect to see continuing recovery in global automotive production. The Industrial end-market, which includes military, aerospace, and medical, contributed revenue of $327.6 million in the third quarter. The Industrial end-market represented 25% of our revenue in the third quarter. Year-over-year, our third quarter industrial declined 7%. This decline was driven by reduction in global industrial activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical issues related to a specific customer.

In the industrial end-market, we are seeing strong adoption of our silicon carbide modules for solar power related applications, and we are rapidly expanding our customer base in the alternative energy market. On the industrial power front, we are seeing increasing design activity for motor control and building automation. Energy efficiency regulations that are slated to be enacted in 2021 and beyond are driving power management and motor control related activity.

Our medical business grew strongly quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter as the pace of elective procedures picked up. We continue to work with leading market players to design in our image sensors for automation and machine vision applications. We have secured additional design wins for large format image sensors for professional movie camera applications.

Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 for the industrial end-market is expected to be up quarter-over-quarter. The Communications end-market, which includes both networking and wireless, contributed revenue of $255.4 million in the third quarter, and represented 19% of our revenue during the third quarter. Third quarter communications revenue declined by 7% year-over-year.

We saw strong year-over-year growth in our 5G infrastructure business in the third quarter. Our smartphone business declined year-over-year, in part due to geopolitical factors related to a customer. Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 for the communications end-market is expected to be flat or to down quarter-over-quarter, due to expected revenue decline from customer-specific geopolitical factors.

The Computing end-market contributed revenue of $172.2 million in the third quarter. The computing end-market represented 13% of our revenue in the third quarter. Third quarter computing revenue increased by 12% year-over-year due to strength in both server and client businesses. We are seeing strength in our server power business with increasing content in new server platforms and share gains. Most leading processor makers are projecting higher current requirements in their next generation products. We expect this trajectory to continue in the near to mid-term due to increasing demand for computational capabilities, driven primarily by artificial intelligence.

Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 for the computing end-market is expected to be up quarter-over-quarter. The Consumer end-market contributed revenue of $142.9 million in the third quarter. The consumer end-market represented 11% of our revenue in the third quarter. Third quarter consumer revenue declined by 9% year-over-year. The year-over-year decline was due to broad-based weakness in the consumer electronics market due to COVID-19 pandemic and our selective participation in this market. Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 for the consumer end-market is expected to be up quarter-over-quarter.

In summary, we are accelerating our efforts to drive margin expansion. We are rationalizing our fixed cost footprint. At the same time, we are also aggressively winning designs to drive mix shift toward automotive, industrial, and cloud-power end-markets, which have higher margins.

Ramp-up of our 300 millimeter manufacturing processes at East Fishkill fab should further help in gross margin expansion. In the near term, strong revenue growth driven by ongoing recovery in our business, should contribute to margin expansion. Business conditions have improved meaningfully and we expect the improvement to continue in the near term. We are seeing broad-based recovery across most end-markets and geographies. Key secular megatrends and long-term drivers of our business remain intact, and we are excited about our medium to long-term prospects. We are seeing accelerating momentum in our key strategic initiatives for electric vehicles, robotics, factory and warehouse automation, cloud-power and ADAS.

Now, I would like to turn it back over to Bernard for forward-looking guidance. Bernard?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Keith. Based on product booking trends, backlog levels, and estimated turns levels, we anticipate that total ON Semiconductor revenue will be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020. For fourth quarter of 2020, we expect GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin between 32.9% to 34.9%.

We expect total GAAP operating expenses of $315 million to $333 million. Our GAAP operating expenses include the amortization of intangibles, restructuring, asset impairments, and other charges, which are expected to be in the $32 million to $36 million. We expect total non-GAAP operating expenses of $283 million to $297 million in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in our fourth quarter operating expenses as compared to those in the third quarter is driven by the planned reinstatement of salaries and benefits that were reduced due to decline in our business results -- resulting from COVID-19 pandemic.

In our 2020 operating expenses, the variable component of compensation was not significant. However, as we enter into 2021, we plan to accrue meaningful variable compensation with the expectation that 2021 will be a strong year. Consequently, we expect an increase of about $25 million to $30 million quarter-over-quarter in our operating expenses in the first quarter of 2021.

We anticipate fourth quarter of 2020 GAAP net other income and expense, including interest expense, will be an expense of $41 million to $44 million, which includes both non-cash interest expense of $9 million to $10 million. We anticipate that both net operating -- net other income and expense, including interest expense, will be an expense of $32 million to $34 million.

Net cash paid for income tax in fourth quarter of 2020 is expected to be $22 million to $28 million. For 2020, we expect cash paid for taxes in the range of $52 million to $58 million. We expect total capital expenditures of $100 million to $120 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. We are currently targeting an overwhelming proportion of our capex for enabling our 300 millimeter capability at an accelerated pace. We expect share based compensation of $16 million to $18 million in fourth quarter of 2020, of which approximately $3 million is expected to be in cost of goods sold and the remaining amount is expected to be in operating expenses. This expense is included in our non-GAAP financial measures.

Our GAAP diluted share count for the fourth quarter of 2020 is expected to be in the 425 million to 426 million shares, based on our current stock price. Our non-GAAP diluted share count for the fourth quarter of 2020 is expected to be 413 million shares, based on our current stock price. Further details on share count and earnings per share calculations are provided regularly in our quarterly and annual reports on Form 10-Q and Form 10-K, respectively.

With that, I would like to start the Q&A session. Thank you, and Dennis please open up the line for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] I show our first question comes from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Ross Seymore -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Congrats on the results and thanks for letting me ask a question. I want to focus both of my questions on margins. So the first one is on the gross margin side of things. I see that you're guiding to about a 50% incremental gross margin in the fourth quarter. Given that you're not changing utilization, I understand that. But, I guess, first, why aren't you changing utilization given the strength in the business? And then if we go beyond the first quarter, can you just talk about how the fab closures, the utilization increases and the 300 millimeter ramp all layer into the gross margin because I would assume it would need to be above that 50% incremental that you guided to historically and even in the fourth quarter.

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hi. Thank you, Ross for your questions. This is Bernard. We are also intending to continue working on our inventory in the short term. Our goal, [Phonetic] we don't plan on increasing our utilization substantially to keep working on that. And you are correct, as we start getting the benefits of the factory closures, we have talked about $75 million of annual savings coming from those closures or sales. The Rochester closing is on its way to be -- to being completed. And as a result we expect to get about $15 million back of annual savings starting in the first quarter of 2021.

The other two is a function of when we end up -- what we end up negotiating with the intended buyers of these two fabs and that's ongoing and in progress right now. So, yes, the answer is yes, we should expect to see better than 50% follow-through as we go through our 2020.

Ross Seymore -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Great. Thanks for those details. And then as my follow-up question, again sticking on the margin front, but moving to the opex side of things. I think everybody understands why you had variable comp down this year and why it would step up sequentially in the first quarter. But if I look at it year-over-year, it's basically flat is what you're guiding. There might have been some COVID-related impacts in the first quarter of 2020. But given the structural changes and cost cuts you guys announced earlier this year, I'm still struggling to figure out why the guidance for opex in the first quarter of '21 would be flat year-over-year?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So the -- as I said -- as we said in the prepared remarks, we have no variable comp in any quarters in 2020 as well as 2019. So we're basically -- we did take significant cost reduction actions, some temporary and some permanent, and right now the variable comp will be layers. Obviously that depends on the business results. If the next year points in the direction of being a strong year, which is what our assumptions are, then we should have a significant addition on variable comp. If, obviously, the year is not in that direction, then we will not.

Ross Seymore -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Chris Danely -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Hey, guys. Just a quick clarification on the gross margin. So why was it 50 basis points better than the guide. Was that all revenue upside or was there some mix or pricing or something else that was driving it higher?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Mostly revenue upside.

Chris Danely -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Got it. And then any update on the CEO search?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

It's ongoing and there's nothing to announce at this time.

Chris Danely -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Chris Caso -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Just a question on inventory and what you're planning on doing with production. Could you give us a sense of where you would like both the channel inventory and your internal inventory to get to before you increase utilization? And generally, what's the reason for the more cautious approach to inventory right now?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So the inventory we have on the channel, we said in prepared remarks we took it down two weeks. We are within our comfort range. So we feel good going into next year that we have been at an appropriate level for that. Internal inventories, we peaked in the second quarter at 140 days, decreased it to 133 days in the third quarter and we think there is still room to continue gradually decreasing it into the fourth quarter.

Chris Caso -- Raymond James -- Analyst

All right. As a follow-up on the automotive market, I guess that now you're running sort of down mid to high single digits year-on-year. Last quarter you talked about anticipating that the customers would be running at full production in the second half of the year. Could you give us an update of that? Where are your customers running regarding their own production? And I guess with that, what's the gap between if the customers are kind of getting back to normal and you're still down year-on-year, what's the delta there and what should kind of get you back to flat year-on-year as it eventually grows?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Yeah. So we believe that the auto customers will be largely running at pre-COVID levels here in the fourth quarter. And really the only difference, if there is any, would be change in inventory in the supply chain. There was definitely some caution in the supply chain as that COVID-19 went in and I would expect that in '21 it would start replenishing even above auto rates.

Chris Caso -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Raji Gill from Needham & Company. Please go ahead.

Raji Gill -- Needham & Company -- Analyst

Yes. Thank you and congrats as well on solid results. Regarding the momentum in the automotive business, you talked about outgrowing auto production by a wide margin. Obviously we're going to see a rebound in auto production post COVID. But on top of that, what's driving the wide margin commentary, specifically in sensors and EV? Any color there would be helpful in terms of how much semiconductor content you're going to layer on top of that rebound production.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Yeah. So I think the two topics from an ADAS perspective we're seeing a significant amount of the production move to level two which has quite a bit more dollar content, kind of goes from $10 at level one $150 at level two. So we're seeing that transition would drive a very significant growth above the SARs rate. And then on the electric vehicles, there will be more electric vehicles, still dominated by internal combustion, but nonetheless more vehicles. And again the content there goes from $40, $50 up to $500. So those -- if you look at both of those things their order of magnitudes change. And so as a result of that, we would expect a very significant outgrowing.

Raji Gill -- Needham & Company -- Analyst

And just for my follow-up, I know you can't provide more guidance, but if we're looking at gross margin trajectory, if you look at the margins in 2019, they were kind of at 36% for the year-end. Obviously, it took a big dip in the first half of this year because of COVID, but you're kind of moving back. So how do we think about the margins in 2021 getting back to kind of normal, maybe more normalized levels of what we saw in 2019 and then kind of moving beyond that? Is it really going to be a function of the revenue? I know you talked about the closure of that fab, East Fishkill [Phonetic] fab. But should we be expecting to get back to kind of 2019 levels and beyond as we progress into 2021?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Depends on a lot of factors but the same premises that we have put to work in the past hold true. We do expect the 50% fall-through on just a few revenue changes and expect that 2021 will be a good year in terms of revenue. We will layer on top of that the mix savings with the premise that our revenue growth in automotive, in industrial, in cloud power, which all have better than corporate average gross margin will contribute to fill [Phonetic] with some gross margin. And as mentioned earlier, in response to another call -- question, we do expect to get the savings from the factory sale or closures that we have announced previously.

And last but not least, we do still have some lingering COVID costs in our numbers. We expect that most of those will take a while till that you get those two, namely logistics and freight costs. As the pressures on that eases out, we should also get a little bit of tailwind in addition to what I just mentioned earlier.

Raji Gill -- Needham & Company -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Vijay Rakesh -- Mizuho -- Analyst

Yeah. Hi. Good morning, guys. Just a couple of questions here on the disti side. I know you talked about September quarter disti inventory coming down two weeks. Typically 4Q inventories go down. Just wondering what you're seeing in terms of distributor inventories exiting 4Q versus where normal levels are. Thanks.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

I'm not sure I got all of that question. Audio issues on our side, but we brought the disti inventory down in the third quarter to kind of the low end of our normal operating ranges. So we're not looking to take it down substantially from there but kind of hold it toward that lower end. We think this does give us more flexibility, particularly if the market is more robust than we're seeing right now. So that's the plan. Does that get to your question, Vijay?

Vijay Rakesh -- Mizuho -- Analyst

Yeah. It does. Thanks a lot. And one other question here. On the gross margin side, obviously there are some near-term costs, logistics -- COVID logistics costs and operational cost. Just wondering what the headwind from those are and do you see those subside as you go into first half next year? Thanks.

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Definitely much less than what we had in the first and second quarter. The lingering costs are more logistics. It will normalize when we see airlines flying again. So that's mostly commercial. So that's a big question mark. So, probably it's going to be more protracted but it's much less than what we have seen in the first half of the year. So it's just some lingering headwind, not significant.

Vijay Rakesh -- Mizuho -- Analyst

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Christopher Rolland from Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Christopher Rolland -- Susquehanna -- Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. I guess, first, following up on the automotive side of things and silicon carbide. Can you talk about the pipeline there after your win on silicon carbide and then also how we should think about IGBTs and your position there?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So we continue to see wins for both IGBTs and silicon carbide. It's maybe oversimplified but in the lower lifetime or smaller cars the IGBT is still the dominant solution. In the more powerful cars designed with munch longer range, silicon carbide is becoming the predominant solution. So we have wins at many different Tier-1s and OEMs at this stage for both IGBTs and silicon carbide.

Christopher Rolland -- Susquehanna -- Analyst

Great. And I was wondering if you could give us an update on your footprint consolidation. I guess, any update on Belgium and any other updates in terms of targets or potential opportunities.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

In Belgium, we are having, what I would call, the final round of negotiations right now and expect that we -- during the quarter, we'll be able to find solutions there. In Niigata, there is still process ongoing and that will probably ease into the New Year.

Christopher Rolland -- Susquehanna -- Analyst

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Craig Ellis from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Craig Ellis -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst

Yeah. Thanks so much for taking the questions. And I'll just ask a couple of follow-ups. First on gross margin. So it's clear that it's hard to handicap the exact timing of a fab sale. But, gentlemen, I'm wondering if you can just help us scope the amount of $75 million in COGS efficiency gains that you would expect to get in calendar '21 not by quarter, but just overall. How much of that could be realized in '21 and then how much would come through in calendar '22?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It's a tough question, Craig. Definitely we can talk about the Rochester one which is close to $50 million that will start immediately in Q1. The other is still a function of what we end up negotiating with the buying parties in terms of MSA that will drive what those savings are. Typically the closure of a fab takes somewhere in the 18 to 24 months. Obviously we have been already working on it.

Craig Ellis -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst

Got it. And then if I could just bundle two follow-ups together, Bernard. The first is to Ross' question. Beyond the first quarter, which not only would include discretionary comp, but also things like FICA what should we expect from 2Q through 4Q? Do you actually get some opex decreases in the back half of the year as FICA goes away? And then with the debt paydown in the fourth quarter, the convert, what should we expect for interest expense in the first calendar quarter?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Let me start from the last question first. Interest expense, we intend to continue paying down debt as we generate a good amount of free cash flow next year. So it's just a function of how much that debt is paid down. Definitely the paydown of the $690 million will be a little bit of interest away. So expect the trend of interest expense to go down over time.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

The opex.

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

The opex -- the opex trend, we expect this step function improvement or increase in opex in the first quarter. And indeed, you're correct, in addition to that there is within that assumption a timing or seasonality of FICA and other US-based payroll expenses. So I don't expect that the expenses will go up more materially for the rest of the year, may trend mostly flat.

Craig Ellis -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay from Cowen. Please go ahead.

Josh Buchalter -- Cowen -- Analyst

Hi. This is Josh Buchalter on behalf of Matt Ramsay. Congrats on the results. And Keith congratulations on your retirement. I guess I want to start on the -- on the last call you mentioned you weren't expecting to see any underutilization charges in the second half. Can you confirm this is still the case, given you're keeping utilizations flat and inventory, it sounds like, are going to trend downwards?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Obviously with the disclaimer that we don't control what governments do. So at this stage, we don't expect there is no mandated shelter-in-place and mandates from government. So if that continues, we expect that we will not see any additional COVID related period expenses. [Indecipherable]

Josh Buchalter -- Cowen -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And then I guess a bigger-picture question. When you made plans in that 300 millimeter fab, it was obviously a very different environment. I'm just wondering if any of your strategic assumptions or plans changed for the new environment of porting volumes through this fab since the deal was announced a year and a half ago. Thanks and congrats again.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

No. We continue to be excited about that addition to our network. And so from that perspective, we continue to get qualifications of products, processes and customers through there and continue to enjoy the ramp that we envision. The only change I would get is maybe a little more acceleration on closure of some of the other factories that has been brought about by the overall lower environment that COVID brought.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Toshiya Hari -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I had two as well. First of all, you guys talked about geopolitical factors having impact on your business in Q3 and I do believe in Q4 guidance as well. If you could confirm how meaningful the headwinds were associated with geopolitical factors in Q3 and what's embedded in your Q4 guidance that would be helpful. Thank you.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

In Q3 there certainly was an impact, but primarily in Q4 until licenses are granted the answer is there is no business at all and they were one of the top customers.

Toshiya Hari -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Got it. And then as a quick follow-up, I wanted to double click on gross margins as well. In the past you guys have talked to a 40%-plus long-term target for gross margins. I guess, A, is that still the case, is that still very much intact? And, B, to the extent it is, I was hoping you could rank order the drivers that get you there. I think throughout this call, you talked about obviously Rochester, which is done. You've got to Belgium. You're rationalizing or optimizing your portfolio. You've got the 300 millimeter transition. And obviously you've got the COVID costs which hopefully go away over time. So if you can rank order some of the drivers as you think about gross margin expansion over the next couple of years that would be helpful. Thank you.

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Pretty much summarized them very well for us. Thank you. Definitely, when we did our model, which actually was 43%, not 40%, it was predicated on a $7.1 billion revenue. We believe that that still holds true. So we do have a good amount of catch-up from the current levels of $5.15 billion to that level with the fact that we have -- that we have a good fall-through on that that still holds true. Have footprint consolidation as well as the benefits of the 300 millimeter in the outyears will also be a significant factor. And mix, as the third one, is the one that will also help us get there.

Toshiya Hari -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Harsh Kumar from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Harsh Kumar -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Yeah. Hey, guys. Congratulations first of all. Two questions. First of all, would you be able to give us some color on, particularly the automotive and the industrial markets? I know you said they should be up. But maybe help us think about how we should think about modeling them. And then another part of that same question. You talked about distribution inventory in auto. How many weeks excess do you think, if at all, there is in the system, particularly in auto?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Okay. I'll start with the auto. I believe that distribution in entire supply chain there, there is no excess going into fourth quarter. I think that's largely been taken care of. In fact, if anything may have undershot and set us up for next year having to do replenishment. So that market and the supply chain there is lean at this stage and I don't know any pockets of fairness. As I mentioned earlier, we expect auto production rates in Q4 to be largely back to where they were in 2019. So again, by quarter-over-quarter that is still an improvement from Q3.

From an industrial perspective, we're seeing recovery there. We think, again, largely the excess supply is out of the channel, but there is no rebuilding that we can see. So moderate recovery on industrial.

Harsh Kumar -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Understood. And then your closure of fabs, you mentioned you cited three, I think, in total. Maybe help us understand where is this production going to? Is it going to Fishkill? And on a scale of one to 10, if you say prior to you getting control of Fishkill if 10 is kind of like where you want to be, where do you think you are at this point in time?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So most of the production in those two particular factories are going into our other internal fabs and what we're doing is taking selective high-volume runners out of the other internal fabs and moving into East Fishkill. So a little bit of a two-step process to get into EFK.

And relative to 10 is full ownership and full running, we are at this stage down around two. We're just starting our ramp in manufacturing there in the third quarter and ramping from there.

Harsh Kumar -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Mark Lipacis from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Mark Lipacis -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I had a question about the process of shutting down or selling a factory. When you're transferring parts from your old facilities to your new facilities, can you describe what the qualification process is like? How long does that take? Or is it a matter of practice for you that parts that you at -- primarily make at one factory you also are always qualifying them at other factories just for redundancy sake and that's not a big deal to requalify parts? That's the first question. I had a follow-up too.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Okay. So for the first one, most of our high-volume processes have more than one factory to run in just from a supply chain risk perspective. For those products in essence take these specific products that you're running that may not be in the alternate factory. You have to run some reliability tests and you have to run those by your customers. And for those processes, it's anywhere from 182 days to a year.

For other processes that don't have as much volume, we do have to first bring up the process in the new factory. That can take anywhere from nine months to a year, then you have to run the same qualifications. So that gets you kind of out in the two-year range for that. We had started moving things for the factories that we're talking about here before we announced those transactions. And so we're well into that second phase now getting the customers qualified. By the selling of the factories in our customer agreements, there will be some amount of time required. We will still take product from those factories. But you're now down into that kind of 18 months or so range.

Mark Lipacis -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Got you. That's very helpful. And longer term, Keith, as you work your way to your gross margin bogey, does your -- do you think that translates to a higher internal mix or higher outsource foundry mix on the front end at the [Speech Overlap]?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So the front end -- yeah, the front end part will become more external but that's less to do with the consolidation and more to do with some of our fastest-growing products used [Phonetic] nodes that we use foundries for.

Mark Lipacis -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Got you. Thank you very much. Very helpful.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Harlan Sur -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Has the East Fishkill fab in auto grade qualified? And if not, when you guys expect to achieve qualification? And then in terms of revenues today from Fishkill, what products and end markets are you shipping into?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So today we're shipping primarily into industrial with some automotive content out of EFK. So we are qualified for both.

Harlan Sur -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Great. And then Keith with 13 to 15 week lead times on average, you guys are booking into the March quarter. You also have a good view on customer forecast as well. I believe normal seasonality for the team is flat to down a couple of percentage points in March. You talked about above seasonal demand trends near term. Wondering if you're seeing this in the orders for the March quarter.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Yes. Orders are good and the comments we've made on above market seasonality will extend past this year.

Harlan Sur -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

John Pitzer -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Yeah. Thanks for letting me ask the question. Keith, maybe just a follow-on there to Harlan's second question. When you think about the calendar first quarter is there enough leverage above seasonal revenue growth and gross margin leverage that you can have op margins be flattish despite the increase in opex? And if that's not the case, why isn't variable comp more tied to profitability? Why not wait until later on in '21 to reestablish some of the variable comp?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So we really don't want to give guidance for Q1. We do it one quarter at a time. What I will tell you is, certainly, we would expect revenues to continue to increase nicely throughout next year. And the way accounting works you have to accrue for the entire year at the expected rate for the year, even though you may have a quarter somewhere in there that doesn't fully meet the objectives.

John Pitzer -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

That's helpful. And then back to the auto side, when you look calendar year '17 to '18 SAARs was down a little bit in '18, but you guys significantly outgrow -- outgrew the market almost by 10 percentage points. I'm just kind of curious, given how weak the auto sector has been for you and the overall semi market since really the end of calendar year '18, '19 was down, '20 is going to end up being down. How are you viewing your outgrowth to SAARs as we go into calendar year '21? And do you have kind of a view you can give us on what you think SAARs growth will be next year?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So the answer is yeah. We [Indecipherable] actually wide margins, as I mentioned in my comments, very significant with the drivers being more level two cars on ADAS and a higher percentage of EV. From a SAARs perspective, we tend to try and be conservative on that and look for kind of 2019 levels next year on a SARS basis. But, again, we think we have been outperforming the overall SAARs in 2020. We think the supply chain did lean out which took some of that margin away. But in 2021, as I mentioned earlier, we think there may have to be some restocking to hit the full levels as appropriate.

John Pitzer -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

So, Keith, if in '18 you had grew SAARs by 10 percentage points, do you think '21 is setting up to be an '18 FD [Phonetic] year for you?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

I think the opportunity for double-digit outperformance is there.

John Pitzer -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Kevin Cassidy from Rosenblatt Securities. Please go ahead.

Kevin Cassidy -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. Just going back to factory utilization. Is there any more efficiency coming in? Can you get higher gross margin at the same utilization, say, compared to a couple of years ago?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

There will be some help that comes from that, from mix as we have talked about, but definitely we will depend on -- a lot on revenue increases.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

I would just add that as we're looking for the other traditional lever is pricing and of course '19 was not necessarily a good year but as we're seeing -- '20, excuse me, was not a good year. But '21 is shaping up to be a little better pricing environment.

Kevin Cassidy -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

Okay. Great. And just one follow-up, kind of on that qualification process. You can have your internal qualifications. Does your customers -- has there been any change in the qualification process relative to the customers? Do they just agree with your data up from your manufacturing or do they want to test the parts too?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Most of them agree with our reliability data. They don't need to duplicate that. But they do need to verify the products are still functioning exactly the same way in their applications. So that takes them -- that's part of the six-month kind of check that they've got to do on their side.

Kevin Cassidy -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of David O'Connor from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

David O'Connor -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Great. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Maybe to go back on the 10 point outperformance, Keith, that you mentioned. You talked about ADAS and EV as being the main contributors. As we exit 2020, can you give us a sense of how big these are now for the business? And I have a follow-up.

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So sensors, the ADAS sensors, about 20% of our total automotive. The electric piece is smaller, but we haven't disclosed how much it is. But we know it's going to ramp up with a very strong and fast pace in '21 and beyond.

David O'Connor -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

That's helpful. And then maybe as my follow-up. On the 300 millimeter East Fishkill fab, you talked about the spectacular yields there. Which are those high-volume products where you're seeing these yields and is there an opportunity to pull in the ramp-up there given you seem to be ahead of schedule? Thanks.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Yeah. So our first products to ramp there are medium voltage MOSFETs and then followed by our IGBTs. And we are ramping that pretty much at the pace our customers are qualifying at this stage.

David O'Connor -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Tristan Gerra from Baird. Please go ahead.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon. Given the lead time is sort of still somewhat elevated in parts of your business at least industrywide and given your utilization rates are below normal level, are there opportunities for you to gain actually market share because your utilization rates being below, will actually be an opportunity to over ship in areas where some of your competitors may be tight or I might not looking at this the correct way?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

No, I think we do have some upside opportunities with extra capacity in the factories. We're actually -- the inventory positions we're taking are really ensuring that that excess capacity can go directly to the customers that may have opportunity to grow a little faster. And I mentioned earlier, the ADAS and EV side of it, particularly those we think maybe due for some additional inventory in the channel.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Okay. Great. And then just a quick follow-up. I know you haven't quantified the dilution from Quantenna. Is it fair to assume that it's now worse than the initial dilution that the business was incurring right after the close? And are you giving any consideration to taking additional action on that business besides just waiting for the new product ramp?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So there has not been appreciable decline in that business if that's where you're headed. So I'm not sure where that came from. So we're not seeing additional declines and we are seeing the backlog and design pipeline picking up.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I show next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Vivek Arya -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Thank you for taking my question. Keith, I had a conceptual question on gross margins. When I look at gross margins in the power discrete industry, they tend to be at best around high 30%s even for the largest companies in the space such as Infineon who have been running 300 millimeter fabs for quite some time. And when I look at ON's history, gross margins have never really exceeded 38%, 39%. And even then quarterly revenues were much higher than current levels.

So how much of the gross margin dynamics are just the result of selling certain kinds of products which says that there is a limit to how much you can expand gross margin regardless of revenue levels of fab closures of 300 millimeter capability. So I just wanted to run this hypothesis by you.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So simple answer there is when we gave our expectations for being able to reach 43%, it fully comprehended the product mix and market mix that we see here. And while there is some number of bps which we disclosed on mix per se, but from a product perspective, we still think you can get over 40%. It does take a leaning out of our manufacturing, which we are in the process of and getting the utilization rates up. But we don't think inherently that power business is stuck in the 30%s. We definitely think we can get that into 40%s.

The other piece of that equation is a lot of the new EV stuff is in modules and there we think the opportunity for the modules is for better margin than the discrete devices.

Vivek Arya -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Got it. Very helpful. And Keith, as my follow-up, in terms of the competitive landscape, just given US and China trade tensions do you see any headwinds to gaining share in China, i.e. that share perhaps going more to your European or Japanese competitors? Like have you -- other than Huawei, have you seen any effect of trade tension so far or do you anticipate any effects going into next year? Thank you.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

I think there will be more reluctance for customers to accept sole source positions from US based companies as a result of the trade tensions. I still think they're very wise economic buyers and they are going to do the best thing for the company. But they certainly don't want to be completely reliant on a US supplier.

Vivek Arya -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

But do you see share shifting to European competitors?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

We certainly saw at the account you mentioned. Elsewhere we have not seen it.

Vivek Arya -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Shawn Harrison from Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Shawn Harrison -- Loop Capital -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Keith, for you. Are you seeing anything either on the -- that raw material supplier, kind of, I guess the foundry supply as well given kind of -- do you see they speak to distributors. You read in the press about some pre-buying of either materials or capacity next year just given the trade tensions.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So we've seen some tightness in some things like substrates in the communications market. I think that's fairly widespread. I think the expansion there is slower than the market itself has been growing. And there is certainly some tightness in spot areas in the foundry market. But overall, the supply chain is in pretty good shape.

Shawn Harrison -- Loop Capital -- Analyst

Very helpful. And, Bernard, as a follow-up. Just if you could speak to how you're thinking about the return of the share buyback in '21? What's either maybe a leverage ratio you're looking at or some type of metric before a share buyback could return?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Shawn. So historically, what we have done is we have focused on paying down debt until we reach about a two times net leverage. And obviously, we need to get concurrence from our Board to continue with the same strategy. But that would be the general approach toward a share buyback.

Shawn Harrison -- Loop Capital -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nik Todorov from Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

Nik Todorov -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Once you guys complete three front-end fab optimizations, can you maybe talk about approximately what revenue level you'll be at full utilization of your non-300 millimeter footprint?

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

That's a difficult question. I'm not sure I have the answer for that because a lot of it will depend on the mix. Definitely it was upwards toward sweet spot of 25% [Phonetic] which is where we like to operate at.

Nik Todorov -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Craig Hettenbach from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Craig Hettenbach -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Yes. I had a question on silicon carbide. Naturally, a lot of the discussion is around EVs, but Keith, from an industrial perspective, can you talk about any interesting applications or opportunities you see in the industrial market?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Yeah. We're seeing big pickup in solar energy. The pickups that you get there from an efficiency perspective are pretty significant. We have an opportunity for about $650 worth of silicon carbide there. And then, in EV charging, so not the traction inverters, but actual charging stations, we're also seeing opportunities for up to $500 there.

Craig Hettenbach -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Got it. And then, just a follow-up on just the geopolitical issues with the customers, is that something that you expect ultimately, revenue will go to another OEM and that could be opportunity at some point next year?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

The way the rules are written, it's unclear if anyone can ship without a license. And so, that's at least our interpretation. And so, I think right now, the license process is most critical to answering who might be providing [Indecipherable]. And we should benefit if the shift -- the share [Phonetic] shift is to other customers of ours there is the opportunity for us to also take advantage of that and widen -- get that wider in our approach.

Craig Hettenbach -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. I show our next question comes from the line of Craig Ellis from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Craig Ellis -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst

Yeah, thanks for taking the follow-up questions. Keith, I wanted to start just going back to some of your end-market commentary. You mentioned that in cloud power, there should be some surplus share gain and content gain. So, I wanted to see if we could get some specifics around that for calendar '21? And then also in cloud power, what is your interaction with base station customers signaling for base station production next year and what does that mean for growth in that part of cloud power?

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Okay. So one is kind of share gain and generation change cloud power content and the second one is what kind of ramps we're seeing in base stations if I got that correct?

Craig Hettenbach -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Right, yeah.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

So, kind of going from the backbone, the base station, basically China, is driving most of that growth and we do see some significant growth there in China. US, maybe late in '21, moving into '22 will become much more substantial. From a cloud server perspective, we get about $60 out of the current generation in our content, and it goes to $75 with the VR14 which are coming out next year.

Craig Ellis -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst

That's great. And then the follow-up is on IMM. So it seems like right now, medical, military and energy efficiency are good areas of strength, but we know that in industrial there are areas of weakness too, energy extraction, etc., etc. No different than 2009 when industrial broadly was probably the last end market to come off the bottom. The question is this, when do you think that segment broadly will be back to good growth? Is that something that could happen in the first half of '21 or is that really something that would happen later next year? Thank you.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Yeah. Okay, so the broad base piece of it should improve. We've always seen that kind of following the GDP in general. What we do see different in industrial is then, Craig, is that the automation has actually been, I believe, accelerated by COVID-19 and the experiences companies had there. They're looking for much more automation, both in assembly and in their warehouses to kind of make its dependence on people less. And so that would be -- kind of like in automotive we see electric vehicles and ADAS being a supercharger. I think, in this case, automation is the supercharger for industrial.

Craig Ellis -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst

That's helpful and congrats on the retirement, Keith.

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I show no further questions in the queue. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Parag Agarwal, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development for closing. Please go ahead, sir.

Parag Agarwal -- Vice President-Investor Relations and Corporate Development

Thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. We look forward to seeing you at various virtual conferences during the fourth quarter. Goodbye.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 70 minutes

Call participants:

Parag Agarwal -- Vice President-Investor Relations and Corporate Development

Bernard Gutmann -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Keith D. Jackson -- President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of ON Semiconductor Corporation

Ross Seymore -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Chris Danely -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Chris Caso -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Raji Gill -- Needham & Company -- Analyst

Vijay Rakesh -- Mizuho -- Analyst

Christopher Rolland -- Susquehanna -- Analyst

Craig Ellis -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst

Josh Buchalter -- Cowen -- Analyst

Toshiya Hari -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Harsh Kumar -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Mark Lipacis -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Harlan Sur -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

John Pitzer -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Kevin Cassidy -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

David O'Connor -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Vivek Arya -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Shawn Harrison -- Loop Capital -- Analyst

Nik Todorov -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Craig Hettenbach -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

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