Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO -2.10%)
Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Feb 17, 2021, 10:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Vornado Realty Trust fourth-quarter 2020 earnings call. My name is Karen. I will be your operator for today's call. This call is being recorded for replay purposes.

[Operator instructions] I will now turn the call over to Ms. Cathy Creswell, director of investor relations. Please go ahead.

Cathy Creswell -- Director of Investor Relations

Thank you. Welcome to Vornado Realty Trust's fourth-quarter earnings call. Yesterday afternoon, we issued our fourth-quarter earnings release and filed our annual report on Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These documents, as well as, our supplemental financial information package are available on our website, www.vno.com, under the investor relations section.

In these documents and during today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release, Form 10-K, and financial supplement. Please be aware that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and other factors. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2020, for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties.

The call may include time-sensitive information that may be accurate only as of today's date. The company does not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements. On the call today from management for our opening comments are Steven Roth, chairman and chief executive officer; and Michael Franco, president and chief financial officer. Our senior team is also present and available for questions.

I will now turn the call over to Steven Roth.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everyone. I hope all of you continue to be safe and healthy. Before Michael gets into the business review and the numbers, let me make a few comments. Notwithstanding that this is a new year, 2021 still feels a lot like 2020.

The COVID pandemic remains a significant health risk. Normal life continues to be disrupted, gatherings and travel are still restricted, and office building occupancy remains quite low. But there is light at the end of this long tunnel. Scientists and farmers around the world have worked at warp speed.

And with the rollout of various vaccines expected to accelerate in the coming months, we expect New York to begin to rebound, with office workers and tourists returning in the second half. While New York's recovery will take some time, the city remains a magnet for talent, as evidenced by leading companies renewing their leases and making large new space commitments even during the pandemic. For all the talk about working from home, I continue to believe that our natural zoom and social inclinations and the pent-up demand to interact, gather and experience all the city has to offer will carry the day. When life returns to normalcy, the many positives of having employees working in the same space together with their colleagues will become self-evident.

In the end, I believe that working at home in once kitchen alone, day after day, week after week is not a long-term proposition. We have a new administration in Washington which is committed to push through significant additional stimulus and New York will certainly get its fair share. These dollars and the potential to modify or partially reverse SALT, if that actually were to happen, will greatly benefit New York and other large cities. Despite 2020 being one of the most challenging years in our lifetime, we have made significant progress to position Vornado for future growth.

In 2020, we closed $1 billion of apartments at 220 Central Park South. That's a big number which was added to our cash balances and enhanced our financial strength. Remember, we are building Farley and PENN 1 off our balance sheet without debt. In December 2020, the grand new Moynihan train opened to the public to rave reviews, further cementing PENN as the transportation center of New York and our PENN District as the bull's eye.

Vornado was honored to be a major participant in the Moynihan public-private partnership. In 2020 at the height of the pandemic, we completed our lease with Facebook for all 730,000 square feet of the office portion at Farley. This lease was the largest office lease in New York last year. The first phase of Facebook space was delivered in January and the remainder will be delivered later this year.

The new Long Island Railroad 33rd Street entrants situated between PENN 1 and PENN 2 also opened in December. Its design is futuristic and unique, and exciting and that is intentional. In December, we finalized our agreement with the MTA to develop the Long Island Railroad Concourse. The retail stores are on the north side of the complex are ours and sit in our PENN 1 footprint.

This project will double the width of the concourse, relieve overcrowding, raise the ceiling to a grand 18 feet, and create a vastly improved concourse for the hundreds of thousands of commuters who use in each day. Construction is now under way and our retail has been taken out of service. As part of the deal here, we will gain long-term control of an additional 22,000 square feet of retail on the south side of the concourse. So we now have all the retail along both sides of the heavily trafficked Long Island Railroad Concourse.

By the way, in normal times, PENN Station is teeming with traffic and our retail stores do really, really well here. In 2021, we will deliver in phases our redevelopment of the 2.6 million square foot PENN 1. This game changer will include 200,000 square feet of amenities, the likes of which are unparalleled in New York. We are targeting summer time opening of the 34th Street lobby, with full completion shortly thereafter.

Also in this year, our dramatic redevelopment of the 1.8 million square foot PENN 2 will be in full swing. Sitting here today, we are more confident than ever in our design and programming of the 4.4 million square foot campus at the combined PENN 1 and PENN 2. With unique and outstanding architectural design and amenities sitting on top of New York's main transportation hub, with Apple and Facebook tenancies in other of our adjacent buildings and with the Governor's plan for significant additional investment in the PENN Station area, we couldn't be more excited. To showcase our vision for the district, we have just opened our new PENN District experience center.

Actually, that's a fancy word for sales center, located on the seventh floor at PENN 1, appropriately in the heart of the action. This 12,000 square foot marketing center is the best I've ever seen. It will be the venue for our leasing and development teams to present and showcase our projects to the brokerage community and prospective tenants. Early comments from brokers and tenants have been amazingly enthusiastic.

When gatherings are again permitted, we look forward to hosting all of you. In the meantime, please visit our website for the latest images of our plans for the PENN District. We update our development yields once a year and have done so for the PENN District on Page 31 of our supplement filed last evening. Overall, the projected yields on these projects has declined modestly from 8.3% to 8%.

Let me explain. Folly declined 100 basis points, largely from additional TIs we granted Facebook to close the deal during the pandemic. We also are budgeting additional DIs for retailers at Folly, given the environment. It was heroic to close the Facebook lease in the middle of the pandemic and it is an outstanding deal that we are proud of.

Facebook loves Folly, at scale, its location, its architecture, and its huge floorplate. At PENN 1, we increased the budget to include the Long Island Railroad Concourse redevelopment which I just mentioned, as well as, two sustainability initiatives we have added to the scope at PENN 1. We are replacing all single pane glazing with new state of the art triple pane high energy performance windows which will dramatically improve energy loss, sound infiltration, and tenant comfort. We are also increasing the scope of PENN 1 to include an electrification program to enable the building to access more clean renewable energy.

These initiatives should command higher rents. But to be conservative, we haven't adjusted for that in the budget. At PENN 2, the returns actually increased as we scrub the numbers with respect to expense and tax assumptions. As Farley, PENN 1 and PENN 2 come online, they will deliver very significant incremental earnings.

As you will notice, we did not publish an NAV estimate this year as we had for the past several years. I foreshadowed this in my shareholders letter last April, as every analyst does their own estimate anyway and the market didn't seem to be placing much value on ours. As previously announced in the fourth quarter, we implemented a program to reduce our G&A by $35 million. While difficult, this was the right thing to do.

In connection with this, two of our below long-tenured executives, David Greenbaum and Joe MacNow, stepped back at year-end from day-to-day roles and became senior advisors. Vordano is indebted to them and thank them for their immense contributions. Glen Weiss and Barry Langer, our long expanding heads of leasing and development, now have leadership roles as co-heads of Real Estate. Actually, they have been functioning as co-heads for over a year now and are successors to David.

Michael Franco has taken on the additional role of CFO, succeeding Joe. And Tom Sanelli has been appointed chief administrator officer, stepping up from CFO of the New York Office division, taking on additional responsibilities on our financial division. This is all a continuation of our leadership transition that we began in April 2019. I am confident that our talented next-generation of leaders are seasoned, proven, and up to the task.

A word about ESG. We continue to be industry leader on sustainability. ESG remains our highest priority for all of us at Vornado and is further supported with oversight from our board. The risks related to climate change are imminent.

We are determined to reduce our carbon footprint. We lead by example, to Envision 2030, our 10-year plan to make our buildings carbon neutral which starts with our commitment to reducing our energy consumption 50% below a 2009 base year. I would note that since 2009, we have achieved a 24% energy reduction over the 10-year period through 2019. We have a seat at the table with climate policymakers at city, state, and federal levels to advise not only on what role buildings must play in climate change mitigation, and even more importantly, on how to execute.

We've also led with robust disclosure of our ESG data with early adoption of SASB standards release of our EEO data and climate scenario analysis according to the recommendations of the task force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures or TCFD. Our 2020 ESG report will be released in tandem with my shareholders later in April. I finish with a shout out and a thank you to our amazing and talented Vornado people, to our leasing teams who did the Facebook, and NYU deals which, by the way, were the two largest deals in 2020, to our development teams responsible for Farley, PENN 1, and PENN 2, and more, and to our operations teams who follow all protocols and have our buildings sanitized are ready to welcome our tenants home. You are all a plus, at the head of the class and we say thank you.

Now to Michael.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I too hope you're all safe and healthy. I'll first cover our financial results and then end with a few comments on the leasing and capital markets. Fourth-quarter FFO as adjusted was $0.66 per share, compared to $0.89 for last year's fourth quarter, a decrease of $0.23.

This decrease is reconciled for you in our earnings release on Page 5 and in our financial supplement on Page 7. It was driven by a few items. Roughly one-half which is $0.12 from our variable businesses still being offline, roughly 20% which is $0.05 from taking PENN district space out of service, and the balance from the JCPenney lease rejection and Manhattan Mall and other tenant issues, offset by some interest savings. None of these items are new news and are right in line with our statements over the past couple of quarters.

Furthermore, most of these are temporary and the income will return over time. On January 29th, we issued a press release summarizing fourth-quarter noncomparable items for both net income and FFO. The biggest item was a $236.3 million noncash impairment loss, relating primarily to wholly owned retail properties as required by GAAP accounting. With respect to rent collections, in the fourth quarter, rent collections, excluding deferrals, improved 200 basis points to 95%, driven by a significant pickup in retail collections.

The breakdown is we collected 97% of office rents and 88% of retail rents, excluding deferrals. January and February collections are running at the same level. While the average headline same-store cash NOI numbers are negative on their face, our core New York office business actually was a positive 1.4%. When you blend in Chicago and San Francisco also, our office business overall was essentially flat at negative 0.4%.

The big takeaway here is that our core office business, representing over 80% of the company, is continuing to perform well in this challenging environment, protected by long-term leases with credit tenants. Let me also comment on our retail cash basis NOI. If you annualize fourth-quarter retail cash basis NOI of $34.3 million, as shown on Page 15 of the supplement, you get $137 million. That's a good run rate number to use for 2021.

Please don't consider this guidance. But given the potential NOI leasing of vacant space and the properties under development, we expect this number to grow from here, absent any further tenant bankruptcies. Finally, a number of you asked for the breakdown of our previously announced $35 million overhead reduction program by period for modeling purposes. Again, while we do not give guidance, here it is.

2020's G&A, as published yesterday, was $159 million, excluding the one-time costs associated with the overhead reduction program. 2021 G&A is budgeted at $141 million, an $18 million reduction. 2022 will benefit from a further reduction of $9 million, and thereafter, by a reduction of $1.6 million. The total of these reductions is $28.6 million.

In addition, there are $6.4 million of reductions budgeted for 2021 that do not flow through G&A from lower operating expenses and capitalized payroll. While 2020 was a difficult year, we have planted the seeds for significant growth once the city begins to return to a normal level of activity. In addition to the savings we will realize from the $35 million overhead reduction program we executed in December, we expect significant growth from the return of our variable businesses and the Farley building fully coming online in 2022, followed by the redeveloped PENN 1 and PENN 2, and reduced interest costs as we roll over our debt. Now turning to leasing markets.

2020 office leasing activity and metrics were greatly impacted by the pandemic across all three of our markets. Total leasing volume across Manhattan was the lowest since 2000, while new leasing activity was at an all-time record low of 12.3 million square feet. Negative net absorption during the year, driven by sub lease space being put on the market, led to an increase in the overall availability rate. This sublease space will certainly present a near-term challenge to stabilizing net effective rents.

While tenant rents have come down in a measured way, concessions have spiked, though we believe now have generally stabilized, as landlords are doing what they need to do to be competitive in this environment to fill space. We've seen this movie before though. The market is following the same pattern. We have experience in predicting the downdraft and then the recovery if one is willing to look out a year or two.

During 2020, with post-COVID leasing activity down dramatically, we still leased 2.2 million square feet and 54 separate leasing transactions in New York. Our initial rents were strong at $89.33 per square foot and average term of these leases was 14.4 years. Mark-to-market was a positive 4.6% cash. And most notably, as Steve mentioned, we executed the two largest leases in Manhattan during 2020.

This 730,000 square foot Facebook lease at Farley and NYU's long-term renewal of 633,000 square feet at our One Park Avenue. Our 336,000 square foot lease with Apple at PENN 11 and 120,000 square foot lease with Citadel at 350 Park also highlighted a solid leasing year. In the fourth quarter, we completed 16 office leases comprised of 163,000 square feet. We signed a new office lease with LVMH for 24,000 square feet at 595 Madison Avenue to go along with their flagship Fendi and Berluti retail leases at the building, further reinforcing its bull's eye location.

We also signed 64,000 square feet of deals at PENN 1, including an important 24,000 square foot renewal with Wells Fargo. Initial cash rents for the quarter were $75.55 per square foot and cash mark-to-market was positive 0.5%. We ended the year with New York office occupancy at 93.4%. We are feeling more optimistic given what we're seeing in the first six weeks of 2021.

Tour volume is up. We are seeing more tenant proposals coming into lease space, particularly, in the financial services sector and companies are looking to take advantage of current market conditions. Importantly, as large companies begin to plan for their employees return to the office, they are also beginning to focus on their future lease expirations and interviewing brokers as first steps in the process. We know of at least four companies with large space needs and the need to plan ahead, which held interviews during the month of January alone in this regard.

Additionally, as the initial shock of COVID wears off and companies begin to look forward, most of the paused negotiations in our portfolio are restarting. Notwithstanding some of the positive signs, we anticipate leasing activity will remain slow through the first half of 2021. It is obvious that flight to quality is accelerating as tenants not only are seeking the best available product, mainly redeveloped and new construction, but more than ever want to do business with the strongest landlords. We are certainly getting more than our fair share of the deals that are out there.

Our leasing team is very active in the market and has their pulse on tenant activity, all of which is reflected in our pipeline, where we have some 300,000 square feet of leases out in negotiation. These include a 55,000 square foot lease with a tech company at 1290 avenue the Americas, a 33,000 square foot lease expansion with a financial services company at 888 7th Avenue and a 75,000 square-foot lease out with a nationally recognized nonprofit at 825 7th Avenue. Beyond this, we have an additional 1 million square feet in discussions, the majority of which is with tenants which would be new to our portfolio. As we have said in the past, our office expirations during 2021 and 2022 are very modest, helping us mitigate against more challenging near-term conditions.

In each of 2021 and 2022, we have less than 5% of our space rolling, 742,000 square feet of leases expiring in 2021 and 726,000 square feet in 2022, of which 352,000 square feet during that two-year period is at the newly redeveloped PENN 1. Turning now to Chicago and the market. In the Chicago market, new leasing continues to be slow, while short-term renewals are dominating activity. We are, of course, in dialogue with many of our expiring tenants, including a 44,000 square foot renewal, which we expect to be signed in the next few days.

During 2020, we completed a 10-year renewal through 2032 for 148,000 square feet with PayPal and signed 49 showroom leases comprising 190,000 square feet at very strong starting rents of almost $55 per square foot, including 62 -- 62,000 square feet in the fourth quarter. Turning to San Francisco. 505 California Street continues to outperform the market. We recently completed four renewal transactions, reflecting the market resiliency of this best-in-class asset, and reinforcing its status as the premier building in the city.

Impressively, during the period of our 14-year ownership, we have never lost a major tenant in this building. Goldman Sachs renewed its entire 90,000 square foot lease. The mark-to-market on this renewal was 58.7%, while Bank of America committed long-term to the building by tacking on an additional 10 years to their current lease term to bring this expiration to 2035. The bank will consolidate all its San Francisco offices into its existing 247,000 square feet at 555, returning to its original home.

This was the largest lease done in San Francisco in 2020. It is important to note we have no leases expiring in San Francisco in 2021 and only 48,000 square feet expiring in 2022, where we are in advanced discussions with these tenants to renew. Turning to retail now. The retail environment remains challenging and rents continue to be under pressure.

Retailers have little visibility on sales given the uncertainty over timing of and office workers returning, and thus, most remain reluctant to commit the new space. But retailers are starting to kick the tires again on space. There also continues to be a flight to quality, with retailers upgrading their locations or accessing high foot traffic locations that were previously unavailable, as evidenced by our lease this quarter with Christophe at 595 Madison, where they will join Fendi and Berluti. Demand for the retail at Farley remains strong, with particular interest in the food hall.

We have now signed 14 leases and have another eight out for signature. We ended the year with New York retail occupants at 78.8%, the decline primarily JCPenney related. Turning to capital markets now. The real estate financing markets continue to improve, with spreads tightening back to pre-pandemic levels for high-quality office.

All-in coupons are now at historically low levels. We are actively working on a number of refinancings and expect that we will term out these loans at lower rates than the current ones. Finally, our current liquidity is a strong $3.91 billion, including $1.73 billion of cash and restricted cash and $2.18 billion undrawn under our $2.75 billion revolving credit facilities. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

[Operator instructions] And we do have our first question from Manny Korchman from Citi.

Manny Korchman -- Citi -- Analyst

Michael, you talked about your expirations in '21, '22. I think you said 325,000 square feet at PENN 1. How much of that is captured in the mark-to-market footnote that you provided there that goes from $81 to $75 to $85. And especially on the PENN 1 piece, pre-pandemic, you spoke to a lot higher of a roll-up there.

Are your roll up expectations still in line with your previous comments?

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

Let me take the second question first and then I'll go at the first. And Glen, jump in here. I think our expectations remain the same, Manny. Our confidence in the product, as Steve referenced, given what brokers have seen, particularly, in the experience center, as we bring it to light as we continue to evolve the amenity package.

We think even more so coming out of this, right? This is what tenants want, work, live play in that environment and so our expectations remain the same for both PENN 1 and PENN 2. On the roll-ups and so I think that reflects that comment. Your question is terms that 352,000 feet on PENN 1, no difference and expectations on the roll-ups. You know the mix of what rolls over year by year in terms of that square footage and what the range of rents is, it's a mix of space.

I'll have to pull out what the detail is, but it's the best guess in terms of what those particular spaces may roll over for, but excluding PENN 1.

Manny Korchman -- Citi -- Analyst

But I have a quick --

Glen Weiss -- Executive Vice President, Office Leasing

Hi, Manny, it's Glen. I would tell you as it relates to the roll-up of the building and we're being very careful because we know the product we're delivering is going to be fantastic and the reception of the market has been spectacular even as we work through the pandemic. So we're not going to jump to deals if we don't like the deals as early, it's for our initial underwriting. And I will tell you, we have a ton of action on the building from a bunch of small tenants, with tenants as large as 70,000, 80,000 feet.

So we feel very good about where this is going and where the rents are going on this asset.

Manny Korchman -- Citi -- Analyst

Thanks. And then going back to the mark, I think in your remarks and releases last night, you talked about a return to trade shows in 2021. How much confidence do you have on that? And approximate timing? Is that at some point in '21 or enough to sort of make a difference to income?

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Our calendar currently, we start coming back with the trade shows in August. Our major show, NeoCon, comes back. We have scheduled for the first week of October. So we're readying for those events as we speak.

Manny Korchman -- Citi -- Analyst

Thanks, everyone.

Operator

And we do have our next question from Steve Sakwa from Evercore.

Steve Sakwa -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Uh, thanks, good morning. Steve, I don't know if you can say much about the asset sales you brought to market last year at 1290 and 555, and just sort of the refinancing expectations. I realize the sales market was challenged last year. But I would have thought a refinancing of that would have been perhaps easier just given the low leverage level.

So just any comments that you could sort of make on those assets and how you're sort of looking at those in 2021?

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Hi, Steve. So first of all, I will tell you that I was disappointed in the reception to the part of buyers to those assets. We found that the buyers were in two groups.

They were bottom fishers, which were not for us, and the conventional long-term institutional investors were tentative, they couldn't travel, they couldn't see the product. And so as a result, we weren't getting the kind of reception that I had anticipated and so we did the appropriate thing, we took them off the market. These are great buildings that should and will command premium pricing and deserve premium pricing with respect to that. With respect to refinancing the buildings, that's basically a layup there, 555 is extremely underlevered, probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% of market value or even lower and so we are gearing up to refinance that now.

We are -- it has not yet been decided as to how much we will refinance that building for. But refinancing that building is in process and will not be a problem at all.

Steve Sakwa -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

So 1290 doesn't mature later next year, right? So it's uh -- our plan would not be to refinance that yet anyway.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

The takeaway is that we were not happy with the sales market reception. The refinancing of those buildings is in process and will not be a problem of all.

Steve Sakwa -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

OK. And I guess my follow-up, Michael, you sort of talked about a number of tenants in the market today. Maybe you or Glen could just sort of speak to -- I guess what I'm really looking for is space planning. How companies are thinking about densities? And particularly for new deals, which I think give everybody a blank slate to think about their footprint.

What are you seeing from tenants today that are looking at new space? How are they configuring it? What do the densities look like? And what does that portend for rollovers on other deals moving forward?

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. That's Glen's question.

Glen Weiss -- Executive Vice President, Office Leasing

Hey, Steve, it's Glen. How are you? The first thing I would tell you, we're seeing a very large uptick in our presentations to big tenants coming out of the woodwork thus far this year. We've had five different presentations to large headquarter tenants in the last two weeks, that's number one. So you're starting to see people come out and start to see things, and the reception has been excellent on our PENN projects and 350 Park, number one.

Number two, as it relates to tenants' plans, we've been reviewing that in a very focused way. We've seen no change to what tenants were doing pre-pandemic to what we see them doing now during the pandemic for future occupancy. So I do not see a change at all. I think the one thing people are focused on is product type, where, as we keep saying quarter to quarter, people are more and more focused on the best building as it relates to redevelopments or new builds, and most importantly, even more recently is the landlords that they're going to marry with, as it relates to services, amenities, infrastructure, sustainability, and everything people care about as we work through this cycle.

But in terms of your specific questions, we have not seen the change in planning from a space design standpoint.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Steve, we were -- you know the history of all this is that, in the old days, it used to be 250 or even 300 square foot per employee. And then along came Adam Newman and we work, and he tried to jam it down to 60 square feet per capita which was his marketing effort. That's why his space was cheaper because you put more heads into the same amount of space. And so both extremes are observed and so we see it settling in somewhere in between and we don't see any major change, as Glen said.

We were on the phone yesterday with the senior team with, who I think does probably more of this place to find than anybody else and they confirm what Glen is seeing in the marketplace. So people have already gone to space planning, which is less formal, less rigid than the old fashioned, old offices lighting the perimeter windows. So the one thing that we are seeing is that there's a reluctance on the people sharing offices or desks with other people. And so that's sort of in a funny way seems to indicate that the concept of hoteling and hot desk is not going to be as popular going forward.

So on the whole, there's more activity and the space planning activity is pretty much the same as it was before all this started.

Steve Sakwa -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Great. Thanks.

Operator

And we just have our next question from Jamie Feldman from Bank of America.

Jamie Feldman -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great. Thank you and good morning. Steve, I want to go back to your comments about fiscal stimulus and how you think New York City might benefit. Can you just talk about generally what you think could be coming and how that will impact the local economy? And then also, I mean we've seen plans from the Governor on Midtown West and then even conversions of vacant office buildings to maybe residential.

Just want to get your thoughts on kind of all those topics and how you think that might impact the market and Vornado going forward. Thank you.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Jamie. How are you? So the world has changed radically. We now have a Biden White House and we have a Chuck Schumer Majority Leader in the Senate, who I remind you is Brooklyn born and bred and a friend. And so we believe that there is an enormous trend now toward fiscal stimulus toward supporting, obviously, the people who have been harmed by the COVID pandemic.

But also to keep the major cities in this country, well lubricated with finance and money because they've been hurt enormously. So we are expecting lots of government assistance to be supported by the new political regimes, including the majority leader who is all powerful. So there's that. Now the Governor, who is the master builder of our generation, has put foot -- he loves PENN and he continues it to be the economic and transportation center of the universe.

And if you look at his PowerPoint, the slide shows in his last number of state of the state speeches, etc., you can see them very vividly. So his program for the West Side is lots of work in PENN, which are both aesthetic and logistical, including expanding the track capacity at PENN by acquiring and developing the 780 Block which is the block contiguous to the south and that is expanding it with four tracks, I think it is. Also, including the gateway tunnel, I am corrected by my head of development that they're eight tracks, OK? How are they going to fit eight tracks in that space? huh?

Barry Langer -- Executive Vice President -- Development and Co-Head of Real Estate

Side by side.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

A challenge. So I'll have to go with Barry because he's got -- so eight tracks, which is an enormous increase in the capacity of PENN. The gateway tunnel, we know about, extending the high line, building a new unbelievably more efficient, with much -- with triple the capacity of bus terminal, etc., etc. So that the West side of Manhattan will be getting an enormous increase in infrastructure dollars over time and the major concentration on the part of the government.

So we're pretty enthusiastic about all this, I would say, very enthusiastic. Obviously, we think we have the bull's eye location so we couldn't be more excited about all that. Now the one unknown was the campaign promises that they would reverse the Trump tax bill. The major portion of which was reversing SALT or if not reversing SALT, significantly modifying that.

I mean while on sort of -- I think that's very good for New York residents and the big city residents. You know, I don't think that's as big as slam dunk as the stimulus dollars that will come in. But were that to happen, I think that that would be another major boost for New York. If that doesn't happen, New York will do just fine without it.

Jamie Feldman -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great. Thank you for the thoughts. And then how do you think about Vornado's participation in expanding Midtown West? I know the port authority is on the docket too for a renovation. Do you see a lot more growth in your development pipeline or ability to get active in these projects?

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

The first, getting active in -- look, we understand public-private partnerships. We were the major private partner in the Moynihan Development Program, as you know, so we're pretty familiar with this. But we are very, very intimate with the governments and the state teams that do that kind of stuff. As I sit here right now, I don't think the bus terminal is for us.

I would remind you, we have the better part of 10 million square feet of future development in our neighborhood across the street and down the block and around the bed. So we have our handfuls with what we already own in terms of doing that. We will look at other opportunities as well. But right now, where our plate is full.

Our growth potential is huge. And if something else comes along in our neighborhood, of course, we will look at it.

Jamie Feldman -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

OK. Thanks a lot.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

And by the way, I would add one last thing. I would expect and our history shows this to be the fact, that when it comes to the government seeking a private partner, we're the first call and we have been on all of these things. So whether -- you know, the question is, how aggressive are we in answering that call?

Jamie Feldman -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Do you see the Midtown West plan competing with you know I guess you can develop more to the east over like Manhattan Mall. I mean it sounds like this is farther West than North. How do you think about just the interplay between those two? Like your current land bank versus where it sounds like the Governor wants to expand.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I mean most of the stuff that the government is working on is infrastructure. I mean, obviously, on the 780 Block, which is 30th Street to 31st Street, adjacent to the station, the plan there is to build, how many, 3 million feet, 4 million feet, 3 million or 4 million feet on top of the new expanded eight-track expansion. Now obviously, those buildings are interesting, but they are 15 years away. So we'll worry about them when the time comes.

We believe in mass. We believe in gathering. We believe in clustering. So the more swift -- I mean, for example, what we're doing with PENN 1 and PENN 2, we believe that having 4.5 million feet in one cluster, interconnected, underground, and overground, where we can share amenities, we can move tenants around, we can provide space for everybody that needs expansion, is an enormous plus, infinitely more valuable than four separate 1 million square foot building, which is spread around the neighborhood.

So we think that the clustering in the neighborhood creates value for the entire neighborhood. So we're OK with somebody building a building on the river, that's OK with us.

Jamie Feldman -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

OK. Thanks again.

Operator

And we do have our next question from Michael Lewis from Truist Sec.

Michael Lewis -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Hi, thank you. I wanted to come back to Steve Sakwa's question about the mortgages coming due. You also have 909 3rd and the mark this year and then 770 in Broadway next year. Should we just assume those are all straightforward refinancings? And then as far as 555 California and 1290, do you think the presence of your 30% partner hurt the reception of those assets in the market? And maybe that needs to be addressed to get full value? Or do you think that have much to do with it?

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Uh, this is a very interesting and controversial man who has a lot of people who like him and a lot of people who don't. As I remember, the count is 74 million people who like him and 81 people who don't. From our point of view, he is our partner, we bought these buildings in 2007. He was not a politician then.

He was a business guy like us. He is -- his role in these buildings is totally positive and he's OK with that, and I'm delighted with that. And there are some people who -- his presence affect negatively. That's true, OK.

It is not a sufficient issue to be of any trouble to us at all.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

OK and the second --

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

And there was something else in the question. I didn't --

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

And the second part, Michael, on the other mortgages. I would say they're all straightforward refinancings. A couple are well down the road right now, including 909. Again, as I referenced in my comments, given how much the markets have recovered, I think you'll see the rates come down on the assets that we're rolling over near-term and then we'll start focusing on the mark right after that 770 matures next year.

So all these are sort of normal course business. Given the strength of the markets, we're going to push a lot to the system here near-term.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

You know, but Michael just said is -- what Michael just said is a point to emphasize and dwell on for a moment, OK? Interest rates are at lifetime lows. The markets are extremely receptive. The markets are clamoring for product, and we have product. If not -- each of us has our own opinion as to whether interest rates are staying where they are, we're going to go lower or go higher.

And I don't think it's relevant to get into that right now. They're plenty low enough. So our mission is to enhance our balance sheet by refinancing at lower interest rates and also terming out where we can, which is our objectives. So this is the best time to finance product in actually probably in my career and we're taking advantage of it in a very aggressive but measured way.

Michael Lewis -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

OK. Thanks. And then for my second question. Steve did a good job explaining the changes in the development yields for that portfolio.

I just wanted to ask, since you have kind of spot development yields in your supplemental, should we think of it more as a range around those yields given cost changed a little bit this time? Maybe it's the leasing environment next time. What do you think is the likely range of outcomes? Is it a narrow range around those spot yields? Do you feel comfortable with those? Or maybe it's a little wider given we're in a pretty uncertain environment right now?

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

You know, budgets are budgets. They're not locked in stone. They're not guaranteed. They're not actual numbers.

They're budgets. So they will move. They are -- we take these budgets very seriously. We spend an awful lot of time on them.

There are reams of data that support the four or five numbers that finally get published in our supplement. We have great confidence in the numbers that we have offered. But remember, they are budgets, we do not -- and we are on the conservative side of life on that. So we do not expect them to change.

Obviously, they can change a little here and there. By the way, they have as much of an opportunity of changing positively than changing negatively. But there are budgets, they're well thought through where we're confident in them, and it's a serious piece of business.

Michael Lewis -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

OK. Thank you.

Operator

And we do have -- have our next question from Alexander Goldfarb from Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Thank you. Thank you. Morning. Good morning, Steve.

Good morning, Michael. So just quick clarification. Hopefully, you don't [Inaudible] any other question for this. But in your response to Michael Lewis' question on 555 and 1290, we -- it sounds like we should take from your response to him that the refinancing of 555 and any normal course leasing, that sort of stuff, that nothing has been impacted by the fallout from January 6th.

So basically, your ability to refinance, lease, all that stuff, is on track. There's nothing that we should concern ourselves with. I just wanted to just confirm that in your response to Michael Lewis.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Your -- your statement is a little bit too on the positive side. Obviously, we wish, as every American wishes that January 6th hasn't happened, OK? So obviously, that's not a good thing, OK? Obviously, the stuff that happened in the Senate last week is also same comment. Having said that, we have some great buildings. We have great tenants in the buildings and those assets speak for themselves.

This is business. Business is business. We will run the buildings without any issue. We will finance the buildings without any issue and everything will be fine, OK?

Alexander Goldfarb -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

OK. So that accounts for my first question, Steve. You guys have always promoted your environment.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

By the way, hey, Alex, by the way, there was a big article which started all this stuff in the Wall Street Journal. It was probably a couple of weeks ago which I read and it was an interesting article, much of which was actually news to me. Go ahead.

Alexander Goldfarb -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

And, uh, we will -- given the past few years of fake news or real news, we'll leave that for a separate discussion, Steve.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I'm not getting into to that.

Alexander Goldfarb -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Uh, you guys have always been a leader in environmental, right? You've been energy-efficient, you know, all that stuff, right? And yet, in your latest release on the PENN development, the costs went up by $125 million, part for Farley retail, part for sustainability. I'm a little bit more focused and puzzled by the sustainability part in 1 because you guys have always been doing that. So I'm sort of curious, what's driving this increase in cost? And is this something that investors now have to think about as far as impact to returns? And that what you guys were doing was already thinking the building is quite green, but now there are mandates that are foreign excess that you're not getting a payback on. I just want a bit more color on that because that definitely jumped out from your updated schedule.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I would rephrase your question. Since you guys are such leaders in -- I'm rephrasing your question now for you. Since you guys are such leaders in sustainability, why wasn't these two items, the triple pane glazing and the electrification, in the original budget to start with, OK? I have no real answer for that, OK? We decided as we went along and planning the building that we wanted to put in the triple play. I think the triple pane glazing is the first in New York, is it not? So it's the first of this -- by the way, it's all over Europe.

It's almost mandatory in Europe. It is nowhere in the United States or in New York. We're the first ones to do it here. We spent a great deal of time and so by saying we're the first to do it here is sort of a radical thing to do it.

It's not done in New York construction and development. So we spent a great deal of time researching it. We mocked it up. We did everything and we decided that it was worth the uptick in the dollars in the budget to bring the building into the 21st and 22nd century in terms of its glazing, so we did it, OK? Electrification is -- you know, it's actually pretty simple.

All buildings are going to go all-electric because of of the carbon footprint in the future. So anyway, I think these things speak for themselves and we're not boastful and we are leaders in sustainability. It's very important to us. We take pride in us and we take pride in it, and the team that does our sustainability is acknowledged to be, I think, probably the best team around.

So you're right. So -- but I don't want you to think that this was an afterthought or this was an add-on or a mistake, OK? This was our -- making sure that the buildings were up to -- totally up to snuff, as good as they could be, as tenant friendly as they could be, and as carbon friendly as they could be.

Alexander Goldfarb -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

OK. And then the second question, Steve, or maybe for Michael, is the all favorite. I know you guys don't do guidance and certainly the fun of covering VNO is the modeling aspect, but is the fourth quarter of this year, is that a good run rate? Or are there some big move-outs or roll downs that we should be thinking about impacting the 2021 numbers?

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

Are you talking about Vornado overall? Just the retail?

Alexander Goldfarb -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

No, no, overall, Michael, overall. I mean, obviously, there are a lot of moving parts, but just anything big that we should think about? Or you would say, hey, Alex, fourth-quarter FFO, the 66 number, ex items, that's probably a pretty good number to think about.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

Look, I think a couple of 30,000-foot comments. You know, I think it's a decent number to use as a run rate. I will say, just keep in mind, in terms of first quarter, first quarter in '21 will be down from '20, right? Because first-quarter '20 was a pre-COVID quarter. And so obviously, with the variable businesses being off-line, the first quarter will be the last quarter that rolls through, but on a run-rate basis, I think your comment isn't appropriate.

Alexander Goldfarb -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

OK. Thank you. Thanks.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you and we do have our next question from Anthony Paolone from J.P. Morgan.

Anthony Paolone -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

OK. Thank you. My first question relates to the retail joint venture and your $1.8 billion there. Can you talk about your plans to potentially redeem that this year? If I recall, I think there was like a two-year tax matter that prompted you to maybe wait before you'd get that money back.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

You know, what that is, is that there's a two-year blackout under the tax provisions. After the two years, we can refinance it. We can't redeem it or pay it off. We can refinance it because if we did it -- if we turned it into liquidity, that would trigger the $1.8 billion tax that was deferred, OK? So the preferred, either stays there or we can sell it, as long as it stays there or we can refinance it with bit, which is a different proposition.

So -- but there's nothing imminent in our plans to transact with respect to that preferred right now.

Anthony Paolone -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

OK. Is the debt market there for those types of assets today?

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

You know, the debt market would be less sustainable than I would like it to be because of the turmoil in the retail industry. Notwithstanding the fact that we have long-term leases on most of those assets, OK? The mark-to-market on those properties is unfavorable and the debt market is -- I mean we could do something in there, but the debt market is not as favorable as we would like it to be.

Anthony Paolone -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

OK. And then just a second quick one, hopefully. I think in prior years, in the K, you would give a budget for the year ahead on capex for things like TIs, commissions, maintenance capex. I may have missed it, but do you have that for '21?

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Hang on. Our finance team is scrambling.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

And I don't have the page number.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

It's in the 10-K, we can get you the page number.

Anthony Paolone -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

That's fine. I may have missed it then. Appreciate it.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

I'll come back to you on that, Tony.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

We'll tell you -- Tom will tell what the page number is supplementary.

Anthony Paolone -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

That's fine. I'll find it. I just missed it, that's all.

Operator

And we do have our next question from John Kim from BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. There's been some news of sublease space in your portfolio, whether it's Yelp at the March or Apple taking some of the Macy's space. Can you provide to us how much space in your portfolio is up for sublease and preferably by market?

Glen Weiss -- Executive Vice President, Office Leasing

Hi, John, it's Glen Weiss. Apple was actually a direct lease. We took Macy's out so that was a positive. As it relates to the sublease space in the portfolio, the only -- the big one that, you know, we're aware of is PWC and in part thinking about doing something with that block.

Otherwise, it's a bunch of smaller tenants who have been thinking about putting space on.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

How it'll help -- what's the term on the PWC block?

Glen Weiss -- Executive Vice President, Office Leasing

The PWC lease goes until 2033. So obviously, we have great credit on that lease long-term, so not a concern for us. You know, Macy's is subleasing the remaining piece of their space lease trying to, which is the space we didn't -- that Apple did not take. But generally speaking, as it relates to our portfolio, not a lot of major overhang as it relates to that question.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sublease space is interesting. The -- if there's a great deal of sublease space in the market with tenants who are willing to take huge discounts, significant discounts to clear the space that obviously affects the entire market. When you have sublease, when you have a tenant subleasing in one of our buildings, that's an interesting thing because if we have term, then we as landlord have no risk. If there's shorter-term, the marketability of the sublease space depends upon the new tenant coming in, dealing with us, at which point we have an advantage.

So the sublease space that are at our building, generally speaking, is an opportunity for us and an advantage to us. But too much sublease in everybody else's buildings where the tenants are prepared to take much lower prices actually distorts the market and hurts the market. We've been through this in every cycle and the sign of recovery is when the sublease space starts to clear or be taken back because the tenants decide they need the space rather than get rid of it. So the sublease space is something -- you're right to watch it, it's very important and at times, it's an issue and a challenge and at times, it's an advantage and an opportunity.

Glen Weiss -- Executive Vice President, Office Leasing

As it relates to the mark, you asked about Beam and Yelp. So Beam announced a move of their executive office to Manhattan. But that in no way, shape, or form will impact their sublease from Motorola, Google at the Mart. They have 113,000 feet there.

That's a long-term deal for them until '28. We've spoken to them recently and they will remain in that space, and there's no plans to put that space on the market. As it relates to Yelp, they have about 130,000 feet, their lease has another three years remaining, and they have announced they're going to try to sublease about half that space. We'll see how successful they are or not and to see if we can maybe take advantage of that situation as they go through their process.

We'll see what happens.

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

OK. Thanks for that. My second question is on your expectation for FFO this year, as a follow-up to Alex's question. What are you expecting as far as the timing of reopening of your variable businesses? Are you expecting to provide any more write-offs or deferrals or abatements next year? It didn't seem like it moved that much as far as deferrals of payments this past quarter.

But if you could provide any color on some of these FFO items, that would be great.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

You're talking about -- good morning, John. You're talking about the tenant side on the latter part, payments and deferrals?

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Yes.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

OK. I mean, look, I think we, in our view, we did a pretty good job of vetting what tenants were still at risk in the second or third quarter, third quarter in particular, in terms of really assessing after several months, based on discussions with tenants, either which ones would not be able to continue to pay or not make it. And so obviously, you saw the number come down dramatically in the fourth quarter and we feel like we've generally dealt with it. Obviously, anything can still happen, but there's nothing we see on the horizon that is going to give rise to some anything material there.

So that's the comment of the tenants. On the variable businesses, we're generally not expecting that to gear up until the second half of the year. I think it tracks, as Steve said, when do office workers come back, when the tourists come back, that's going to be third, fourth quarter. And so therefore, the garage income, BMS, which are directly related to tenant occupancies in the buildings, you know, flow from that and so that's going to be in the latter part of the year.

Signage, you know, same thing depending on when charging comes back. So that's the second half of the year and it's a -- it's not a -- all of a sudden, a light switch has turned on and it comes back in. You know, we expect it to take some time to ramp up.

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

And are there any more thoughts on providing FFO guidance just given you're not providing your NAV estimate anymore?

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

You know, that was the first question I got asked by our people when I assumed Joe's role, which is a difficult shoes to fill. But Joe did a phenomenal job in a lot of areas and that's a job -- that's a path we're going to continue, so we have no plans to provide guidance. Certainly, starting in the middle of COVID would not be the wisest thing, but no plans to do that.

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

OK. Thank you.

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

Yup.

Operator

And we do have our next question from Vikram Malhotra from Morgan Stanley.

Vikram Malhotra -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. Two questions. Just first on street retail. Wondering if you can maybe give us a bit more on the puts and takes.

You referenced sort of 4Q as being a good run rate, you know, but given the bumps in the portfolio and the lease-up opportunities you referenced, I'm just sort of wondering what sort of the other -- what's sort of keeping the NOI flat for the year? And related to that, just any lumpy expirations we should know about over the next, call it, 12 to 18 months?

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

You know, I think that -- look, in '21, as I said, I think it's a pretty good run rate. And remember, we have -- as we start coming later in the year, we have leases that we've signed that are going to start kicking in, whether it's Fendi at 595 Madison, Sephora, Union Square, and so forth. So you've got leases that are kicking in, you have some rent bumps, and frankly, not a lot of expiries this year. And I think even next year, I would say, nothing that's that material, right? None of the real high street as we characterize, Fifth Avenue, Times Square rolls in '21, '22.

We had a couple of issues at 50 and 40 in terms of bankruptcies, so that's obviously, already made its way through the numbers. So that's why in terms of giving you that run rate number, and as you said, there's rent steps. So there's enough things that are coming online, that have built in contractual bumps, that even if there's a few rollouts which again, are not material in any one particular property. You know minimal or will stay flat before beginning to grow from the lease-up of both the vacancy, as well as, the underdevelopment properties like Farley, like PENN 1, and ultimately PENN 2.

Vikram Malhotra -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

OK. Got it. And then just a bigger picture question, maybe for Steve, and you might addressed this in your annual letter. But just give us -- if you can give us a sense of how you're thinking about bigger picture strategic moves, whether it's spin-offs or buybacks or bigger JVs or anything like that.

Just given where we are, I know still in the pandemic, but given all the growth drivers you've outlined on a multiyear basis for both retail and office. Just wondering how you're thinking about bigger sort of strategic moves.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

We have nothing to announce or talk about that now. You know, we -- I'll address that in my letter. Clearly, we have talked about potentially separating the PENN District. I think last year, I said perhaps be a tracking stock, uh, that's still on the table.

So there's other things that we're thinking about, but we have nothing to talk about right now.

Vikram Malhotra -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

OK. Thanks.

Operator

And we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to CEO, Steve Roth.

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, everybody. We appreciate everybody joining us this morning. Please stay safe and healthy. Our first-quarter 2021 earnings call will be on Tuesday, May 4th.

We will see you then, if not before. Thanks very much.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 71 minutes

Call participants:

Cathy Creswell -- Director of Investor Relations

Steven Roth -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Michael Franco -- Chief Financial Officer

Manny Korchman -- Citi -- Analyst

Glen Weiss -- Executive Vice President, Office Leasing

Steve Sakwa -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Jamie Feldman -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Barry Langer -- Executive Vice President -- Development and Co-Head of Real Estate

Michael Lewis -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Alexander Goldfarb -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Anthony Paolone -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Vikram Malhotra -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

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