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Generac Holdings inc (GNRC) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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GNRC earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2021.

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Generac Holdings inc (GNRC 1.02%)
Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Nov 2, 2021, 10:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2021 Generac Holdings Incorporated Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] With that, I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Michael Harris VP, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Thank you. And please go ahead.

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Michael W. Harris -- Vice President-Corporate Development & Investor Relations

Good morning and welcome to our third quarter 2021 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Aaron Jagdfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer; and York Ragen, Chief Financial Officer. We will begin our call today by commenting on forward-looking statements. Certain statements made during this presentation, as well as other information provided from time to time by Generac or its employees may contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in these forward-looking statements.

Please see our earnings release or SEC filings for a list of words or expressions that identify such statements and the associated risk factors. In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures during today's call. Additional information regarding these measures, including reconciliation to comparable US GAAP measures is available in our earnings release or SEC filings.

I will now turn the call over to Aaron.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mike. And good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. We experienced another quarter of exceptional demand as interest in our home standby generators Clean Energy Systems and C&I products remain incredibly strong. Production levels were also the highest we have ever experienced in the quarter, with shipments of home standby generators increasing at a substantial rate over the prior year, as we continue to ramp output at our new facility in Trenton, South Carolina. This led to record revenue growth of 34% in spite of significant operational obstacles faced across the supply chain environment that deteriorated further during the third quarter. Even with the higher output levels, demand remain very strong and broad-based, leading to higher backlog levels, particularly for home standby generators, providing us with good visibility into significant revenue growth for 2022.

Additionally, we recently announced several strategic acquisitions that will accelerate our new 'Powering a Smarter World' strategy and provide additional avenues for growth as we continue our evolution into an energy technology solutions company. Year-over-year, overall net sales increased 34% to $943 million, an all-time record, and also increased sequentially relative to the second quarter, which was the previous all-time record. The growth in the quarter was driven by strength in both residential and C&I products as compared to the prior year. Residential product growth was led by a 50% increase in shipments of home standby generators, as production levels continue to increase significantly relative to prior year levels, as well as tremendous year-over-year growth in shipments of PWRcell energy storage systems, which also grew double-digits on a sequential basis.

Shipments of C&I products were also up dramatically in the quarter with revenue of these products now growing materially above 2019 levels due to strength across a number of end markets and geographies. Adjusted EBITDA margins of 22.2% were lower as compared to the prior year, as they were unfavorably impacted by higher logistics and commodity costs. In response to the escalating cost we are experiencing, we've undertaken a number of additional pricing actions and cost reduction initiatives to mitigate the longer term impact to margins.

Now, discussing our third quarter results in more detail. The mega trends driving consumer interest in backup power continued in the third quarter, most notably the Home as a Sanctuary trend combined with more extreme weather, which again resulted in elevated power outage activity. Overall, baseline outage activity for the trailing four quarters grew on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, despite a very strong prior year comparison, and remains well above the long-term baseline average. In fact, since we began tracking the impact of outage activity more than a decade ago, four of the top 10 power outage severity quarters have occurred since the second half of last year.

The convergence of the heightened power outage activity, broader electrification trends, and people spending more time at home, has driven unprecedented demand for home standby generators. As a result, home consultations or sales leads increased again at a strong double-digit rate in the third quarter over the robust prior year comparison, and broad-based growth continues to be experienced as almost all US regions grew on a year-over-year basis in the third quarter. It's also relevant to note that home consultations in the third quarter increased over 3 times the comparable 2019 levels. And on a year-to-date basis, or more than 4 times 2019 levels.

Activations of home standby generators, which are a proxy for installations also grew at a double-digit rate compared to the prior year. We continue to experience a strong expansion of our distribution footprints, as we ended the third quarter with approximately 8,100 residential dealers, an increase of 1,100 dealers over the last 12 months. California and Texas alone continue to account for nearly one-third of the year-over-year increase.

Early in the third quarter, we achieved a significant milestone by starting production of home standby generators at our new facility in Trenton, South Carolina. We continue to make encouraging progress increasing production levels for home standby generators across our operating footprint, with daily build rates much higher compared to prior year levels. Despite the higher output, demand for home standby generators continues to outpace our ability to produce them, which has caused lead times to further grow to approximately 30 weeks. These significant lead times provide excellent visibility as we head into 2022, with our home standby backlog projected to be well over $1 billion and entering the next year.

As we consider the longer-term capacity requirements for home standby production, we have made a number of strategic decisions to further expand our footprint. Yesterday, we announced plans to expand warehousing and distribution capacity at our Trenton facility by adding 200,000 square feet, which will increase the current size of the building by nearly 50%. In addition, we recently made commitments to purchase additional long lead time automated manufacturing equipment that would be available to come online in 2023, further increasing our capacity for several key components to provide for needed search production as the category continues to grow.

In addition to these capacity expansion actions, last week we introduced the industry's largest air cooled home standby generator, our new 26-kilowatt unit. Building upon the success of the launch of our 24-kilowatt unit last year, the new 26-kilowatt unit will allow homeowners to access the kind of power only previously available in larger size liquid cooled generators at a significantly lower cost.

As the trend to decarbonize accelerates, the electrification of everything in the home, including heating, cooking, cleaning, and ultimately transportation, will lead to much greater residential electricity consumption. The new 26-kilowatt home standby unit will be capable of providing the kind of resiliency needed with these larger electrical loads and will provide an ability to future proof a home as these electrification trends intensify in the years ahead. With a strong outage environment and mega trends like Home as a Sanctuary underpinning tremendous demand for home standby generators, those same factors, along with the increasing penetration of solar installations, are also driving rapid growth for our clean energy product offering. As previously mentioned, shipments of our PWRcell energy storage systems grew significantly as compared to the prior year, and also grew at a double-digit rate sequentially. Despite numerous supply chain challenges also impacting clean energy products, we continue to experience growth, well above the broader US residential solar market, driven by ongoing increases in storage attachment rates and continued market share gains.

In addition to strong revenue growth, key performance indicators for clean energy products continued to show favorable trends. Home consultations expanded as compared to the prior year and accelerated throughout the quarter. System activations, which are a proxy for installations. And commissioning more than doubled in the third quarter as compared to the prior year, and also increased sequentially. In addition, we further built out our installer network as we ended the third quarter with approximately 2,300 trained and certified dealers, with nearly 1,000 of those dealers registered on our PowerPlay CE sales platform.

Despite the industry wide supply chain and logistics challenges, we expect clean energy revenues to approximately double for full year 2021 on a year-over-year basis. In addition, we continue to drive profitable growth within the product category as we scale volumes and optimize the supply chain.

Building on the early success we've experienced with our clean energy product offering, we formally announced several exciting new clean energy related products during the third quarter, that we believe will further grow our competitive advantage in this exciting new market. We introduced the industry's first purpose-built dedicated battery charging generator during the quarter; the power generator, which is a one of a kind power product enabling a homeowner to create a solar plus storage system that is completely grid independent.

We also introduced our new PowerManager load control system, that maximizes better performance, and offers homeowners the ability to control specific electric loads from a mobile device via our existing power view energy monitoring platform. And, building off the early integration success with the recent Chilicon acquisition, we introduced the PowerMicro; a Generac branded microinverter that allows us to fully participate in the residential solar only market, a meaningful expansion beyond the solar plus storage space we previously addressed.

In another example of our focus on continued innovation, we announced the acquisition of Apricity, an advanced engineering and product design company focused on developing energy technology solutions. The team at Apricity brings expertise in designing and prototyping energy related products to increase reliability, add functionality and improve performance. The company has also developed a unique smart water heater controller that is used as a grid edge device by utilities and demand response and other energy conservation programs. Bringing this talented group on board, will accelerate our efforts in expanding our clean energy offerings and increase our speed to market for key clean energy and grid services products and solutions.

To further build upon Generac's evolution into an energy technology solutions company, yesterday we announced an exciting agreement to acquire ecobee, which accelerates our capability to provide a home energy ecosystem with a dual value proposition for both homeowners and grid operators. Ecobee is a pioneer in the smart thermostat market and offers a full line of intelligent thermostats and home monitoring products that deliver significant energy savings, security and peace of mind, and enable the monitoring and control of a significant portion of the homes electrical load. Residential HVAC systems represent the single largest energy consuming device in a home today and ecobee has created an intelligent system using smart thermostats and sensors to effectively balance comfort and conservation. With over 5 million connected devices in more than 2 million homes, ecobee customers in North America have saved more than 20 terawatts of energy, which is the equivalent of saving enough energy to take all the homes in Los Angeles off the grid for an entire year.

Importantly, ecobee adds to Generac's growing suite of residential power generation, energy storage, and energy management solutions, that we believe will play a pivotal role in helping to solve the challenges of the growing supply and demand imbalances of today's electrical grid. Smart thermostat controls represent one of the largest opportunities within the grid services addressable market, involving the connection of grid edge devices to a grid services platform, like our Concerto software platform, thereby enabling participation in grid services programs. Adding ecobee devices to our product portfolio considerably expands our served market opportunity, and increases our capabilities to provide end-to-end solutions for turnkey virtual power plant projects.

Adding ecobee's innovative team of over 500 employees, gives us the ability to further advance the development of an intelligent and intuitive user interface platform that would integrate and synchronize our generation and storage equipment, and our existing grid edge devices, providing seamless access and control for homeowners through a smartphone tablet or PC. We believe this approach will create one of the broadest home energy ecosystems available on the market today, and allow for easy connection to our Concerto platform, empowering homeowners to make smarter energy production, storage and consumption decisions, while providing grid operators, more efficient access to the home in aggregate or the device level for grid support programs.

I'd also like to provide a brief update on Generac Grid Services, a new group within Generac that was formed in the third quarter, that builds upon our October 2020 acquisition of Enbala Power Networks. Generac Grid Services was established to directly engage and serve utilities, energy retailers and grid operators to provide an array of solutions and enable entirely new value streams that leverage a range of products from our portfolio. We took another major step toward unlocking significant value in the grid services space in the third quarter, with the formal announcement of smart grid ready capabilities across our home standby generators, our C&I natural gas generators, and our PWRcell energy storage systems.

In addition to the peace of mind that they're receiving from Generac products, customers now have the opportunity to also obtain additional return on investment by leveraging their products to support grid reliability, resiliency and sustainability. Within the expanding grid services marketplace, we believe Generac Grid Services is a unique and differentiated market leader due to our comprehensive set of hardware, plus software, plus services offerings, including, through our Smart Grid Ready capabilities for legacy products, our recent acquisition of Apricity's smart water heater controllers, and our pending acquisition of ecobee and its home energy management solutions.

Our increasing integration of hardware with grid software and services, is leading to a number of contract wins, along with a significant increase in proposal requests and an overall expanding sales pipeline. These include several examples of the new revenue streams within our grid services model, as we layer on higher value turnkey virtual power plant programs, utilizing Generac hardware and performance contracts on top of the Concerto software as a service platform. We are in the very early innings of the evolution of the power grid, but as consumer awareness grows, and demand from utilities and grid operators materializes, we remain incredibly excited about the potential long-term growth trajectory of Generac Grid Services.

The excitement around our expanding energy technology solution capabilities extends into the C&I product range as well, where offerings, such as energy as a service, microgrid solutions, and mobile energy storage systems are helping drive the long-term growth trajectory and an increasing mix of energy technology revenues. Our core C&I business experienced strong momentum in the third quarter, as a number of end-markets and geographies continue to recover strongly off the COVID weakened prior-year quarter.

Specifically, C&I product sales grew 47% as compared to the prior year, and 31% on a core basis. We also have a considerable backlog that is growing for C&I products that provides good visibility for meaningful growth heading into 2022.

In addition to strong quoting and order activity in our North American distributor channel, shipments to telecom national account customers increased dramatically again during the quarter, as compared to the prior year at capital spending by several of our large telecom customers continued to at elevated levels, and have led to further increase in project shipments during the current year. The catalyst for the additional spending on backup power in this important vertical, continues to be driven by an elevated power outage environment over the last several years; the power security mandate in California requiring a minimum of 72 hours of backup power at all tower locations and the build-out of wireless carriers 5G networks.

The long-term demand outlook for telecom backup power remains very compelling, driven by the increasingly critical nature of wireless communications. We also experienced very strong growth within our national real [Phonetic] accounts customers as shipments of mobile products continue to recover at a significant rate of the COVID driven lows of 2020. We still expect shipments of mobile products to improve dramatically for the full-year of 2021, as the prior year, as national rental account customers invest heavily in fleet equipment, with utilization of rental rates continuing to improve. We remain optimistic about the long-term demand outlook for mobile products, given the important mega trend around the critical need for infrastructure improvements, which could benefit from the potential economic stimulus plans being pursued through the federal infrastructure spending bill.

Additionally, we continue to build great momentum with our C&I beyond standby initiatives. We are experiencing ongoing strength in project quoting for our natural gas generators used in applications beyond traditional emergency standby power generation; such as their use in energy as a service, microgrid solutions, and other distributed generation applications.

During the third quarter, we announced a five-year agreement with Enchanted Rock, to build and supply the advanced natural gas generators and control systems that are used in ultra-low emission dual purpose microgrids that Enchanted Rock designs and operates. These solutions provide commercial, industrial and governmental customers with affordable and reliable backup power, and supply electric grid operators with critical grid stability services that accelerate the adoption of wind and solar without sacrificing overall grid reliability. The microgrid solutions are based on Generac's Rich-Burn gaseous engine technology and our newly acquired Deep Sea electronics control systems, which provides quick start utility grade backup power in a much cleaner format when compared to traditional diesel generator solutions.

We remain very optimistic regarding customer and grid operator interest and beyond standby applications of our C&I natural gas generators. It's being driven by the need for enhanced grid stability and resiliency that these large blocks of power can offer, as well as the tangible and meaningful return on the investment opportunity for asset owners.

Our international business continues to see strong momentum as well, with net sales growth of 61% on a year-over-year basis during the third quarter and 32% core net sales growth, when excluding the benefit of the Deep Sea and off grid energy acquisitions, and the impact of favorable foreign currency. The core sales growth was driven by strength across all major regions that continue to experience a sharp increase in demand off the prior year COVID lows, and have also recovered well above 2019 levels. Larger project quoting and overall order activity continue to recover at a strong pace in key international markets, which drove growth in our international backlog during the third quarter, with the order strength continuing thus far in the fourth quarter. In addition, the segment's third quarter EBITDA margin expanded to 14.1% from 7.9% in the year ago period, due to the higher margin profile impact from the Deep Sea and Off Grid Energy acquisitions and improved operating leverage in the base business on higher sales volumes.

With regards to Off Grid Energy, this acquisition closed on September 1 and brings a diverse range of energy storage solutions that provide cleaner and more flexible energy for industrial and mobile applications. Off Grid provides us an entry point into the rapidly growing market for industrial grade energy storage systems, and accelerates our hybrid generator and C&I energy storage product roadmap. Off Grid continues to see robust demand for its products in its core European markets and we're working to bring new solutions to the rest of our geographic footprint, given our strong global relationships with rental equipment customers. Our integration efforts are off to a strong start with some legacy customers across Europe, having already placed orders for Off Grid products, highlighting early momentum in the sales synergies that we expect to realize.

In closing today, we have tremendous momentum in our business, as we close out the current year and head into 2022 with incredible home standby demand, and expanding energy technology solutions portfolio, a growing grid services sales pipeline and strong global demand for our C&I products. This provides support for yet another year of significant revenue growth with recent pricing and cost initiatives driving an improving margin profile. Day-to-day execution and navigation of the supply chain challenges, clearly remains a near-term priority for our teams, but we're also keeping a clear focus on our new long-term 'Powering a Smarter World' strategy, with our ultimate purpose to lead the evolution to a more resilient, efficient and sustainable energy solutions. Through the combination of aggressive organic investment and a series of strategic acquisitions over the past three years, Generac is uniquely positioned with our products, our services, our distribution, our brand, and importantly, our expertise to deliver the solutions necessary to facilitate the transition to the next generation electrical grid.

Importantly, we retain significant flex -- financial flexibility to further invest and expand our capabilities and continue to advance our evolution into an energy technology solutions company.

I'd now like to turn the call over to York to provide further details on third quarter results and our updated outlook. York?

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Aaron. Looking at third quarter 2021 results in more detail. Net sales increased 34% to $942.7 million during the third quarter of 2021, an all-time record, as compared to $701.4 million in the prior year third quarter. The combination of contributions from the Mean Green, Enbala, Deep Sea, Chilicon and Off Grid acquisitions, and the favorable impact from foreign currency, had an approximate 4% impact on revenue growth during the quarter.

Briefly, looking at consolidated net sales for the third quarter by product class, residential product sales grew to $608.8 million as compared to $458.9 million in the prior year, representing a 33% increase despite a strong prior-year comparable.

As Aaron already discussed in detail, home standby generator sales continue to experience robust year-over-year growth, advancing by 50% during the third quarter as we made further progress increasing production levels for these products despite challenging supply chain headwinds. Shipments of PWRcell energy storage systems grew at a significant rate as compared to the prior year, as storage attachment rates and market share gains continue to drive growth of Generac's clean energy solutions. This growth was partially offset by a decline in shipments of portable generators, which faced a strong prior year comparison from a record level of shipments to the hurricane Isaias in the prior year.

Commercial and industrial product net sales for the third quarter of 2021 increased 47% to $258.3 million as compared to $176.2 million in the prior year quarter. There was an approximate 15% benefit to net sales during the quarter from the impact of the Deep Sea and Off Grid acquisitions, along with a favorable foreign currency. The very strong core revenue growth was in part aided by the soft prior-year comparison due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, C&I revenue also grew approximately 7% on a core basis, as compared to 2019 levels. The strength in core sales was driven by growth across a number of end markets and geographies as demand is recovering at a strong rate, both domestically and internationally in the following areas.

Domestically, the growth was driven by a substantial increase in shipments to telecom national account customers due to much higher capital spending levels from these customers, as they continue to harden their wireless networks and prepare for 5G rollouts. Also contributing to the increase, was strong growth from mobile products to our rental channel customers as they are investing heavily in their fleets due to higher utilization and rental rates. We also experienced higher shipments of natural gas generators used and beyond standby applications.

Internationally, the increase in C&I products was broad based from a geographic standpoint, most notably in Europe and Latin America, as these markets continue to experience a sharp increase in demand of the prior year COVID lows and have recovered well above 2019 levels.

Net sales for the other products and services category, primarily made up of aftermarket service parts product accessories, extended warranty revenue, remote monitoring and grid services subscription revenue, and other service offerings, increased 14% to $75.6 million, as compared to $66.3 million in the third quarter of 2020. There was an approximate 4% benefit to net sales during the quarter from the impact of acquisitions and favorable foreign currency. Heightened power outage activity over the past several quarters continues to drive strong growth in aftermarket service parts. A larger and growing installed base of our products and higher levels of extended warranty revenue also contributed to the increase versus prior year.

Gross profit margin was 35.6% compared to 39.4% in the prior year third quarter, as higher input costs had a significant unfavorable impact during the quarter. Specifically, rising commodity prices, labor rates, and logistics costs, along with the Trenton plant start up, all pressured margins in the current-year quarter. The early impact of pricing actions partially offset these margin pressures, with the full impact expected to be realized throughout 2022 as these price increases worked through our backlog.

Operating expenses increased $41.9 million or 34.8% as compared to the third quarter of 2020, but declined 13 basis points as a percentage of revenue, excluding intangible amortization, due to the substantially higher sales volumes on the current-year quarter. The increase in opex dollars was primarily driven by additional variable expenses from a significant increase in sales volume, higher employee costs and marketing spend, and the impact of acquisitions. Specifically, recurring opex from the Mean Green, Enbala, Deep Sea, Chilicon, Apricity and Off Grid acquisitions, related higher amortization expense, and incremental transaction costs during the current year quarter.

As a result, adjusted EBITDA, before deducting for noncontrolling interests, as defined in our earnings release, was $209.2 million or 22.2% of net sales as compared to $178.8 million or 25.5% of net sales in the prior year. This EBITDA margin decrease was largely driven by the aforementioned decline in gross margin.

I will now briefly discuss financial results for our two reportable segments. Domestic segment sales increased 30% to $791 million, as compared to $607 million in the prior year quarter, with the impact of acquisitions contributing approximately 1% of the revenue growth for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $187.7 million, representing a 23.7% margin, as compared to $171.4 million in the prior year or 28.2% of net sales.

International segment sales increased 61% to $152 million, as compared to $94 million in the prior year quarter. Core sales, which excludes the favorable impact of acquisitions and currency, increased approximately 32% compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment, before deducting for noncontrolling interest, was $21.5 million or 14.1% of net sales, as compared to $7.4 million or 7.9% of net sales in the prior year. The strong growth in international EBITDA margins was primarily due to the favorable impact of the Deep Sea and Off Grid Energy acquisitions and incremental operating leverage on the higher sales volumes.

Now, switching back to our financial performance for the third quarter 2021 on a consolidated basis. As disclosed in our earnings release, GAAP net income attributable to the company in the quarter was $131.6 million, as compared to $115 million for the third quarter of 2020. GAAP income taxes during the current year third quarter were $32.6 million or an effective tax rate of 19.7% as compared to $32.1million or an effective tax rate of 21.8% for the prior year. The decline in effective tax rate was primarily due to a discrete tax item, resulting from a higher stock compensation deductions during the current year. Diluted net income per share for the company on a GAAP basis was $1.93 for the third quarter of 2021, compared to $1.82 for the prior year. Adjusted net income for the company, as defined in our earnings release, was $151.1 million in the current year quarter or $2.35 per share. This compares to adjusted net income of $132.9 million in the prior year or $2.08 per share.

Cash income taxes for the third quarter of 2021 were $31.3 million, as compared to $23.6 million in the prior year quarter. The current year now reflects an expected cash income tax rate of approximately 20% to 20.5% for the full year 2021, compared to our previous expectation of approximately 21% to 21.5%. The decrease primarily driven by a higher than expected level of stock compensation deduction. This expected full year cash tax rate compared to the prior year rate of 16%, that was anticipated after the third quarter of the prior year. The increase in the current year cash tax rate versus prior year is primarily due to a significant increase in domestic pre-tax income which is taxed at a higher statutory rate.

Cash flow from operations was $74 million as compared to $155 million in the prior year third quarter. And free cash flow, as defined in our earnings release, was $42 million as compared to $148 million in the same quarter last year. The decline in free cash flow was primarily due to a higher working capital investment in the current year quarter and higher capital expenditures, partially offset by an increase in operating earnings versus prior year. The higher working capital investment was driven by elevated inventory at the end of the current year quarter resulting from extended logistics in transit timing, continued supply chain constraints, ramping production rates, and the start-up of our new Trenton, South Carolina facility.

Updating our liquidity position, as of September 30, 2021, we had $873 million of liquidity, comprised of $424 million of cash on hand and $449 million of availability on our ABL revolving credit facility. Also, total debt outstanding at the end of the third quarter was $910 million, net of unamortized original issue discount and deferred financing costs. Our gross debt leverage ratio at the end of the third quarter was only 1.1 times on an as reported basis. Further enhancing this attractive capital structure is our strong cash flow profile, with free cash flow over the last 12 months at $455 million.

I would now like to provide some additional details on our outlook for full year 2021. As mentioned in our press release earlier this morning, we are maintaining our full-year 2021 net sales growth guidance range of approximately 47% to 50% compared to the prior year, which includes approximately 5% of favorable impact from acquisitions and foreign currency. The expected benefit from acquisitions is moderately higher than previously anticipated due to the impact of the Off Grid Energy, Tank Utility and ecobee acquisitions not included in our previous guidance.

Updating our margin outlook for the full year 2021. As we've discussed, we are continuing to experience significant supply chain challenges, logistics delays, and rising commodity prices which are resulting in higher input costs relative to our previous guidance. As a result of these factors, we now expect gross margin for the full-year '21 to decline approximately 150 basis points as compared to the prior year, which compares to the previous expectation of approximately flat versus the prior year. Due to the reduced gross margin outlook, adjusted EBITDA margins, before deducting for noncontrolling interests, are now expected to be approximately 23.5%, which compares to the previous guidance of 24.5% to 25%. As a result, we expect to maintain EBITDA margins compared to the prior year, despite the significant margin headwinds and acquisitions executed during the current year.

Providing some quick comments regarding our initial thoughts looking into 2022, the company's consolidated backlog has increased considerably since reporting our second quarter results. Most notably for home standby generators, but also across a broad range of other residential and C&I product categories. For example, and as Aaron mentioned, our home standby backlog alone is projected to be well over $1 billion entering the new year. The substantial overall backlog expected at the end of this year, provide support for another year of projected significant revenue growth in 2022, with an improving margin profile as we begin to realize the full impact of various pricing actions and cost reduction initiatives.

Throughout 2021, we have implemented multiple rounds of price increases across all product categories with different realization lags depending on lead times. We expect increasing realization of all 2021 pricing actions throughout the first half of 2022, with the full benefit realized by the second half of 2022. We also are pursuing certain cost reduction initiatives to combat the significant increase in input costs, including important projects focused on profitability enhancement and continuous improvement activities.

We will now provide additional guidance details to assist with modeling, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow for 2021. As mentioned previously, our cash income tax rate is now expected to be between 20% to 20.5%, which compares to prior guidance of 21% to 21.5%. GAAP intangible amortization expense for 2021 is now forecasted to be approximately $45 million to $47 million, as compared to the previous guidance of approximately $49 million, with the decrease primarily due to updated purchase accounting adjustments related to recent acquisitions. Stock compensation expense is now expected to be approximately $26 million to $27 million, as compared to previous guidance of $24 million, primarily due to the impact of additional acquisitions since our second quarter update.

Our GAAP effective tax rate is now expected to be between 22% to 22.5% for the full year compared to the previous guidance range of 22.5% to 23.5%. The decline is primarily due to a higher level of stock compensation deduction during the current year. Our fourth quarter weighted average diluted share count is now expected to be approximately $64.5 million shares, assuming the December 1 closing of the ecobee transaction.

This concludes our prepared remarks. At this time, we'd like to open up the call for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Tommy Moll from Stephens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Tommy Moll -- Stephens -- Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Tommy.

Tommy Moll -- Stephens -- Analyst

Aaron, I wanted to start on ecobee, specifically on the go to market there, how do they go to market or how have they gone to market historically? How does that change when you tuck it as -- into your portfolio? And when you think about the edge that Generac will bring as the owner of this business going forward where there some fairly stiff competition, how would you frame that for us?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, thanks for the question on that, Tommy. No, ecobee is going to be -- I think, we'll look back a couple of years from now, and that's going to be out a really critical turning point for us as we continue on this journey, as the evolution we talk about any way of becoming an energy technology company.

Specific to your question on distribution, what we really like about them is that they refer to their go-to-market or their distribution strategy has omnichannel, which is exactly how we would refer to our own. They sell through retailers, big-box retailers. They sell online on those platforms. They sell through dealers. They have over 40,000 HVAC contractors that represent them in the marketplace. So, really a pretty wide net in terms of just the way they go to market. They sell to distributors, HVAC distributors. So, it's really truly omnichannel. So, we like that. It fits well. We think there's going be a lot of interesting synergies there. Our electrical channel can certainly install a thermostat, and conversely, their trades can install some of our other products as well. So, we think there is a really good fit there.

The thermostat market, if you just look at thermostats, the definition, you're right, it's a pretty big market. This is truly, I would say beyond that, though. This is about the intelligent thermostat platform, and the smart thermostat platform. And there really are only a handful of true competitors to what ecobee does. Ecobee created this category. Basically, Stuart Lombard, great -- the person who runs that business up there, great entrepreneur, began that business in 2007, and by 2009, they had introduced the markets first true smart thermostat. And others have joined, you're right. But I think what -- when we think about our differentiation going forward, the combination of the smart thermostats as just one of the elements of as what we were keep referring to as a home energy ecosystem, right. This is more than just the thermostat, it's more than just a water heater controller, it's more than just a single storage device or solar on the rooftop or a generator, right, or a load management device. This is about the integration of all of those things. And what we really like about ecobee is it gives us a platform, and it gives us a team of over 500 people up in Toronto that are steeped in user interfaces and user experience, that is what we need to bring all of these assets together, to combine them in a single pane of glass, for view and control by the consumer, and then for easy attachment to grid programs through our Concerto platform.

So, we think that this is kind of the middle layer that is -- it's much more than just the thermostat, it's the middle layer that we need going forward to bring all of the stuff to bear, as the grid continues to change, and as the home energy ecosystem continues to develop. So, we're -- I'm just really excited about this. This is a cool product. If you've ever looked at the product itself and just the quality of it, the premium look and finish of the product itself and the platform. If you've ever use the ecobee platform, it's definitely, I think going to be a really cool platform to put all of our devices into.

Tommy Moll -- Stephens -- Analyst

Thank you, Aaron. And that's very helpful. As a follow-up I wanted to talk to your HSP business, where recently at the Investor Day, you gave some directional insight on really favorable cost per lead trends. So, you're still supply constrained there notwithstanding some major efforts to alleviate that bottleneck, but if you weren't supply constrained in this environment, Aaron, how many more sales and marketing dollars could you deploy efficiently into that customer acquisition funnel, we're talking 25% more dollars, 50%?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

I think what's interesting, Tommy, is we really haven't backed off on deploying the dollars, even though we're supply constrained. And this is maybe why the lead times continue to grow, which is not what we want to see for our customers. But I think we've got our arms around some really good longer-term plans here to continue to expand capacity; all the things that we have been working on, that will come online next year. And then, we made some pretty big commitments here in the third quarter very recently around, not only the expansion of the Trenton facility, which I think is an important commitment, but commitments toward additional automated manufacturing equipment to help us scale even further there.

But your question is a good one. I would tell you that our marketing team watches the statistics very, very closely, and if they were to see the cost per lead starting to change, right, around where we're spending and where we're deploying dollars, they would throttle back the spending, and so far that really hasn't been the case. So, I think what people sometimes don't realize this -- a home standby generator project was already kind of a long-term -- it was a longer, I would say, project timeline for most people, because there's permitting involved, there is contractors involved, you have the work itself, you have inspectors. Clearly, it wasn't seven months before, but it generally was two, three months. And I think people realize in today's environment that we are supply constraint, a lot of things, not just home standby generators; appliances, vehicles, you name it, and it's tough to find things today.

So, I think there is -- call it an acceptance level, I don't know what it is, but I think people are somewhat accepting the fact that they have to wait. And I also think, it also speaks to just how in tune people are with the importance of having backup power. The outages have been increasing. They've been lasting longer. I think people are spending a ton more time in their homes and they realize just how vulnerable they are and what that means to the ability to work from home, their kids ability to learn from home, all the things that we need to do from home, only happen where there's a continuous source of power.

So, I think a generator is just going to be -- it's going to be an appliance that we all have here going forward. We're going to need that as the grid continues to change. And that's why we're committed to expanding our capacity. We've got a lot of confidence in where this is going longer term. And I think that, as it relates to marketing dollars, we're going to continue to spend there too, as long as it makes sense financially.

Tommy Moll -- Stephens -- Analyst

Thanks, Aaron. I appreciate the insight and I'll turn it back.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning. Thanks guys.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Ross.

Ross Gilardi -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

I just had some questions just on York's preliminary comments on the '22 revenue growth, just wanted to see if I'm thinking about it right. But it would seem, if you deliver the backlog alone, I think a critical planning assumption that you had at the Investor Day was to work that backlog down to essentially 0 by the end of 2022. I mean a $1 billion plus backlog, that alone is close to 30% revenue growth next year. Am I thinking about that correctly? And from a install or distribution perspective, are you confident that you've got enough distributors, installers on the ground right now to get those all installed or do they just end up sitting in limbo for a period of time?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Hi, Ross, this is Aaron, I'll take some of those question. I'll kick it to York here too, if he wants to jump in. And maybe, just on the backlog, I think directionally, you're thinking about it right. I mean, we've got -- clearly, we're going to have a bigger backlog coming into '22 than we originally thought because demand's just been stronger. I mean, it's outstripping supply. We're hitting record output levels on HSP. We could go higher if not for some of the -- and a lot of our constraints here are pure logistics-related. I mean, just the nuttiness of getting components from point A to point B right now, just the amount of dwell time that's going on with the components in the ports and trying to find trucks, everything else you've heard about from every single company in America, we're no different. And that is -- that's kind of holding us back a bit. But we think that's temporary, that will resolve. We're confident that we'll get our feet under us as a country here around getting our supply chains repaired. But directionally, you're right.

I think that the real question is, we talked about this double-double in terms of our capacity, that's theoretical capacity, if the supply chain constraints persist into the first half of next year, that could obviously create some headwinds, right, to what we originally thought of in terms of ultimate theoretical capacity. So, that's something we've got to watch. Longer term, again, we feel like we've got a good plan to go even higher, to go even further with home standby capacity. We've got the confidence to do that.

I think you may have hit on something, though, that's really important here, is in the distribution network, in terms of installation. We have 8,100 dealers today. We're growing that number. We've grown 1,100 dealers over the last 12 months; the most in any last 12-month period we've ever grown, and we're going to need to grow a lot more. The reality of it is, we're going to have to pick up the pace of installations, so that we can keep pace as we deliver more products going into next year.

Now, remember, that dealers aren't the only people who do installations, installations are also done generally by contractors. There's over 70,000 electrical contractors out there, and there is over 100,000 HVAC contractors, and both of those trades do HSP installation. So, it's beyond just our dealers. They do the lion's share, but it's also other trades that are involved, who may not be dealers for us. So, we have a pretty wide availability of contractors, but we really need to do a lot more training, we need to find more dealers and we've got a, I would say an outside [Phonetic] effort, an outside focus on that for next year.

I don't know, York, if there's any additional comments you want to make?

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

I think you hit the -- what is the supply chain environment next year and what we catch backlog next year, I think it's all a function of what does the supply chain look like, and what does the outage environment look like. So, I think that that would be my --

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

But it's setting up to be a monster year just based on the backlog we've got alone.

Ross Gilardi -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Okay, great. Can I ask a follow-up question?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes.

Ross Gilardi -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

The original plan, I think the original plan, even last quarter, was to get EBITDA margin back to Q1 '21 levels in the fourth quarter. And obviously, that's changed, as reflected in your guidance, but do you get back there in the first half of '22, and can you give us a sense of the run rate pricing contribution to revenue growth entering next year?

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, no, I think, as I mentioned, we've had multiple rounds of pricing across, really across all categories. I mean, with home standby, there is roughly four that went in place. One, earlier in the year, like, call it December, January, and other in, call it, May, June, another one September, another one we're contemplating recently. So, when you think about how all those are going to pace into next year, the May increase, we'll start seeing that probably the beginning of 2022. The September increase, we'll actually see, because that was on shipments, we'll see that here in Q4. That was a smaller one. The one coming up here, that probably won't realize till, let's say, July, given our lead times. So, I think -- and then, you look at other products, we're also -- we've rolled out pricing as well. So, I think, I would say, by the end of the first half of 2022, we'll get full realization of all of our pricing, that should get us to gross margins that were, at least look more similar to where they were in the beginning of the year. We're putting our budgets together as we speak. So, not giving clear guidance as to what that looks like, but it'll definitely improve.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

It's definitely going to improve. And it will improve that sequentially throughout next year. I would say, Ross, it's interesting, as we unpack this, the way that the costs rose so rapidly, in particular around logistics, I mean, that was -- and steel, certain commodity costs that were heavy in our products, two things happened. One, we have this -- we just got long lead times on the products. So, getting pricing to realize, we are somewhat constrained there, just because of the outsized demand for HSP, in particular.

But then, also, I would say our cost lags, if you will, have shortened, because we're burning through material so much quicker. The pace of production is increasing at such a volatile pace where I think lags of increases in the past with commodities and other things might have taken us a while longer to get through and start to show and read through in the EBITDA margins or even the gross margins, they're reading through quicker right now. So, temporarily, we got a good plan to get ahead of it. I feel really good about where we're going to be next year.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen from Roth Capital. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Philip Shen -- ROTH Capital Partner -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one -- hey, thanks again. The first one is around capacity, you announced that expansion in Trenton yesterday, I just wanted to check to see if that was a part of the double by Q2 2022.

And then, you mentioned, Aaron, that you've secured equipment for 2023. So, I'm wondering if you could expand on whether or not you've made a decision on capacity expansion beyond the Q2 '22 double? So, have you guys locked in supply chain agreements, which I believe are critical and have you made any commitments there?

And then, finally, the Jefferson facility, I think, you guys have converted that to being permanent, is that key for reaching that Q2 '22 double as well? Thanks, guys.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Got it. Thanks, Phil. Yes, capacity and HSP, let's just kind of run through a couple of things in your question. So, the expansion of trend, for so net expansion to add 200,000 square feet to that facility, that is really about warehousing and distribution. So, I wouldn't say it would impact our double-double at all. What it's representative of is our confidence that we're going to be able to run at an elevated rate down there for an extended period of time. We would have had to do the warehousing and distribution into that with 3PLs. By bringing it in-house, we just -- we get a nice payback on that project pretty quickly. So, that just made a lot of sense. And I think is indicative of kind of longer term feelings that we have about, not only trend, we like the facility, we like the labor pool, but also just the category home standby in general.

Now, on the additional capacity that we talked about on our prepared remarks, with the long lead time automated manufacturing equipment, really what's going on there is, as we've talked, Phil, we have some internal components we manufacture that, of which, the tooling to make that equipment has just gotten crazy long. I mean, we're talking 60 weeks to 70 weeks long in terms of ordering the equipment, and getting it delivered, and starting to run it off.

So, what we're doing there is we're basically saying, look, we have confidence in the category, we have confidence in the demand we're seeing, let's get our tooling on order. We don't even know where we're going to put the tooling, right. We're not exactly sure if it's going to go in maybe another expansion of Trenton, or maybe, maybe we squeeze it into Whitewater, maybe put it in Jefferson, I'll address that here in a second, or maybe it's a whole another facility. We don't really know yet. What we do know is, it will allow us to go further than the double-double that we talked about, right. So, it gets us set up to do that. So, now, we start the rest of the ground game that has to get done their around supply chain, around all the other elements that have to fall into place.

And we'll be able to provide more color on that as we get closer to, but we just, we felt like we had to take the first step here. Given the lead times on that equipment, we just wanted to make sure that we got ahead of it. And we didn't want to get in a situation where we couldn't react. So, we're kind of putting our markers down for the future there.

And then, on Jefferson, you're right, we kind of took a facility where we're making portable generators, power washers, chore products, and we've added capacity for HSP, we added another production line there, here recently in the third quarter. So, we're producing more out of Jefferson. And we anticipate producing more as we end the year here. If you recall, we mentioned that we're going to the outside for some key components that we normally manufacturer. So, we spooled up some of the components on the outside. Those are going to start to be delivered here in the back half of the fourth quarter. And they're going to go to Jefferson where they're going to help us increase capacity there.

Whether or not we continue to do that long term, I think we're going to continue to do it for the foreseeable future, for certain the next 12 months. I think all of '22 we'll be producing HSV in Jefferson. And likely into 2023, depending on what kind of backlog, if we're able to knock the backlog out next year, which is looking less and less likely, just given where the demand is. I mean, it just keeps coming every day. It's amazing. And so, where that demand ends up, where we may end up for the year in 2022, will kind of dictate how we feel about '23. And then, some of that will be about where we put that new tooling as well. So, more to come on that, but definitely taking the next steps that we think we need to be able to go far beyond that existing double-double that we've talked about for capacity and HSP.

Philip Shen -- ROTH Capital Partner -- Analyst

Great. Thank you for that. As it relates ecobee, based on our industry checks last night, we're guesstimating that the revenue run rate is, call it, $30 million to $50 million, and the company's probably running at breakeven, are we in the right ballpark here? And if so, what kind of year-over-year growth could you see for ecobee in 2022?

And finally, how are they managing through the chip shortages? I'm guessing they're having some issues there as well, perhaps, that's a near term challenge, but something that they work through over time? Thanks.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, no, good questions, Phil. Again, we're really excited about this one. No, ecobee is quite a bit bigger than that. So, there are about, probably closer to 125 million in reps, and that's supply chain constrained, to your point on chips. They could be going higher than that, but they do have, as you would imagine, some supply chain constraints. They are working through those like we all are. And we're adding additional chip capacity across that product line. Stuart and his team are doing a nice job in navigating that. Their growth rate is going to be about 3 times the Generac growth rate, as we laid it out in the LRP model for the Investor Day. So, they've got a lot of aggressive growth on the table. That's not only devices, but it's also services, so pretty exciting. That's a lot of growth coming out of the services piece going forward.

But no, it's actually, it's -- I kind of call it a start-up, that's kind of getting to scale. They've been around 14 years, and they've spent a lot of time getting to this point and we're really starting to see an inflection here in the last couple of years. They are still in investment mode. So, they're generating operating losses today and will continue to do so. We're going to continue that investment cycle over the next couple of years. It's probably going to be a couple of years before they breakeven. So -- but that doesn't worry us. We think it's an important investment to continue to make, not only around their existing platforms, around the home energy monitoring, but also, again, around integration and synchronization of all of our assets that are part of our home energy ecosystem going forward.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Drab from William Blair. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Brian Drab -- William Blair -- Analyst

Hey, good morning. First, can you just talk about the supply chain issues that you might be facing or could face as you try to ramp capacity additionally, setting up the new distribution warehouse, any of the equipment that you need. We're talking a lot about supply chain issues as it relates to building generators, but just getting the equipment that you need into these facilities, how is that going?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Brian, it's a great question. We're still -- we're actually pacing pretty well with the existing equipment that's been on order. The new equipment that we've ordered here recently and committed to, part of the reason why that equipment is out on long-run lead times is due to some component shortages. These are automated systems. So, there is a lot of logic in them, a lot of chips, and they're struggling with that. But the existing systems that we're bringing on here in Q1 and Q2 of next year, are still holding in there in terms of the timeline. So, we feel good about that. No material delays there.

The rest of the supply chain challenges, whether it be building out the Trenton facility or some of the other things that we're trying to do here, I think we've effectively, we've built that into our assumptions around the timing of when those things will become meaningful to us, or when they'll become -- when they'll come online. It's really the near-term true component supply chain that's been just -- that really deteriorated in the third quarter.

And we sat there, even when we talked to everybody at our Investor Day, I mean, just what it did from the end of, kind of the middle to the end of September, to the end of October, was disappointing, right, just the amount of ships at anchor on the West Coast, just the trucking challenges, the rail challenges, the port challenges, the amount of additional time it's taking to get things here. Forget about the cost to get it here, which is mind numbing as well, but the time, it's really the time factor to get it here. I'm really hopeful that that's going to start to turnaround here over the next, the next 60 days I'm hoping are going to be better. We're hearing indications that perhaps things have bottomed on that side in terms of just where they've been, and hopefully that will improve on a go forward basis. But every day, it seems to be something different that we're fighting a fire on.

Brian Drab -- William Blair -- Analyst

Thanks. And then, as a follow-up, the mind-numbing costs, can you, maybe this is for York, but can you quantify what do you expect the excess transportation costs to be in 2021, and if we move into a world in 2022 where that starts to subside? I'm just trying to get a sense for how helpful that could be to your financial model for next year?

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I mean, just looking at the gross margin reduction here in Q3, gross margins reduced over 3%, that was predominantly all price cost as a headwind. And then, just looking forward into Q4, that's another something similar, almost 4% price cost, they're impacting us in Q4 year-over-year. So, if that moderates -- and coupled with the pricing actions on top of it, that could have a pretty quick-snap back in terms of profitability.

Brian Drab -- William Blair -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Joseph Osha -- Guggenheim Partners -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Thank you for taking the question. We haven't talked about Chilicon much today. I'm wondering as you think about that launch and all of the things we've been talking about here in terms of availability of components and price, how that's looking right now?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it's a great point, Joe. I'm glad you asked the question because we haven't talked a lot about Chilicon and probably, out of all the acquisitions we've done, and ecobee represents a pretty nice size TAM as well, but the TAM available to us through Chilicon, through those microinverters, is big. And the team is making really good progress on the launch of those products in Q2 of next year. So, still hanging in there with our commitment to do that. We're watching obviously availability of components. We're working to scale the contract manufacturer that Chilicon was using and then we're adding other contract manufacturing resources. We're going to broaden that supply chain out so that we believe we've got enough supply to get going on that next year.

But as we starting to take a look at our plan for next year, we're kind of sitting there, stepping back and saying, look, there's a lot of people that have interest in these products, and we are setting up to have a pretty healthy position on supply. So, we got to put all that together when we put our 2022 guidance together formally. But I would say the initial receptivity continues to be strong. Our project remains online and on target. And the internal excitement here around what we can do with that product line is -- I mean, if you talk to Russ Minick and his team, I mean, he is incredibly bullish on what we're going to be able to do with that longer-term.

Joseph Osha -- Guggenheim Partners -- Analyst

Excellent. Thanks. And then, a follow-up on ecobee, as you point out, there is a lot of people who tried [Technical Issue] been terribly successful in that market. One of the things people talk a lot about is fully integrated home load management, right, which you guys are coming to potentially from a different spot, especially as you ramp storage and [Indecipherable]. I'm wondering, when you have Chilicon, and you have storage, and you can offer that as part of a complete package, might you also go to customers and say, hey, we can put in, with this technology, a complete home load management suite. Is that going to be part of what you're trying to do?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Absolutely. I mean we -- It is interesting. I think people -- just you hear the -- you hear that Generac acquired ecobee, and somebody says, why get into the thermostat business? I think that's a pretty, frankly, myopic view of what we're getting into, and what we're getting into is the home energy ecosystem. And, look, HVAC represents the largest energy load in a home today, that may change in the future with the electrification of our transportation. But today, it's the largest electrical load and the largest energy load in a home, you combine that with our generation capabilities, whether it be PV generation, or whether it's using a natural gas generator with storage, with our load management, with thermostatic control, water heater control, right, and water heater's another massive load in the home.

You start looking across that spectrum, you could see very quickly, Joe, where it makes a ton of sense for us to include ecobee thermostats or other grid edge devices with somebody who might be looking at a storage system or solar plus storage, because when you think about it in the context of the total amount of money they are going to spend on that system, frankly, the grid edge devices, being thermostats and water heater controllers and load management controls, they're relatively small, but they add a tremendous amount of value in rounding out the value proposition, not only for the homeowner. But also, again, for the grid operator. I think that's where it gets really interesting is what we can do with that through our Concerto platform.

So, anyway, we're taking a really long view with this, but it's an exciting view of the world kind of in the future grid 2.0 context that I think you've got to step back and you've got to kind of see where the puck is going here, and that's kind of what we're doing with this acquisition.

Joseph Osha -- Guggenheim Partners -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you so much.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

You bet.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Strouse from JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Mark Strouse -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Yes, good morning. And thanks for taking our questions. Aaron, I wanted to go back to a comment you made at the Analyst Day where you thought that you'd be able to get backlog back to "normalized level" by the end of 2022. And even back then, you said there's a lot of factors that go into that, but just curious, over the past month, since you've made that statement, are you more optimistic, less optimistic on that ability?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I mean, it's a great question, Mark, and one that we're talking about here as we put together our kind of formal guidance for 2022. I would say informally though, what our comment -- just answering your question directly about how I feel about it today versus maybe how I felt about it four weeks or six weeks ago when we put together the IR materials, the IR Day materials. I would say I'm less optimistic that we're going to be able to catch the full backlog next year as we exit the year. I just -- the demand has outstripped here over the last, in the more recent period here, as we ended Q3, and as we have come into Q4, it's just, it's odd to me. I mean -- and we really have had -- October, for the most part, was a pretty quiet month on outages. But the demand has been continuing just to be off the charts. I mean, there's really no two ways to say it. I mean, everything from our leading indicators like IHCs to our lagging indicators like activations.

And then, obviously, the incoming orders that are outstripping our record production levels here. It's just -- the set up there is -- and it's clear to us, as we continue to peel back the onion on why that is that, the Home as a Sanctuary trend, the electrification of everything, the concern about just power security, power reliability, these things are real. These things are driving people to solutions like home standby generators and clean energy storage devices. And we're coming to a point of realization I think that -- and it's why we made the comments about our commitments to the longer-term home standby capacity increases, because we just feel like this is -- we're maybe at a tipping point here with this category, where we're just shy of, what, 6% penetration, I think today, and the acceleration on that is phenomenal.

We could be entering a period here where this is something that we think about as that every home has to have. And there is a lot in between 6% and saying something that every home has to have. Remember, every 1% is $2.5 billion. So, every 1% of penetration is $2.5 billion of market. And we're over 75% share in this space. So, it's good math, right. I mean, it's just -- it's a great set up, but we've got to be prepared for it, everything from the ability to produce these products to the ability to install and service the products. So, products -- so, there's going to be a tremendous amount of focus. There has been a tremendous amount of focus so far, but there needs to be a lot more focus by us going forward on all those areas, so that we're ready for this, so that we can enable this, because the secular things that we're seeing out here causing it, we don't see changing anytime soon. So, yes, we just got to be ready for it.

Mark Strouse -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Aaron. And then, just a follow-up question on Phil's question, just about ecobee. I appreciate the near-term outlook, what do you think the longer-term margin contribution is from that business? And then, 2B is, what do you think the -- I guess what are the clean power margins, generally speaking, today?

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So, I guess when you think about ecobee and you look at, as we ramp that up and they grow, their margin profile in the out years looks very similar to our clean energy business. We've talked about how that will probably be in the mid to high teens EBITDA margins from a gross margin standpoint, closer to that mid 30% range. So, we would expect ecobee, again, in the out years to look similar to that overall clean energy business in the out years.

Today, clean energy, just thinking storage, that is a profitable business today. We haven't quoted exactly what margin profile is. It's profitable today, but over time, over the next, call it, few years, that will also grow into that mid to high teens EBITDA margins as well. So, we've got a roadmap and a path to get there.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jed Dorsheimer from Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jed Dorsheimer -- Canaccord Genuity Group Inc -- Analyst

Hey, thanks, guys. And congrats with ecobee. I've had the pleasure of working with Stuart. I think he will definitely be a great fit to the Generac family there.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

And we're excited about it, Jed. Thanks.

Jed Dorsheimer -- Canaccord Genuity Group Inc -- Analyst

So, I just, Aaron, I guess first question, grid services, you were a bit more vocal than I've heard you in terms of some of the value proposition or unlocking the value proposition, I guess with the installed base. And so, I was wondering if you might be able to unpack that a little bit more. And so, if I look out at the installed capacity that's underutilized out in the field of generators, it looks like well over 20 gigawatts of generating capacity. So, now that you're going to be adding in this intelligence with ecobee, how do you get me, if I have a 24 kilowatt generator, to sign up for being able to access my generator when I don't need that through the Concerto, for example? And where are you in that process with utilities? Does that have to go through a rate case or how do you -- how does that kind of evolve to unlocking that 20 plus gigawatt?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, thanks for the question, Jed. Grid services, you're right, we were a little bit more vocal on at this time because we continue to gain confidence based on, honestly, just the sheer number of proposals in our pipeline. It's changed dramatically in the one-year that we've owned Enbala. The Concerto platform, they just did their latest release of the platform that adds additional functionality, that adds, again, the smart grid ready capability to our products. We've added here, initially, the home standby generators, C&I gas generators, our PWRcell systems, even our PowerManager, the load management device, we're making all of those smart grid ready.

And as we see more proposals coming in, it gets us more and more excited about the opportunity to connect those assets through Concerto to these grid operators to be able to participate in these programs. I will tell you that there is still this, I don't want to say it's a missing link, but there is the connection process of the marketing process, right, of going out to a utilities rate payers and saying, OK, we can walk in today, we've got this, we've demonstrated here at the Investor Day. You guys may have remembered, back in our labs here, we showed our map, if you will, of the US, and where we can zoom in on all of the assets we have on the ground, these distributed energy resources; be they generators, or be they storage systems, or load management devices.

And now, going forward, be they ecobee products like thermostats and sensors, we're going to put all of that into the map. But we can go to a local utility and we can have a conversation with them that's much more than just, hey, tell us about your needs. We can go in there, we can say, hey, did you know that you have this many hundreds of megawatts available to you in your market that could be connected? It's on the ground today. These assets are there. And so, and that's just -- it's stunning. The amount of information that provides to these utilities -- they had no idea. They have no idea that this exists today. It's not something they have to do in the future, it's something they have today.

The next question is, OK, how do we connect it? How do we reach those consumers that own those assets and enroll them into the platform, and then get them on these programs? So, it's each utility is a little different, as you know, some utilities move a little faster than others. Today, we're in pilot on a number of programs with some utilities around taking existing generator owners or existing PWRcell owners or new PWRcell owners and marketing to them the opportunity to enroll that asset. If they've already got it installed, great. If they don't, they can buy one, get it installed, and get enrolled.

We're going through pilot on a number of these programs, and we're already exercising control. We're giving the utilities control over these pilot programs. And they're very excited about what they think they can do and what they think it means to the way they operate their grids in the future. Look, they have their backs against the wall, right. They are being mandated to -- and we all want to do this, we want to decarbonize our energy use. And that decarbonization is going to come from putting more renewables on the supply side. But with that, comes more instability, right. So, you talk about the change in the grid. There is the three Ds, right, decarbonization, digitization, and decentralization. That's what the new grid is going to look like. The pace that we're going, to get there though, creates a fourth D, create some destabilization, potentially, right. So, some instability around these renewables that are online that maybe are not as predictable for baseload usage.

So, what we have to do is we've got to give new tools to grid operators to solve for this challenge. A grid operator's entire day is consumed by figuring out how to keep supply and demand in balance. And that's exactly what the Concerto platform does. That's why we continue to add more grid assets like ecobee into our mix, because we think that the more assets we can deliver to these grid operators and utilities, the more value as a partner we're going to bring. And certainly, more value, we're going to bring to the homeowner in terms of them being able to control and optimize their energy consumption. So, really exciting future around that, but it's really all about grid services down the line, and that's why we talk more about it today.

Jed Dorsheimer -- Canaccord Genuity Group Inc -- Analyst

That's great. And great explanation. Just as my follow-up, I want to shift gears a little bit, Aaron, just ask you about Europe. It's rare that you see a setup that seems this obvious. So, as you look at the many of the misguided policies that Europe's pursuing and how that sets up for an opportunity to capture the lack of resilience that going into this winter, how are you thinking about positioning the business? I mean, I know your supply constrained right now and you're trying to do what you can in Trenton but it seems like demand could just explode out of Europe, and I'm wondering how you're thinking about that in terms of being able to capture that value?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. It's an area of the world, as you said, it's kind of an obvious one, in terms of just the challenges, and the challenging setup you're going into the winter months for the Europeans in the way that they're -- in some cases, there are dangerous energy situations there. And our products can help. I mean, the interest level, and in particular on home standby, which picked up. We saw that very broadly as well with Home as a Sanctuary last year. We saw interest outside the US pickup far beyond anything we had seen previously for the category. And so, but you're right, we're supply constrained. That's the unfortunate side of things, but we're still getting product over there. We're up dramatically in what we're delivering to Europe. It's still very small as a base, but it's growing very quickly. Storage is another area, we think that we have an opportunity there. It's probably a little bit further out as we deliver on some modifications to our existing PWRcell system. We'll have a new system coming out in 2023, and that system is probably going to be a little bit better fit for some of the European applications, but we are looking at how we might go after that market more aggressively here because it's going to take, it's going to take some time to get our distribution and our go-to-market approach under us there. So, working on that.

I will point out, the Off Grid acquisition that we did, is all about what's going on in Europe, right, with storage in general. On the C&I side, we're seeing a lot of opportunities there. And certainly, in the rental markets, to provide storage for the different applications there, whether it'd be entertainment applications or construction applications or things like that, where clearly, the high cost of diesel fuel, and even the availability, in some cases, of fuel in general, is causing challenges.

So, we're seeing storage systems like the off grid systems become a lot more popular. That asset is -- in the short period of time we've owned it, just the order book there has been really fun to kind of watch that grow as those products get introduced. We introduced them to our legacy channel partners there. But yes, Europe represents a huge market opportunity. We're going to stay focused on it. But I'd love to say that we're going to be able to do something more there next year, but we got a tiger by the tail here in North America as well.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question will be from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jeff Hammond -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Hey, good morning. This is David Tarantino on for Jeff.

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, David.

Jeff Hammond -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

So, just kind of attacking these supply chain headwinds from a different angle, could you just provide some color on how the extended lead times to 30 weeks balances out between supply shortages, and then just the underlying demand strength?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it's really more the -- I would say the underlying demand strength, because, the order book has continued to be very, very strong. There is certainly some component, as I said, our ability to ramp to the theoretical capacity numbers we talked about for next year, mid-year next year, may be somewhat constrained by supply chain in the short term. We still think that's probably maybe a first half '22 story, and then should abate. But I would say, we're more constrained right now just based on the inability to just go beyond what -- as we get up the learning curve here in Trenton, and as we put a second line on in Jefferson, and then as we go into next year with the new tooling, that's going to get delivered there, that's just kind of the pacing of getting to those levels that we've talked about. And certainly, some supply chain constraints today causing that, but I would say it's more just demand outstripping -- even if we were able to produce at max capacity today, I fear that demand would be outstripping that, given where we're at. So, it's more -- I think it's more of that than it is supply chain constraints.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Pearce Hammond from Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Pearce Hammond -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Yes. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Specifically related to acquisitions, you've made a number of acquisitions here recently, just curious if you're going to pause to try to digest some of these and integrate? And then, if you are looking for future acquisitions, what white [Phonetic] space is still available within this energy technology solutions kind of mandate?

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

That's a great question, Pearce. I mean, we have done a lot of acquisitions this year. We've done six of them. The ecobee acquisition was number six this year. That's a lot for us. And I don't think we started the year -- we didn't set out the year to do six. Acquisition timing -- what we've learned over the years of doing, I think we've done something like 23 or 24 deals now, the timing of those deals, we generally don't dictate that dictate that. It's generally indicated by sellers or dictated by market processes, things like that. So, it just happened that this year we got six. They came to us. We have a really strong team here. And thankfully, the acquisitions have actually been spread out nicely across our C&I business, across our residential business, across our clean-energy businesses. So, the teams have been able to absorb them. I think they haven't all been in one particular part of our business, which I think is good. In fact, some of them were international, right, like the Off Grid acquisition and Deep Sea, those acquisitions are being handled by the international teams.

So, I don't think that we'll sit here and say, OK, let's stop and not do any more acquisitions because we need to absorb these. I think what we'll say is how do we go find the resources to do the integration needed, so that we can continue to accelerate our strategy, right? That's what -- we use acquisitions to accelerate strategy. Some people have this narrative out there that we're -- that acquisitions are there, we're buying revenue and we're trying to obfuscate certain things. I have no idea what that's about. Look at our strategy, look at the acquisitions we've done this year, and it's a spot on fit. So, everything we're doing with strategy. So, wherever we think we can accelerate strategy, we're going to use acquisitions.

As far as white space is concerned, there are still some areas out there that, when you look at the residential space, continue to look at like heavy amperage loads in the home, I think there are some spaces there where whether it's -- it could be an EV charging, it could be in other types of appliances that might have -- wherein control of those things might be important. Although I will say, we've taken a big step forward with ecobee, but on the C&I side, we still have some other areas. The Off Grid acquisition while giving us a nice head start on energy storage for C&I, is still, it's really more aimed at the mobile applications or rental application. So, I think there are some things there that we'd like to round out. But we've made some significant progress toward this effort of building the home energy ecosystem this year, and also getting going on our C&I storage.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Hi, this is Ashok Mohan [Phonetic] on for Jerry Revich. In terms of the cost headwinds in the fourth quarter, can you describe how much is expected to be transient versus permanent?

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

I guess, I mean, if you look at the impacts of commodities --

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it's going to depend on your expediting commodity costs --

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

When we say logistics too, there is like expediting costs because when there's supply chain constraints, you're expediting more. So, it's not just the cost of a container, you're doing some things maybe artificially to get it here faster. So, I guess, what is your view on steel, copper and aluminum, I guess that's one answer to your question. Logistics, as long as things are busy and demand is strong, there's going to be supply chain constraints for a while, at least it's well documented that way. But at some point, things will normalize here with the supply chain and logistics, and then things -- cost should normalize at that point. So, I guess all of this is transient, if you have a little bit longer-term view. But what I will say is the impact of the cost -- higher input cost is going to be transient as we roll in our pricing actions and other cost reduction initiatives. So, the impact of them will be transient.

Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi from Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Maheep Mandloi -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. So, just a quick one on the working capital as we look into the next two quarters, should we expect similar working capital increase for Q4 and Q1 because of the inventory challenges here? Thanks.

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. And I mean, I think -- I highlighted four things that are causing elevated inventory, just it's taking longer for things to get here. So, the transit times are extended. The supply chain constraints are caused when certain components don't arrive to the line and everything else does, you get a little bit of backup in inventory. We are ramping production. So, to the extent we're ramping production, that should continue. And we're basically -- and once we get Trenton up and running too, that's going to be increasing as well, as we go into Q1 next year. So, I'd probably say, relative to the ramping part of the discussion, that will continue into Q1. But I think with regards to the longer in transit times, and just the supply chain constraints, I think that probably has worked its way through, and hopefully should level off here in the next year.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Michael, please continue.

Michael W. Harris -- Vice President-Corporate Development & Investor Relations

We want to thank everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter 2021 earnings results with you in mid-February. Thank you again and goodbye.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 88 minutes

Call participants:

Michael W. Harris -- Vice President-Corporate Development & Investor Relations

Aaron P. Jagdfeld -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

York A. Ragen -- Chief Financial Officer

Tommy Moll -- Stephens -- Analyst

Ross Gilardi -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Philip Shen -- ROTH Capital Partner -- Analyst

Brian Drab -- William Blair -- Analyst

Joseph Osha -- Guggenheim Partners -- Analyst

Mark Strouse -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Jed Dorsheimer -- Canaccord Genuity Group Inc -- Analyst

Jeff Hammond -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Pearce Hammond -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Maheep Mandloi -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

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