Pfizer (PFE) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Pfizer (PFE 0.55%)
Q3 2023 Earnings Call
Oct 31, 2023, 10:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, chief investor relations officer and senior vice president. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Francesca DeMartino -- Senior Vice President, Chief Investor Relations Officer

Good morning, and welcome to Pfizer's earnings call. I'm Francesco DeMartino, chief investor relations officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us. This call is being made available via audio webcast at pfizer.com.

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the third quarter of 2023. Our earnings materials can be accessed on the IR website at investors.pfizer.com. I'm joined today by Dr. Albert Bourla, our chairman and CEO; Dave Denton, our CFO; and Dr.

Mikael Dolsten, president, Pfizer research and development. Joining for the Q&A session, we will also have Angela Hwang, chief commercial officer and president, global pharmaceuticals business; Aamir Malik, our chief business innovation officer; Dr. Chris Boshoff, our chief oncology research and development officer; and Doug Lankler, our general counsel. Before we get started, I want to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements.

I encourage you to read the disclaimer on Slide 3. Additional information regarding these statements and our non-GAAP financial measures is available in our earnings release and in our SEC Forms 10-K and 10-Q under Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Information and Factors That May Affect Future Results. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties, speak only as of the call's original date, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements. With that, I will turn the call over to Albert.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Francesca. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Pfizer continues to have a far-reaching and positive impact on human health. Through the first nine months of the year, more than 457 million patients around the world were treated with our medicine and vaccines.

Compared with the first nine months of 2022, we have reached more patients in several key therapeutic areas, including oncology, cardiovascular disease, and anti-infectives. Patients will always be our North Star, and this figure serves as a testament to our leadership in innovation and our commitment to understanding and serving patients' needs. During the third quarter, we were encouraged by the continued strong performance of Pfizer's non-COVID products with revenue from these products growing 10% operationally compared with the year-ago quarter. We saw significant contributions from new launches and the robust year-over-year growth for several key in-line brands.

Our recently launched respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, vaccine is called Abrysvo contributed $375 million in U.S. revenue. With the recent approval of the maternal indication, Pfizer is the only company with an RSV vaccine approved for preventing RSV in older adults and in infants via maternal immunization. We believe Abrysvo will be a significant and growing contributor to revenue as many customers have indicated to us that protecting both populations with one vaccine is desirable and a competitive advantage for Abrysvo.

In the U.S. alone, there are approximately 80 million adults over age 60 who are eligible for RSV vaccination, and an estimated 1.5 million pregnant women are eligible for maternal immunization with our RSV vaccine between September 23 and January 24. Nurtec, Vydura, and Oxbryta, which were acquired in the fourth quarter of 2022, contributed to $233 million and $85 million in global revenues, respectively. For Nurtec, in the U.S., oral CGRPs represent about 17% of the migraine market, and the unmet need is high.

We believe oral CGRPs can ultimately be the first-line therapy for migraine and could eventually account for as much as 40% of the overall migraine market. Primary care is a clear source of potential growth in the migraine marketplace. Year to date, primary care healthcare providers wrote more than 6.1 million prescriptions for triptans compared with approximately 1 million for oral CGRPs, which highlights a significant potential opportunity for growth. Regarding Oxbryta, there is significant burden of illness and unmet need for patients suffering from sickle cell disease.

An estimated 12 million people around the world have SCD, sickle cell disease, with the highest prevalence in countries with the lowest resources. While in the U.S., 95% of children survive to adulthood, 99% of children in other regions will die before they reach their fifth birthday, many without even being -- ever being diagnosed. Our Vyndaqel family of products, including Vyndaqel, Vyndamax, and Vynmac, recorded 47% operational growth globally compared with the third quarter of 2022. This growth was driven largely by continued strong uptake of the transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy indication, primarily in the U.S.

and developed Europe. We estimate there are between 120,000 and 150,000 people suffering from ATTR cardiomyopathy with the majority still not yet diagnosed. The largest unmet need continues to be the lack of general understanding and ability to diagnose this deadly disease, which is why we are focused on educational activities to expedite diagnosis and get appropriate patients on to treatment with the product as the proven standard of care. Such efforts significantly contributed to this quarter's revenue increase in the U.S.

And our Prevnar family of products, Prevnar 13 and 20, saw global revenue rise 15% operationally compared with the year-ago quarter. This increase was driven primarily by strong patient demand for Prevnar 20 Adult in the U.S., the U.S. approval of Prevnar 20 Pediatric and associated stocking, and growth of Prevnar 13 Pediatric in certain emerging markets. These were partially offset by anticipated lower market share in the U.S.

for Prevnar Pediatric due to competitive entry. Of note, Prevnar 20 Adult remains the category-leading pneumococcal vaccine for adults in the U.S. with a 95% market share in the third quarter. Year to date, revenues for our non-COVID products have grown 7% operationally, and we remain on track to deliver 6% to 8% operational revenue growth for these products for the full year.

We continue to progress toward our goal of executing an unprecedented number of launches of new products or indications. Recent milestones include U.S. and EU approvals and the launch of Abrysvo in pregnant individuals; U.S. approval and the launch of Elrexfio in relapsed refractory multiple myeloma; U.S.

approval of our Braftovi and Mektovi combination in BRAF-mutated metastatic non-small cell lung cancer; U.S. approval of Velsipity for moderate to severe ulcerative colitis; EC approval of Litfulo for severe alopecia areata; and U.S. approval of Penbraya, the first and only pentavalent vaccine that provides coverage against the five most common serogroups causing meningococcal disease in adolescents and young adults 10 through 25 years of age. To date, we have now executed 13 of the 19 originally identified potential launches with four other products approved and preparations being made for their launch.

In fact, five of the six remaining potential launches have been largely derisked from a technical perspective. The only one remaining would be our mRNA flu candidate. Given our recent positive results from our next-generation mRNA flu/COVID combination candidate and pending results for our 65-and-older first-generation Phase 3 stand-alone mRNA flu study, timing of our stand-alone mRNA flu is now expected after 2024. If successful, our next-generation mRNA flu/COVID combination candidate is expected to market in 2025.

Mikael will share more about these programs shortly. We remain excited about our proposed acquisition of Seagen and the dramatic impact we think this combination can have on human health. One in three people will be diagnosed with cancer in their lifetime, so conquering cancer would have an almost unimaginable impact on humanity. We recently gained unconditional antitrust clearance from the EC, and we continue to expect the transaction to close in the late 2023 or early 2024, subject to customary closing conditions, including clearance by the U.S.

FTC. We have raised $31 billion in acquisition financing so far and continue to expect incremental 2030 risk-adjusted revenues in excess of $10 billion and expected cost efficiencies of $1 billion to be realized by the end of year 3 post closing without impacting R&D programs. With that, I turn it over to Dave. And after Dave, Mikael will provide an update on our R&D pipeline.

So Dave?

Dave Denton -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Albert, and good morning. Before I review this quarter's results, I will address a couple of topics that have been top of mind with investors since our announcement on October 13. These topics relate to our future U.S. government Paxlovid revenue forecasts, as well as our multiyear cost realignment program.

With respect to revenue recognition associated with the amended agreement, the U.S. government is expected to return an estimated 7.9 million EUA-labeled treatment courses, and in return, will receive a volume-based credit at an approximate value of $4.2 billion at the end of 2023 for future treatment courses. Pfizer will also provide an additional 1 million treatment courses into the U.S. strategic national stockpile.

As a result of all of that, Pfizer has an obligation to deliver an estimated 8.9 million treatment courses for which we will record an approximately $4.2 billion of revenue beginning in 2024 as we deliver treatment courses. It is important to note that there is no cash compensation for the estimated 8.9 million treatment courses delivered. Regarding our cost realignment program, I want to reiterate that we expect to achieve at least $3.5 billion of net cost savings by the end of 2024 versus the midpoint of our August 1, 2023, SI&A and R&D guidance. We expect $1 billion of targeted savings in 2023 and expect an additional savings of at least $2.5 billion in 2024.

In a moment, when I review the components of our full-year 2023 guidance, you will see that we have lowered the midpoints of both our SI&A and R&D guidance ranges by $500 million, respectively. Now turning to the quarter. Our Q3 results, both top and bottom line, were significantly and negatively impacted by our COVID products. Revenues declined 41% operationally, the result of the decrease in both Paxlovid and Comirnaty sales, while adjusted diluted loss per share was also significantly impacted by $5.6 billion of noncash inventory write-offs of COVID-related inventories.

I want to emphasize, as Albert stated previously, that the operational revenue growth of our products in Q3, excluding both Paxlovid and Comirnaty, were strong at 10%. Contributing to this strong performance was our newly approved RSV vaccine and the families of products associated with both Prevnar and Vyndaqel. Additionally, our recently acquired products, Nurtec and Oxbryta, also contributed to this strong performance. Our reported diluted loss per share of $0.42 and adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.17 in the quarter are primarily the result of the decline in Paxlovid and Comirnaty sales and the noncash charge related to write-offs of COVID-related inventories.

The inventory write-off of $4.7 billion for Paxlovid and $900 million for Comirnaty negatively affected adjusted loss per share by $0.84. Foreign exchange movements had a de minimis unfavorable impact on third quarter revenues and increased adjusted diluted loss per share by $0.04 or 2% compared to LY. Now let me briefly touch on our full-year guidance. Given we updated our full-year revenue and EPS guidance on October 13, I am just going to hit a few of the highlights.

Total company full-year 2023 revenues are expected to be in the range of $58 billion to $61billion versus the previous range of $67 billion to $70 billion. Importantly, we continue to expect 6% to 8% full-year operational revenue growth for non-COVID products year over year. And as anticipated, the majority of this growth is occurring in the second half of the year, given the timing of new products and indicated launches. I want to remind you that beginning in Q4, we will overlap the acquisitions of both Biohaven and GBT which were completed on October of 2022.

Adjusted cost of sales as a percentage of revenue is expected to be in the range of 41% to 43%, primarily the result of the $5.6 billion noncash charge related to inventory write-offs for our COVID products. Adjusted SI&A expenses are expected to be in a range of $13.3 billion to $14.3 billion and adjusted R&D expenses to be within a range of $11.9 billion to $12.9 billion. The midpoints of both ranges are now $500 million lower than our original guidance. As a result of all these, the company now expects full-year adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $1.45 to $1.65 per share versus the original guidance range of $3.25 to $3.45.

All additional components of our guidance are included in our press release that was issued earlier today. As discussed in prior quarters, our capital allocation strategy is based on three core pillars. First is reinvesting in our business. Second is growing our dividends over time, and third is making value-enhancing share repurchases.

In the first nine months of 2023, we invested $7.9 billion in internal R&D, returned $6.9 billion to shareholders via our quarterly dividend, and allocated approximately $43 billion toward the proposed Seagen acquisition. Lastly, in addition to completing a $31 billion unsecured debt offering in Q2 of this year, we are ready to execute the remaining short-term financing to complete the proposed Seagen acquisition upon fulfillment of the required closing conditions. We expect to delever our capital structure following the completion of this transaction. And as we delever, we anticipate returning to a more balanced capital allocation strategy, inclusive of share repurchases.

In closing, I want to reiterate that our product portfolio remains very strong. We continue to be encouraged by the momentum of our non-COVID products in Q3 and are committed to the successful execution of our new product and indication launches. We expect that the cost realignment program will improve our operating margins, enhancing long-term shareholder value. And with that, let me turn it over to Mikael.

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Thank you, Dave. Today, I will share important updates from our robust respiratory vaccine portfolio. Our respiratory vaccines are built upon three cutting-edge platforms that enable us to bring the right science to the right pathogen. These include our mRNA platform in partnership with BioNTech, targeting highly variant viruses; our subunit platform targeting viruses that remain relatively consistent season to season; and our conjugate vaccine platform designed to help prevent bacterial infections.

We have achieved FDA approvals of vaccines derived from each platform within the last year and aim to further expand our leadership with additional vaccine candidates in development. Today, I will provide information on our stand-alone flu vaccine candidate, flu-COVID combination vaccine candidates, and next-gen pneumococcal vaccine candidate. We are pleased to announce that we achieved both primary end points in the 18- to 64-year-old cohort of our ongoing Phase 3 flu trial. In the trial, our first-gen mRNA flu vaccine candidate demonstrated noninferiority and superiority to a licensed flu vaccine at the time of the primary analysis.

This represents the first and only demonstration of efficacy and superiority for an mRNA-based flu vaccine candidate. In this age cohort, efficacy was maintained through the trial's end-of-season analysis with our candidate remaining noninferior to the licensed comparator. Safety was similar to the standard flu vaccine. The primary and end-of-season efficacy analyses considered both influenza A and B cases collectively.

The vast majority of cases recorded in our trial and during the 2022/'23 flu season overall were flu A cases. Immunogenicity data showed robust antibody responses against influenza A compared to licensed flu vaccine. Humoral responses against influenza B were lower than those achieved with the comparator. Recall that our stand-alone flu vaccine Phase 3 study also includes a 65-and-older cohort that we previously shared encouraging T cell data for all four strains from the Phase 2 study in this cohort.

Our belief is that the ability of the vaccine candidate to induce T cell responses may contribute to improved efficacy over current seasonal flu vaccines, particularly in those 65 and older. We expect a readout from this age group later this year. To address the lower B responses seen with our first-gen stand-alone flu candidate, Pfizer created next-generation reformulations. These were incorporated into our mRNA flu candidates, in combination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, which I will review now.

In positive Phase 1/2 top-line data announced last week, we observed that reformulation of the lead flu candidates resulted in improved immunogenicity against influenza B, allowing us to meet all criteria for advancement to Phase 3. In the trial, our lead candidate formulations induced robust immune responses with point estimates for Geometric Mean Titer ratios that were consistent with criteria applied to approved vaccines for all matched flu and SARS-CoV-2 strains. Notably, point estimates for Geometric Mean Titer ratios with selected candidate formulations were greater than one relative to the licensed comparator for all matched flu vaccine strains. The safety profiles of evaluated candidates were consistent with Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine.

Following these positive immunogenicity data, we plan to initiate a Phase 3 study in the coming months. Successfully developing a broad seasonal vaccine franchise anchored around a modFlu mRNA vaccine is a key priority as it may allow us to tap into the nearly 50% annual flu vaccination rate in the U.S. adults. We are taking a differentiated approach in pursuit of this goal, leveraging both mRNA and protein subunit technologies.

Our development program includes double- and triple-combination vaccines to potentially help protect against flu, COVID-19, and RSV. Now turning to Prevnar. I'll start by reminding you that this is the only PCV business with an FDA indication for pneumonia in adults. Providing protection specifically against pneumococcal pneumonia is critical.

It's the most common form of pneumococcal disease in adults, leading to 150,000 U.S. hospitalizations each year. The prevalence of nonbacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia is more than fifteenfold, greater than that of invasive pneumococcal disease in U.S. adults 50 and older.

Prevnar's pneumonia indication is supported by the CAPiTA trial, which was enabled by a pneumococcal vaccine-naive population and proprietary assay. These innovative characteristics make it challenging for others to conduct a similar study, given the high level of pneumococcal vaccine coverage that exists today. CAPiTA's innovative design and landmark results helped establish our leading and differentiated position in the PCV space. To solidify this position, we are committed to pursuing continued innovation.

Our goal is to potentially maximize valency and improve immunogenicity while maintaining coverage of the serotypes clinically demonstrated to protect against pneumonia. In line with this commitment, we have been developing a fourth-generation PCV candidate that builds on the Prevnar business' 20-plus years of innovation. Our next-generation technology leverages cutting-edge conjugation chemistry, carriers, and reformulations. Using these new proprietary vaccine technologies, we observed a several-fold improvement in select serotype immunogenicity in a monovalent Phase 1 study.

Based on these data, we are confident that when we move this technology into our multivalent fourth-gen candidate, we have the potential to achieve increased valency with improved serotype immunogenicity. We are now advancing our fourth-generation candidate into a first in-human trial, which is expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2023. Finally, I will leave you with our list of milestones and call out the recent approvals of Velsipity for ulcerative colitis and Penbraya, the first pentavalent meningococcal vaccine. Pfizer has delivered more than a dozen regulatory approvals this year alone.

I'll also note the recent launches of Abrysvo for maternal immunization and Elrexfio in multiple myeloma. Thank you. Let me turn it back to Francesca to start the Q&A session.

Francesca DeMartino -- Senior Vice President, Chief Investor Relations Officer

Thanks, Mikael. With that, let's start the Q&A session. We will answer as many questions as time permits, and IR will be available after the call to answer any follow-up questions. Operator, please assemble the queue.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

[Operator instructions] And our first question will come from Robyn Karnauskas with Truist Securities.

Robyn Karnauskas -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I think I have a big-picture question on your new launches, which is extremely important for your growth. Are you seeing any impact, given, I think, the vaccine fatigue that we've seen with COVID impacting RSV and pneumococcal vaccines? And how do you think about that impact as you think about 2023 and 2024? Do you think that will dissipate? Thanks.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you for your questions. First of all, I think it's good when you have a portfolio, and we have a quite strong portfolio because we have RSV. We have COVID, and we have pneumococcal in the respiratory front. But I think the biggest impact will be when and if we have combination products.

We think that the combination products will -- because of their convenience, because of -- the vaccines are preferred by various zero co-pay will increase basically the volumes and vaccination rates of all vaccines because of the convenience of one injection. And I think this is why you saw from Mikael all our efforts right now are in development in multiple combinations so that consumers and physicians will have a choice which ones to do administer always with the same convenience. I think we can go to the next question. Thank you very much, Robyn.

Operator

Our next question will come from Huynh Trung with UBS.

Trung Huynh -- UBS -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for the questions. I have one on flu and then just one on danu. So on flu, can you confirm the comparator in the 18 to 64 and also the 64 age groups was the low-dose flu vaccines? Is there a risk FDA is going to need data against high-dose flu vaccines? And from a commercial perspective, do you think you still need a high-dose flu data -- the comparator against high-dose flu data, given that's what's recommended by CDC in the older population? And then on danu, should we just -- just on the data that we expect before year end, what do you need to show in that in order to move it into Phase 3 trials? Is something similar to the Phase 2 we saw earlier this year enough to move it to Phase 3? Thanks very much.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. On the flu comparator, I can confirm that it is the low dose on the younger population because that's the only one that's around. So on the older operation, we are having studies now with the low dose, but we will do also with the higher dose, so we have both. On danu, that is tough to say.

We need to wait to see the data. There is -- clearly, when you are moving ahead with a program like that, you need to see the totality of the data, and we are working now or eventually to be able to have this data presented before year end. Let's move to the next question.

Operator

Our next question will come from Umer Raffat with Evercore.

Umer Raffat -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to continue on the oral obesity theme for a second. I noticed there is a new molecule, 522, that you moved into Phase 1.

And my question is, is the chemical structure and the chemical series akin to the danu and lotiglipron programs? And also, Albert, you mentioned you want to wait to see the danuglipron Phase 2 data, but I realize the trial has been wrapped up for a few weeks. Now have you not seen it yet? Thank you very much.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Mikael, would you like to take the question about the new molecule and the danu?

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Yeah. We are building a platform around the glip area and also obesity, in general, with multiple different mechanisms and compounds. We remain focused on the danuglipron readout, as Albert mentioned, as our main opportunity here for getting data to review for obesity, in fact, to diabetes. But the many indications where glip might play a role outside a typical metabolic.

So this one gives us just more option to explore and have interesting data, and you will see more new mechanisms also coming from Pfizer. We have a pretty strong effort here. Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. Let's go to the next call.

Operator

Next, we have Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.

Terence Flynn -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe two for me. I was just wondering on your RSV launch, how we should think about the potential for revaccination in 2024.

And then on your DMD gene therapy program, I think you've previously talked about having interim data by year end. Is that still the case? And does the recent competitor data make you more or less optimistic in your program? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. First of all, let me make a comment on the recent data that we saw about the DMD failures is very, very bad news for patients. We are really -- these are patient information that doesn't have solutions at all. There will be a [Inaudible] so I hope there will be a solution for them with the discussion of the FDA, although I can't comment.

Now on our DMD program, I will ask Mikael to comment on that. And then on the RSV, Angela. Mikael, why don't you start with DMD, and then Angela go to RSV.

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Yeah, this comment that we also always said when somewhat tailored study. We are very encouraged about getting to the readout. You are right. There is an opportunity for an interim analysis around year end with final analysis second half of next year.

And overall, I think our gene therapy for DMD have shown a very consistent effect across biomarkers and functional end points. And what has been differentiated so far is that when you look at the functional data we have reported, it has been given encouraging signals in both the younger and the slightly older boys, and that has not been seen with the other company you referred to. So in a way, I remain as earlier, very positive about looking forward to the readout and let the data tell you a story. But of course, this makes our gene therapy, in a way, the main game in town.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And then there was a question, Angela, on the RSV.

Angela Hwang -- President, Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals

Well, as you heard during the ACIP discussions, our recommendation for Abrysvo today is really one around clinical -- shared clinical decision-making. But we also were asked to bring additional data when they are ready. And so just to confirm that we will have additional data and vaccine effectiveness in broader populations, we will have safety data also in broader populations. We will also have immunogenicity data in younger populations.

All of this will be, I think, available in the next year when we plan to bring this back to the CDC. In addition to that, actually, I needed to mention that we'll also have second season efficacy data. So we'll be able to bring this totality of data together to determine whether the recommendations will change but also what the vaccination schedule will be. So that's to come in 2024.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Angela. Let's go to the next question, please.

Operator

Next, we have Steve Scala with TD Cowen.

Steve Scala -- TD Cowen -- Analyst

Thank you very much. As was just noted a couple of minutes ago, the danu data has reached its primary completion. It was a while ago. Albert, when you were asked, you stressed the words totality of the data, implying that you could have seen some part of the data.

Mikael, when you were asked, you talked about different indications. These are not confidence-building statements. So I'm curious what have you seen. And Mikael, you've said in the past, you are absolutely encouraged and confident in the profile of danu.

Are you still absolutely encouraged and confident? So that's the first question. Secondly, a competitor spoke to potentially COVID-derived decrease in diagnosis of inflammatory diseases, such as UC. And I'm wondering if you've seen any of that. Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Steve, I think you likely misunderstood my comments on the totality. It has nothing to do with any data that I have seen because I haven't, right? So the data have not been presented to -- I don't think that the study has been completed yet. So I will ask also Mikael to comment on that. But don't read, please, anything on the totality of the data.

What I meant it is that we are doing this. We are doing the release formulation from less which we make it once a day. There are multiple things, but we need to wait and see. We see how competitors are doing before deciding what we will do.

But the most important thing is to see what is the efficacy and safety of the study that we'll read out, so nothing to do -- to read in my comment on the totality of the data. So Mikael, do you want to add?

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Yeah, I can just echo what you said so well there, Albert. We and I remain very enthusiastic to look forward to see the data. We have not seen the final top-line report coming yet. So today.

the study is still ongoing but will be available before year end. Danuglipron has shown, as you know, some really interesting profile as a full agonist. And it's our main opportunity and effort for obesity and type 2 diabetes. We got earlier today a question about new molecules that come in, and that's when I mentioned that our additional indications to pursue for such new molecules, and we'll also have new mechanisms that are validated that's coming in, in oral version.

So it just punctates our big effort we have around both this class and obesity and other disorders.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

So in essence, he's still excited. Thank you very much, Mikael. Let's go to the next question, please/

Operator

Next, we have Louise Chen with Cantor.

Louise Chen -- Cantor Fitzgerald -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. So I wanted to ask you on the fourth-generation PCV, how much additional serotype coverage will you have? And then also, on Abrysvo, will that be available to pregnant women in the pharmacy? Or do they have to go to their OB/GYN. And then lastly, just on danuglipron again here, will you also have the modified release data before year end? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mikael, you will take the PCV question and the danu, but also, Angela, very quickly, Abrysvo.

Angela Hwang -- President, Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals

Yes. It's going to be available in pharmacists, in doctors' offices, in OB/GYN offices. I think we have a real stocking advantage here, Louise, because anyone just needs to stock one product for two indications for both populations. So I think the uptake is to come.

And certainly, the next few months, being that it's the winter, is when we begin to, we believe, will see some good uptake.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And then, Mikael?

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

On the PCV fourth generation, I hope you looked at today's data. And what you could see is that we are really the first company that has been able to put in place a whole set of new technology that can bring immune responses to a higher level than has been seen and that allow us to go with even more comprehensive coverage than the current 20. I'm not going to give your curiosity an answer how many serotypes. I can just tell you, it's considerably more than the 20.

On danu, we look upon danuglipron as a once-a-day QD molecule because of the reformulation technologies that we have put in place and already generated some clinical data on and are now concluding. So that's really how we look upon danuglipron. And we'll have final data on the best formulation option early next year. But as Albert said, we're enthusiastic to look forward to the efficacy data later this year, so very exciting time.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much, Mikael. Let's go to the next question.

Operator

Next, we have David Risinger with Leerink Partners.

David Risinger -- Leerink Partners -- Analyst

Yes. Thanks very much. So I have another question on danuglipron since it appears to be the company's No. 1 pipeline candidate based upon your forecasts.

So regarding the Phase 2b results that are expected soon, how should we expect Pfizer to share those results? And then with regard to the once daily formulation that you just mentioned, Mikael, will that be ready for the Phase 3 start, assuming that the company moves to start Phase 3 shortly after the Phase 2b results are generated? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I mean, the first question, given the importance of the market, we will start with a press release, maybe a color or not-- but I don't --but with a press release. We'll make them publicly available. Now, Mikael, do you want to take the second part of the question update?

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Yeah. I can first echo what Albert and I said. We look forward with enthusiasm to get the danuglipron obesity data later this year. And of course, as Albert said, pending totality of -- reviewing everything we have, we have made a lot of progress and been able to accelerate with the QD demo.

Now we're waiting for some more clinical data early next year, but I think it's within our reach if we decide to do to start the pivotal study next year to do it with a once-a-day molecule.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much, Mikael. Let's go to the next question.

Operator

Next, we have Chris Schott with J.P. Morgan.

Chris Schott -- JPMorgan Chase and Company -- Analyst

Great. Thanks so much. Just two for me here. First, can you just comment a little bit more on what we're seeing with Nurtec and the ramp relative to your expectations? And maybe just as part of that, just any color on pricing we're seeing within the market today and how we should think about that going forward.

And then my second question was on 2024. I know you're not giving guidance today. But as you look at where consensus has kind of shaken out post the COVID and cost restructuring updates, I think the earnings are in kind of the low $3 range at this point. I guess just are there any directional kind of pushes or pulls in the numbers that you feel The Street isn't capturing properly and should be kind of thinking about before we get your kind of formal guidance as we look to early next year? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. David, he's asking about '24 guidance, but you are not going to tell us.

Dave Denton -- Chief Financial Officer

Right. So obviously, it's a little over to 2024. I would just say that, clearly, we had a clearing event as it relates to our COVID expectations for this year, so a lot of that risk is behind us as we think about the balance of this year. I do expect that the balance of this year will be very informative, particularly in the U.S., as we think about utilization trends, both for vaccination rates, and importantly, Paxlovid here in the U.S.

that will allow us to have a better clarity as we cycle into 2024 of the utilization around those specific products, which will still be meaningful to us at an enterprise level. Clearly, when we get to providing guidance, we'll give you a lot of information beneath that, so you can get a good sense of our -- importantly, our non-COVID products, which continue to trend very favorably and very well. And we can layer on, I'll say, the optionality associated with our COVID franchise as we cycle into next year. So obviously, a lot more to come.

We're looking forward to sharing those very specific details after the first of the year.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, David. And then, Angela, about the Nurtec launch -- not the launch, about the Nurtec performance of the marketplace, including the price.

Angela Hwang -- President, Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals

Yes. So thanks for the question, Chris, because it's a great opportunity for us to share that we are seeing Nurtec perform just as we expected, in fact, with some really strong performance indicators that I'd like to share with you. First of all, from a TRx perspective, we grew 28% compared to last year this time. And sequentially, we grew 6% versus last quarter.

In fact, on October 20, we saw the highest week of TRxs and NRxs to date. That growth is also seen in the number of prescribers. Just this quarter alone, we had 73,000 prescribers write Nurtec. And we are now moving at a clip of about 23,000 writers a week, which is 30% more than Ubrelvy and double that of Qulipta.

Another good place to look is also in new-to-brand starts, right, NBRxs. And when you look at that, NBRx growth for Nurtec is higher than Ubrelvy and Qulipta in all the deciles of physicians but particularly in the decile eight to 10s, which, as you know, is where the highest prescribers are or who are the highest prescribers. And then when you look at pill count, we see something interesting there, too. We have been very intensely or intently driving our pill pack toward the larger co-pack size, which is the 16-pack because of our prevention indication.

And so when you look at the totality of all the pills or the total volume of pills, we have a leading market share there, more than 50%. And so I think when you look at all these indicators, at least on the way that we're looking at it, it's a very positive story. It's exactly how we see it. The expansion into primary care, as you heard in Albert's comments, is what it is that we're after.

And today, only 17% of the entire market is oral cGRPs, which tells you that most of the market is still an opportunity for us and represents growth that we're really, really looking forward to. And I think that we put the right investments in the right places to generate this growth in the future. From a pricing perspective, obviously, this is -- it's a product that is rebated. And so I think the way to think about it is that from a patient perspective, which is where we really put a lot of focus, we want to make sure that our patients are able to get these scripts, are able to get access for Nurtec, especially as you consider that we're trying to mobilize people away from topiramate and away from triptans onto a cGRP.

So the gross-to-net effects here are significant, and you see that quarter over quarter because we are making sure that we are able to provide access to patients who deserve and are eligible for Nurtec.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. Next question, please.

Operator

Next, we have Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.

Mohit Bansal -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Great. Thank you for taking my question. And I have a question regarding your S1P etrasimod. Would love to get your thoughts on the label.

It seems like -- I mean, you could avoid a lot of cardiac monitoring. But at the same time, there's a new requirement of like eye exam as well as skin exam. How do you think about uptake, considering these examinations before the start of the treatment, given that these doctors are much used to it?

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

All right. Mikael, quite medical questions. Would you like to answer it, please?

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

I'm happy to start on it. I think we have a very robust label for etrasimod. It's the only S1P in this drug class for ulcerative colitis that have a simple flat dosing and immediate start without any prior need for, let's say, cardiac rhythms exams like the other drug in this class, all less from key have various eye exams to monitor. And I think our label similarly has a recommendation to do that.

So it's really nothing new. And our efficacy data, and you see, has been very favorable. So we are very optimistic that this can be a true best-in-class for ulcerative colitis.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Angela, do you want to add?

Angela Hwang -- President, Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals

Sure. I was just going to add to that that if you -- I mean, competitively, we believe that we have an excellent efficacy and PD profile. We don't have a need to titrate up, as Mikael said, but also as the assessments of standards versus our competitors at the initiation of therapy. So I think that this is a level-playing field that we're in.

Certainly, patient support is an area of focus for us, right, to ensure that patients are getting the estimates that they need. But we feel that we're -- this is pretty standard practice, and we'll be able to launch this product as planned.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much, Angela. Next question, please.

Operator

Next, we have Geoff Meacham with Bank of America.

Geoff Meacham -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Just have a couple of quick ones. First, I know Seagen obviously hasn't closed yet, but does all the emphasis on ADCs from ESMO, does it affect how you guys prioritize the pipeline or maybe investments you could make today commercially? And the second question on danu.

Mikael, I know a lot has been asked on the upcoming data. But from a commercial perspective, like where do you see the bigger opportunities for differentiation and metabolic? Is that really just oral administration in obesity? Or do you guys look more aggressively at related indications, like cardio, renal, etc.? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Chris, do you want to take the question about Seagen and their pipeline?

Chris Boshoff -- Chief Oncology Research and Development Officer

Thank you very much. Obviously, we remain very confident that we will close Seagen toward the end of this year, beginning next year. I should point it out there's a significant interest now in ADCs because of the potential that they could replace most of the chemotherapeutics in the future for most cancer types. Seagen, obviously, has a significant track record with fourth current approved ADCs from their laboratories.

And as you've seen, three potential registration phase trials just read out and passed out to to Kaiser [Inaudible]. They recently started two Phase 3 studies, one with tisotumab vedotin with -- in combination with pembrolizumab in advanced metastatic HER2-positive or HER2 bladder cancer. This is a program that we're very excited about. Already, tisotumab received previously breakthrough therapy designation in the U.S.

And they're also just about to start another Phase 3 program in non-small cell lung cancer with B6A, integrin beta-6 antibody. So we remain very confident in their portfolio and the depth of expertise they're bringing to the development and discovery of ADCs.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. And then, Mikael?

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Yeah.I think you asked about how could a new oral glip in obesity be positioned for maximum attractiveness and using danu as one example, pending, of course, our excitement to see the data. Well, clearly, as obesity and type 2 diabetes with overweight are moving from being treated from endocrinologists and metabolic physicians increasingly out of primary care, particularly with the impressive effects of these drug players on obesity in body weight, all our agents, in general, are preferred. So I think once-a-day drug such as a new reformulated potential danuglipron would have an interesting role there. I think there is also a growing discussion among opinion leaders in the field that patients regain weight when they stopped injectables.

And in general, they are only available for maybe a year. So an oral agent that could be taken for a longer period could also play a really interesting role to maintain body weight at the low level. And finally, you're absolutely right. The new data for this drug class suggests that patients could benefit from both cardiac and renal detection.

And oral agents allow you to build in combination with drugs that are already used in this population, such as the 52 to protect the heart, etc. So I think that's why there is such a big interest in drugs in this class. So thank you for the question.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Next question, please.

Operator

Next, we have Tim Anderson with Wolfe Research.

Tim Anderson -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Thank you. I have a couple of questions. On danuglipron, the early data set showed a QTC signal. Do you think that was a red herring that won't show up in later data? To me, when I just think about drug classes and seeing QTC signals, it seems like it often persists in later data sets.

And then second question on mRNA flu. You mentioned that safety is the same as license vaccines. Does that mean tolerability was as well? I usually think of safety and tolerability as technically being different from each other. Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Very good. Thank you very much for the question. Mikael, both questions for you, QTC for danu and then tolerability and safety.

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Yeah. I mean we have, I think, more than 1,400 patients on danuglipron, and it's a very safe drug, and we look forward to the readout and efficacy, as we have said, before year end. So that's very straightforward. MRNA flu, you had a very good comment.

Particularly in initial studies, tolerability is really what we focus on. And tolerability was similar to standard of care available vaccines or the other mRNA vaccines experience from Pfizer, and we haven't really had any concerns of safety. So on both tolerability and safety, the statement stands that it looks like previous versions of our vaccines.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Mikael. And let's go to the next question, please.

Operator

Next, we have Chris Shibutani with Goldman Sachs.

Chris Shibutani -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Thank you. Two questions, if I may. On the cost-savings program, you've been outlining what the plan is for 2024. But if we look at the pattern of the spending for R&D and SI&A in the quarter you just reported, I would observe that the magnitude of reduction in the R&D spend was greater than expected relative to SI&A.

How should we be interpreting those numbers or anything to read across in terms of the relative amount of cost reductions coming from SI&A versus R&D on the forward? And then a question on Abrysvo. First quarter sales were solid. Can you just elaborate how much may have been attributable to, for instance, inventory stocking versus actual demand? If we look at prescription data, it looks like from the retail setting, there's about 30% market share. Is this similar to what you're observing in the broader market? And how is this comparing with your expectation? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Let me ask David to answer the question about our R&D and the SI&A expenses, and then Angela will take Abrysvo.

Dave Denton -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Hey, Chris, on the cost program, I would not read into the allocation of savings in '23 as it relates to '24. Obviously, we have a fairly robust program up and running today. We're working aggressively on those programs and beginning to implement those programs.

As we cycle into 2024, we'll give you and the market some specific color on how to think about those cost savings as we wrap into next year.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Angela?

Angela Hwang -- President, Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals

Sure. So we are really pleased with our performance on Abrysvo, and it has exceeded our expectations. You first asked whether this is all about stocking, and I can say that it isn't. Of course, there were stocking effects in the beginning because this was a new vaccine, but we're also closely tracking vaccination rates and uptake.

And what you see is that there is very fast uptake. We were -- that really benefited from the fact that this was approved and in market prior to the vaccination season actually happening, so was able to write off of the coattails of flu vaccinations, which you know are very high, right, September, October. We have about a 70% co-administration rate. So the performance we're seeing on Abrysvo is truly driven by vaccinations.

To your comment about market share, yes, we are seeing a similar market share to what you have just said. That is because, right now, the retail setting is driving a lot of the vaccinations. But don't forget, that, that's not where all vaccinations are taking place. We also have non-retail settings, such as health systems, doctors' offices.

Those are also being engaged. And those particular setting, Pfizer actually has a leading preference. They are smaller in proportion but still. So I think we have to look at all channels of the market.

Finally, I think that, just from a momentum perspective, we expect things to continue. The vaccinations really are happening throughout this time now. October, November, December are big vaccination months. From where we are right now, RSV is only 5% of the entire vaccination rate of the eligible population.

So I think that the conclusion is we're very early in the innings of this launch. We're doing better than we thought. But that where we are going to be, I think, is a place where there's tremendous opportunity for driving uptake in all the results, but also maternal, which, as you know, we just got the approval for.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Next question, please.

Operator

Next, we have Carter Gould with Barclays.

Carter Gould -- Barclays -- Analyst

Great. Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. Maybe go back to oral danu.

When we look at the Phase 2 data, what should our expectation be around communicating plans for Phase 3, which I guess is just a quicker way of saying what's a reasonable expectation for how quickly you could turn around the Phase 2 and start a Phase 3 and how much work Pfizer has already done on that front? And then maybe just coming out of ESMO, on the back of the EV-302 data and the response, would Pfizer say that reaffirms their expectations or represents upside to their expectations when the deal was originally announced? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. On the danu, let me take that, so I can spare a little bit of Mikael's time. We are expecting the data to show up before the end of the year. And of course, it's an important event.

So we will have to make it publicly known when we know the date. And of course, when we are ready with our Phase 3, and we hope that the data are good so that we can move in Phase 3, and I hope that we are going to do it in an expedited manner because speed is of essence in this battle between competing medicines, but we will announce our plans for Phase 3. I know the interest is very high right now, but I won't be very prudent in not saying things without the data. The data or the click of the data, we haven't seen it again.

Now, let me move to Chris so that he can discuss about the ESMO.

Chris Boshoff -- Chief Oncology Research and Development Officer

Yes. Thank you for raising 301. These are truly monumental data for the field of bladder cancer and urothelial cancer. And as you pointed out, with overall survival and median -- progression-free survival nearly doubled, moving median overall survival for this population now toward -- nearly toward three years.

We expect the final data to be above longer than 31.5 months. So this just reaffirmed our belief that antibody-drug conjugates could become a standard of care across the treatment paradigm for many, many different tumor types.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. Next question, please.

Operator

Next, we have Akash Tewari with Jefferies.

Ivy Wang -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Good morning. This is Ivy on for Akash. Thanks for taking our questions. Our question is also on danuglipron.

So starting once-daily modified-release version, is there any possibility to do a bridging study for QD formulation? And also for danu, I think as we've heard a lot of times on the call, that the trial is marked as completed in October, I know you haven't seen the top-line data. So at this point, are we are waiting for data from this lower four-week titration cohort? Also, would it be fair to say that you will have discontinued the program already if there were any clinically significant issues withstanding? Thanks.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mikael?

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Yeah. On the once-a-day reformulated danu, we have initially tested a standard swellable core technology and could show that it worked very well with danu. And now to be able also to incorporate a more sophisticated technology, we worked on a matrix technology, and all data suggest it's going to be a really intriguing alternative because, as you know, in diabetes, for all our drugs and obesity, you will, over time, end up with incorporating different drugs to prevent different downstream effects. And that's the beautiful of having this type of novel technology that you have a potential in the future to go to fix those combinations.

And we are really masters in developing sophisticated formulations, and we will have this available in 2024. And there was a second part, I think, or no? There was a second part at the time or maybe --

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Let's move then to the next question, please. Thank you, Akash, for your question.

Operator

Next, we have Kerry Holford with Berenberg.

Kerry Holford -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thank you. Two questions on vaccines for me, please. Firstly, on RSV, in August, GSK filed a lawsuit against Pfizer alleging patent infringement. So I wonder if you could just talk to the next steps here, perhaps a time line that you anticipate for this.

And should we think that this could ultimately result in some form of royalty payments from Pfizer to GSK? And then on Penbraya, how does the recent recommendation sit against your expectations for the sales ramp and peak potential for this vaccine? If the vaccine is effectively only used for dose two or three, does that significantly reduce the commercial opportunity you had anticipated for the vaccine? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Doug, can we please answer the question about this legal situation with GSK?

Doug Lankler -- General Counsel

Yes. So it's very, very early stages with respect to the RSV litigation. We have patents. We feel strongly about our own intellectual property, and it's certainly too early to say whether one party or the other will be required to pay any royalties or otherwise, very early stages in that regard.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. And, Angela, about the Penbraya, how do you feel about it?

Angela Hwang -- President, Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals

Sure. We continue to feel confident about the peak sales. The reason is that, right now, we have the first set of recommendations, but ACIP has also told us that we will have the opportunity again to come back next year when we have additional data, which is when we'll have the opportunity to look at the schedule for how the quads and Vs are being -- the schedule that they're being delivered today. And we'll have an opportunity again to take a look at the benefit of Penbraya in this population.

So I think -- I feel like it's great that we have an opportunity to get out now and to begin vaccinating our teenagers. We will have a second bite at the apple, which will allow us to achieve our peak sales.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Next question, please.

Operator

Next, we have Andrew Baum with Citi.

Andrew Baum -- Citi -- Analyst

Thank you. Couple of questions. Would you comment on your stake in RVT-3101, TL1, pending the approval of the licensing of the asset to Roche? Would you hang on to it? Or is that subject to divestment? And then second question for Chris. Just looking at the recent EV-302 data and with -- you seem to have the Seagen portfolio, when you think about the combination of ADCs with pembro or with a PD-1, do you believe the efficacy that you're seeing is associated with that hedging? Or do you think it's true synergy through immunology mechanism or increased cell death? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Aamir, you want to speak a little bit about the Roche acquisition of the TL1?

Aamir Malik -- Chief Business and Innovation Officer

Yes. So thanks for the question, Andrew. I think we're very pleased with the outcome of the TL1A program. When we created Telavant, we did this as an R&D prioritization decision.

Just as a reminder, this is a Phase 2 program that required significant Phase 3 investment. And so we held on to a 25% stake. We also had rights to royalties on U.S. sales, as well as the full ex U.S.

and ex Japan rights. And we did that all without any R&D spend. So Roche's proposed acquisition of Televant will give us access to about $1.75 billion of pre-tax cash, which is the translation of our stake, and we still retain all the other rights. So we're looking forward to having Roche as a partner.

We're looking forward to the investments that they're going to make in advancing the clinical stage programs on TL1A and benefiting from the outcome of those.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And, Chris, about the synergies.

Chris Boshoff -- Chief Oncology Research and Development Officer

Yes, Thanks, Andrew. That's a very good question. As you know, Seagen pioneered the MMAE auristatin base payloads, and we see this potential synergy in combination with PD-1 with Adcetris, with Tefdac, and recently, as you've seen, with [Inaudible]. Although Seagen does have the next generation of ADCs for TL1s that will enter the clinic this year next year, we don't know yet.

If the TL1s are going to show similar types of immunogenicity as what appears to happen with the MMAE auristatin base payloads. So I think we're very confident that Seagen has both TL1 as well as auristatin base payloads, in case TL1s, we do not what appears to be, you're correct, type of cell deaths.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much, Chris. And let's go to the last question, please.

Operator

Our last question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.

Evan Seigerman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Thank you so much for taking my questions. So I have one on danu and then a bigger-picture one. So point of clarification on danuglipron, Mikael, is the ultimate goal to develop the fixed-dose combination with, say, an SGLT2 or other anti-diabetes drugs, you kind of mentioned that in your commentary.

And taking a big step back, how should we think about how you risk adjusted your long-term revenue guidance? And do you plan on updating these figures, so you have clinical or regulatory successes or failures, for example, with the approval of etrasimod? Thank you.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mikael, can you please take the question?

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Yeah. I mean, the near-term goal is really look at the data, we've said both Albert and myself. And pending review, of course, that's an option with a once-a-day downward to move forward in obesity in diabetes. I think we have commented that the upside with oral drugs, our man in this sector, and that's why it has been such a big interest.

And that includes fixed-dose combination, which aren't available with injectable. But we will keep it simple and clear. We'll review the data and take a decision about potential in obesity in diabetes once-a-day downward. That's the near term.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. And also, about your question, if we are going to change the $20 billion or the $25 billion that we have declared. First of all, the $25 billion that we are going to acquire according to our estimates, we have acquired, pending Seagen acquisition, $20 billion so far. If you see the analyst expectation for these acquisitions at the end of 2030 are very, very close to what we have right now.

And I think this is trending very much. When you see internal -- the launches that we are having from our internal pipeline, which we declared $20 billion, there is a gap between what we believe and what the analysts believe. And this is where we are focusing our attention right now. It's very early with the launches.

Some of them are doing better than what we thought. Some of them are doing worse than what we thought. And if we realize that the totality of $20 billion is not anymore what we think will be, of course, we will update.

Dave Denton -- Chief Financial Officer

But I think what is important to that is if you look at our business, our core business is performing nicely. We continue to make traction. We have obviously a lot of launches that we've completed and still several ahead of us. We're excited about what Seagen could potentially bring to the company as we think about our focus now in oncology.

And then importantly, I think we've rebaselined, if you will, the COVID franchise. As we think about utilization in the back half this year and cycle into next year, we will then take a step back and look at what would be prudent as we think about the revenue in totality of this company as we cycle into '24 and beyond. So I think look forward to, as we begin going into 2024, those expectations are laying those out specifically.

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

OK. Thank you very much. So thank you. I would like us to say that you walk away from today's call with just one take away, it should be that I think Pfizer the future mix price.

We have rebased our COVID expectations, and now I think it's very easy for everyone to be able to model what I think will be stable COVID revenues going forward. And with the recent -- particularly with the recent amended Paxlovid supply agreement. And of course, we are having a very strong performance of our line and new products, the portfolio, excluding COVID, it's 10% growth this quarter, and that position us to be able to have growing things going forward. So I will now bring this call to an end.

Thank you for joining us, and have a great rest of your day.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 0 minutes

Call participants:

Francesca DeMartino -- Senior Vice President, Chief Investor Relations Officer

Albert Bourla -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Dave Denton -- Chief Financial Officer

Mikael Dolsten -- President of Worldwide Research and Development and Medical

Robyn Karnauskas -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Trung Huynh -- UBS -- Analyst

Umer Raffat -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Terence Flynn -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Angela Hwang -- President, Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals

Steve Scala -- TD Cowen -- Analyst

Louise Chen -- Cantor Fitzgerald -- Analyst

David Risinger -- Leerink Partners -- Analyst

Chris Schott -- JPMorgan Chase and Company -- Analyst

Mohit Bansal -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Geoff Meacham -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Chris Boshoff -- Chief Oncology Research and Development Officer

Tim Anderson -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Chris Shibutani -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Carter Gould -- Barclays -- Analyst

Ivy Wang -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Kerry Holford -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Doug Lankler -- General Counsel

Andrew Baum -- Citi -- Analyst

Aamir Malik -- Chief Business and Innovation Officer

Evan Seigerman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

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