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DATE

  • Wednesday, July 16, 2025, at 5 p.m. EDT

CALL PARTICIPANTS

  • President and Chief Executive Officer — William Oplinger
  • Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — Molly Beerman

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RISKS

  • The company reduced its annual aluminum shipment outlook to 2.5–2.6 million metric tons for 2025 following operational disruption at the San Ciprián smelter caused by a nationwide power outage.
  • Section 232 tariff costs for aluminum imported from Canadian smelters increased to $95 million in Q2 2025, with expected Q3 2025 costs of $205 million–$215 million, resulting in margin compression and ongoing volatility.
  • "At recent market prices, the Spanish operations are challenged," according to Mollie Beerman, with the San Ciprián refinery moving "into a loss position for the rest of the year" and facing continued profitability struggles into 2026.
  • Approval timelines for new mine regions in Western Australia have been delayed beyond the original Q1 2026 target, extending entry into new mining areas until at least 2028.

TAKEAWAYS

  • Revenue: $3 billion in revenue for Q2 2025. Revenue declined 10% sequentially. This was driven by lower alumina prices, partially offset by increased alumina shipments and improved Aluminum segment shipment volume.
  • Net Income: $164 million in net income attributable to Alcoa for Q2 2025 (GAAP), compared to $548 million in the prior quarter, Earnings per common share were $0.62 (GAAP).
  • Adjusted Net Income: $103 million, or $0.39 per share, on a non-GAAP basis.
  • Adjusted EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA was $313 million, down $542 million sequentially from Q1, mainly due to weaker alumina and aluminum prices and increased tariffs.
  • Alumina Segment Revenue: Third-party revenue declined 28%, primarily reflecting lower average realized prices.
  • Aluminum Segment Revenue: Third-party revenue increased 3% on higher shipments and currency benefits, partially offset by lower prices.
  • Cash Flow from Operations: $488 million in cash from operations, supported by a $251 million working capital release.
  • Cash Balance: Ended the quarter at $1.5 billion, with positive free cash flow for the quarter of $357 million.
  • Dividend: $27 million returned to shareholders through the quarterly dividend.
  • Return on Equity: 22.5% year-to-date return on equity through the second quarter.
  • Segment Tariff Impact: $95 million in Section 232 tariffs in Aluminum, with $60 million of Midwest premium uptick on Canadian tons, resulting in a $55 million margin compression.
  • Full-Year Outlook Changes: Aluminum shipment guidance lowered; corporate cost outlook declined to $160 million for the full year; interest expense outlook raised to $180 million; return-seeking CapEx reduced to $50 million for 2025.
  • Alumina Outlook: Performance in the Alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $20 million sequentially in Q3 2025, driven by lower maintenance costs and higher output.
  • Tariff Sensitivity: Quarterly Section 232 tariff costs are expected to approach $250 million in Q3 2025 at an LME of $2,600 and a Midwest premium of $0.67 per pound.
  • Canadian Production Flexibility: Approximately 30% of Canadian aluminum output is available for redirection to non-U.S. markets based on economic incentives.
  • Ma’aden JV Sale: Sale of a 25.1% stake in the Ma'aden joint ventures was completed July 1 for $1.35 billion (including $1.2 billion in shares and $150 million in cash); proceeds mainly allocated to taxes and fees.
  • Australia Tax Dispute: Favorable tribunal ruling secured, with the tax payable fully reserved on the balance sheet as a liability in accordance with GAAP.
  • San Ciprián Smelter: Ramp-up delayed into mid-2026; force majeure declared on the workforce agreement after power outage invalidated original October 2025 full restart deadline.
  • Production Restarts: Decision to resume ramp-up at San Ciprián made in the third quarter; The Alumar smelter in Brazil is operating at about 92% capacity, with a full restart anticipated within the year despite pot failures.

SUMMARY

Alcoa (AA 4.20%) reported a sequential decline in revenue and profitability for Q2 2025, with segment margins also falling, largely driven by alumina price weakness and sharply higher Section 232 tariff expenses on North American imports from Canada. The Ma’aden joint venture divestiture contributed significant post-quarter liquidity, yet most proceeds are earmarked for taxes and fees. Persistent Section 232 tariffs forced Alcoa to redirect over 100,000 metric tons of Canadian aluminum to non-U.S. markets since March 2025 to safeguard margins. The company confirmed that Midwest premiums need to rise further, to "between $0.70 and $0.75" per pound, to offset total tariff costs. The San Ciprián restart delay led management to lower full-year aluminum shipment guidance, compounded by continued challenges with the Spanish refinery and smelter margin recovery timelines extending into 2026.

  • Chief Financial Officer Molly Beerman stated that, "You look at the pricing today, so with LME at $2,600 and Midwest Premium at $0.67 a pound. We are near neutral or even slightly positive," but warned this is conditional and could shift.
  • Alcoa's Western Australian mine approvals face indefinite timeline extensions, as public comment and environmental review processes postpone new region entry until at least 2028, with ministerial approval now expected beyond Q1 2026.
  • Force majeure was declared on the San Ciprián workforce agreement, pushing the restart deadline past October 2025 and shifting full restart expectations to mid-2026 with utilization still below capacity.
  • Management acknowledged that roughly 70% of Canadian output is under contract to U.S. customers, limiting near-term redirection flexibility despite tariff-driven arbitrage opportunities.
  • Alcoa's adjusted net debt was $1.7 billion at the end of the quarter. Adjusted net debt improved from $2.1 billion at the end of the first quarter, with further deleveraging identified as a near-term capital priority.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

  • Section 232 tariff: A U.S. trade measure imposing tariffs on certain imports, including aluminum, on national security grounds.
  • Midwest Premium: The price premium paid for physical delivery of aluminum in the U.S. Midwest, typically reflecting logistics, storage, and market-specific supply-demand factors.
  • Force majeure: A contractual clause freeing parties from liability or obligation when extraordinary events prevent fulfillment of obligations, such as natural disasters or regulatory actions.
  • VAP (Value-Added Product): Semi-fabricated or processed aluminum products with higher margins compared to standard commodity-grade offerings.

Full Conference Call Transcript

William Oplinger: Thank you, Louis, and welcome to our second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. We delivered strong operational performance this quarter, both in terms of safety and stability. This is an important value driver for the company. We maintained a fast pace of execution on our priorities and continued to steer through changing market conditions. Let's begin with safety. Safety performance remained strong in the second quarter with no fatal or serious injuries reported. Injury rates continued to trend below our full-year 2024 benchmarks, supported by a sustained emphasis on leader time in the field. This initiative enables leaders to engage directly with teams, conduct safety observations, and deliver both positive reinforcement and constructive feedback. Continued executing on our strategic priorities.

On July 1, we closed the sale of our 25.1% stake in the Ma'aden joint ventures for a total value of $1.35 billion, consisting of $1.2 billion of modern shares and $150 million of cash. In late April, we successfully concluded a five-year tax dispute in Australia with a favorable ruling for Alcoa. The Australian Review Tribunal affirmed our long-standing position, determining that no additional tax was owed. This outcome reflects the substantial effort and dedication of our internal and external legal and tax teams, whose strong defense was instrumental in achieving this result. Throughout the quarter, we steered through frequent tariff updates that demanded agile decision-making and rapid adjustments across both sales and supply operations.

We redirected portions of our Canadian production to serve non-U.S. customers to mitigate Section 232 tariff impacts. In parallel, we sustained active advocacy and engagement with policymakers on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border. Finally, our recent customer engagements continue to signal encouraging demand trends. We extended our supply agreement with Prismean, a global leader in energy and telecom cable systems, and completed our first North American sale of Ecolum, a value-added low-carbon product, further reinforcing our position as a supplier of choice for sustainable aluminum solutions. In summary, we delivered strong performance across the areas within our control while continuing to advocate for trade policies that support both Alcoa and the broader U.S. aluminum industry.

Now I'll turn it over to Molly to take us through the financial results.

Molly Beerman: Thank you, Bill. Revenue was down 10% sequentially to $3 billion. In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased 28% on lower average realized third-party price, partially offset by increased shipments. In the Aluminum segment, third-party revenue increased 3% due to increased shipments and favorable currency impacts, partially offset by a decrease in average realized third-party price. While the Midwest premium increased during the quarter in response to the increase in U.S. tariffs, the increase was more than fully offset by lower LME, resulting in a decrease in the realized price of aluminum. Second quarter net income attributable to Alcoa was $164 million versus the prior quarter of $548 million, with earnings per common share decreasing to $0.62 per share.

On an adjusted basis, net income attributable to Alcoa was $103 million or $0.39 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $313 million. Let's look at the key drivers of EBITDA. The sequential decrease in adjusted EBITDA of $542 million is primarily due to lower alumina and aluminum prices and increased U.S. Section 232 tariff costs on aluminum imported into the U.S. from our Canadian smelters. Alumina segment adjusted EBITDA decreased $525 million primarily due to lower alumina prices. In addition, higher production costs, energy costs, and raw material costs were only partially offset by higher volume. The Aluminum segment adjusted EBITDA decreased $37 million while lower metal prices and unfavorable currency were more than offset by lower alumina costs.

The segment was impacted by $95 million in U.S. Section 232 tariff, which includes the increase in the tariff rate from 25% to 50% effective June 4. These impacts were only partially offset by price mix improvements and higher volume. Outside the segments, other corporate costs increased while intersegment eliminations changed favorably due to lower average alumina price requiring less inventory profit elimination. Moving on to cash flow activities for the second quarter. We ended the quarter with cash of $1.5 billion. Cash from operations was positive again this quarter, providing $488 million along with a working capital release of $251 million. Working capital decreased from the first quarter as accounts receivable came down with the lower prices for alumina.

Subsequent to the close of the second quarter on July 1, we received approximately 86 million shares of Mauden and $150 million of cash for the sale of our interest in the Modden joint ventures. The majority of the cash will be used to pay related taxes and transaction fees. Moving on to other key financial metrics. The year-to-date return on equity was positive at 22.5%. Days working capital was flat sequentially at forty-seven days. Our second quarter dividend added $27 million to stockholder capital returns. We had positive free cash flow for the quarter of $357 million. Turning to the outlook. We have four adjustments to our full-year outlook.

First, we are adjusting our annual outlook for aluminum shipments to 2.5 million to 2.6 million metric tons, down from our initial estimate of 2.6 million to 2.8 million metric tons. The change is due to reduced shipments from the San Ciprian smelter where the restart was disrupted by the nationwide power outage in April. As separately announced earlier this week, the joint venture has decided to resume the restart process in the third quarter. The reduction in aluminum shipments will primarily impact the third quarter due to the timing of the San Ciprian ramp-up.

Second, we are lowering other corporate costs to $160 million from our initial estimate of $170 million due to reductions in corporate expenses and favorable currency impacts. Third, we are increasing our outlook for interest expense to $180 million from our prior estimate of $165 million due to unfavorable value-added tax assessments. And last, we have adjusted the return-seeking CapEx outlook for 2025 to $50 million, down from $75 million, as the pace of spend has not matched the original forecast. For the third quarter of 2025, in the Alumina segment, we expect performance to improve by approximately $20 million with lower maintenance costs and higher production.

In the Aluminum segment, we expect higher Midwest premium revenue in relation to the increased tariffs. Premium changes can be calculated from the sensitivities provided in the appendix. Those premium gains will be offset by approximately $90 million sequential expense increase for tariff costs. With the increase in the U.S. Section 232 tariff rate from 25% to 50%, we expect quarterly tariff costs to approximate $250 million based on an LME of $2,600 and Midwest premium of $0.67 per pound. While costs related to the San Ciprian restart will be higher sequentially, they are not material and we expect to cover with improvements in other operations. Alumina cost in the Aluminum segment is expected to be favorable by $100 million.

Our updates exclude impacts from the recently announced tariffs on U.S. imports from Brazil. Below EBITDA, other expenses in the third quarter are expected to remain consistent with the second quarter. Based on last week's pricing, we expect third quarter operational tax expense of $50 million to $60 million. Tax expense in the third quarter is notably higher than the second quarter, which included a catch-up benefit to reflect the annualized effective tax rate when applied to year-to-date earnings. In the appendix to the earnings materials, you will see that our Midwest paid and Midwest unpaid premium sensitivities have been updated to reflect the expected trade flow as a result of additional tariff impacts.

We also revised our regional premium distribution to align with our efforts to redirect tons and optimize margins. Currently, approximately 30% of our Canadian aluminum production is available for spot sales and can be redirected to customers outside the U.S. when the premium, shipping, and tariff netback calculations favor another destination. Additional updates to our sensitivities may be needed as we continue to adjust our trade flows to the tariff structure. I'll turn it back to Bill.

William Oplinger: Thanks, Molly. While tariffs continue to drive near-term volatility, the broader outlook for aluminum demand remains robust. This slide illustrates Alcoa's long-term demand forecast underpinned by powerful global megatrends across key sectors. Transportation leads as the largest and fastest-growing sector driven by the shift to electric vehicles, lightweighting initiatives, and increased vehicle production. Construction shows more modest growth tempered by a slowdown in China, though emerging markets and favorable macroeconomic conditions like lower long-term interest rates and increased fiscal spending in Europe offer upside potential. Packaging is expanding rapidly, fueled by consumer preference for recyclable materials. Electrical demand is accelerating due to the global energy transition, with aluminum playing a critical role in renewable power generation and grid modernization.

Other sectors, including consumer durables and machinery and equipment, are also expected to grow steadily. Importantly, the geography of growth is shifting. Primary aluminum demand is projected to grow significantly faster in markets outside China at a 3% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, while China's growth slows to just 0.2% CAGR largely met by recycled metal. Within Alcoa's core regions, North America is expected to lead with a 3.8% CAGR, and Europe is projected to grow at 1.5%. Three structural drivers underpin the overall aluminum growth trajectory. The green and digital transition: Aluminum is essential to electrification, decarbonization, and digital infrastructure, supporting everything from electric vehicles to data centers.

Second is the rise of developing economies, the China transition, and reshoring in North America and Europe. As China's growth moderates, developing economies are stepping up. Meanwhile, reshoring in North America and Europe, often driven by trade policy, continues to boost regional demand. Third, material substitution: Aluminum's recyclability and performance make it a preferred alternative to copper, plastics, and other materials, especially in closed-loop systems. Despite short-term uncertainty, these megatrends provide a resilient and compelling roadmap for long-term aluminum demand growth. Now turning to our markets, starting with alumina. After a sharp decline during the first quarter, alumina prices rebounded somewhat in recent months.

As noted in our previous earnings update, over 80% of Chinese refineries were operating at a deficit due to high bauxite prices and low alumina prices. In response, approximately 10 million metric tons of refining capacity in China was curtailed or reduced for maintenance during April and May. These production cuts contributed to a more balanced market and supported the price recovery seen in the second quarter. Looking ahead, market dynamics will continue to be shaped by capacity expansions in Indonesia, India, and China. As new supply comes online, we anticipate further production cuts and plant maintenance in China may be necessary to maintain market balance in the second half of the year.

On the bauxite front, prices have remained elevated due to supply uncertainty stemming from mining license withdrawals in Guinea. These disruptions could intensify with the onset of the rainy season, further tightening supply. In this dynamic environment, Alcoa's global refinery network continues to provide reliable alumina supply to both our smelters and key customers. We're also capitalizing on high bauxite prices with our Juruti mine on track to achieve record sales volumes this year. Let's now move on to aluminum. LME prices dipped in April, coinciding with the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, regained momentum over the course of the quarter. Despite this recovery, prices remained below first-quarter levels, reflecting ongoing market volatility. U.S.

Midwest Premium initially surged in early June following the implementation of the 50% Section 232 tariffs, reaching $0.68 per pound and now stands at $0.67 as of late last week. This remains below analyst estimates of approximately $0.75 per pound to fully offset the tariff costs. The Midwest Duty Unpaid Index, calculated by subtracting the tariff from the duty-paid premium, has shown negative or near-zero values at times. This theoretical index only holds when the market is priced on marginal imports, which hasn't consistently been the case.

In response, we sold over 100,000 metric tons of Canadian metal normally destined for the U.S. to non-U.S. customers since March, and we'll continue this strategy until the Midwest premium fully reflects the new tariff structure. From a demand perspective, conditions remain steady in both Europe and North America, although sector performance is mixed. Electrical and packaging continue to perform well. Construction appears to be stabilizing, and automotive remains the most affected by tariff-related uncertainty. In China, easing trade tensions with the U.S. are providing a modest boost to demand. On the supply side, growth was limited in the second quarter, with only marginal increases from smelter restarts and expansions. Global production remains constrained, particularly outside of China.

Specific to Alcoa, in North America, our value-added product order book remains stable, with strong demand for slab, billet, and rod. In Europe, VAP volumes improved slightly in the second quarter, with billet demand strengthening and rod and slabs demand holding firm. However, foundry orders softened in both regions, largely due to uncertainty in the automotive sector tied to tariff impacts. We are progressing the approvals for our next major mine regions in Western Australia, Myra North and Holyoke, as well as our current mine plan, which had been referred by a third party. The twelve-week public comment period for both approvals, which began in late May, is a statutory part of the environmental impact assessment process.

It enables individuals, communities, and stakeholders to share input, raise concerns, and recommendations for consideration. And currently, we are supporting the public comment period through a comprehensive communication and engagement campaign. The focus of the campaign is to ensure that the public has access to accurate information and facts about our environmental performance in Australia and understands our commitment to responsible mining in the Northern Jarrah Forest. Key highlights include over fifty-five years of rehabilitation experience, only 2% of the Northern Jarrah Forest has been cleared for mining, no mining in old-growth forests, operations are limited to areas previously cleared for timber, and 75% of cleared forests has been rehabilitated.

The campaign also showcases the expertise and dedication of our Alcoa professionals who apply a science-based approach to biodiversity and rehabilitation. Given the complexity of advancing two mine approvals at the same time, the volume of documentation submitted by Alcoa and independent experts, and the anticipated effort to review and respond to public submissions, the original timeline for mine approvals is no longer feasible. While ministerial approval was initially targeted in the first quarter of 2026, it is now expected that the process will extend beyond that time frame. Following the public consultation period, we expect the Western Australia EPA will publish a revised timeline.

We remain committed to working collaboratively with the Australia EPA and other stakeholders to secure material decisions as early as possible in 2026. In the meantime, we have developed multiple contingency plans and expect to continue accessing bauxite of similar grades until the new mine regions are operational. We will continue to engage with stakeholders to fulfill our responsibilities as a trusted miner and to sustain our right to mine for decades to go. To conclude, in the second quarter, Alcoa delivered strong safety results and operational performance in areas within our control. We also made meaningful progress on our strategic priorities.

Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing at pace across our 2025 priorities, enhancing operational competitiveness, navigating market dynamics to deliver long-term value for our stockholders, and advancing the approval process for our Western Australian mine plans. With that, let's open the floor for questions. Operator, please begin the Q&A session.

Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. And our first question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Katja Jancic: Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe starting on the tariff side, Molly, I think you mentioned that the current outlook includes anything for potential, I guess, percent tariffs on Brazil. How would if that does happen, is there any way you get impacted from that potentially?

Molly Beerman: It depends on if alumina is indeed excluded. Our read of it now is that it's covered under the annex, but until we see the executive order that would be related to Brazil, we can't assure that. If that were the case, we are sourcing our U.S. smelters with Brazilian alumina. We could redirect supply and provide them from Western Australia, obviously, that will take time and cost more in terms of shipping. But we have that option and depending on how that executive order is written, we can adapt.

Katja Jancic: Okay. Thank you. And maybe just another question, Bill, the Western Australia contingency plans. Can you discuss what some of those plans could be? And how could that impact your cost?

William Oplinger: So at this point, as far as an impact on cost, we don't anticipate any impact in 2025 or 2026. The expectation that we would be into the new mine area late 2027 has now slipped out into 2028. We have a series of contingency plans that cover different mining areas, potentially going deeper in the pit that we're in. That allows us to be comfortable that we are working through the process and we'll get the right approvals.

Katja Jancic: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: And your next question today will come from Alex Hacking with Citi. Please go ahead.

Alex Hacking: Yes. Thanks, Bill and Molly. Just following up on Katja's question there on WA. If the delays to the new mine areas are extended, can you keep mining the lower grade areas for a period of additional years, or it would be more urgent than that? Thank you.

William Oplinger: So we'll continue to mine the areas that we're in today. And as I said to Katja, no impact on 2025, 2026. As we said, we expect it to be in the new mines till in late 2027. That slips out till 2028 at this point. But we do have contingency plans in place that can go up to all the way up to a fifteen-month delay if needed.

Alex Hacking: Okay. What if it's longer than fifteen months?

William Oplinger: We'll work through that, and we'll look at what implications it has on operating rates in Panjara. But we'll work through that when we get there.

Alex Hacking: Okay. Thanks. And then just following up on the tariff math. I mean, Molly, you mentioned that it was $215 million a quarter in Section 232 cost. Is that being more than offset by what you're getting on the additional Midwest premium at the moment? Thanks.

Molly Beerman: Yes. Alex, let me give you the numbers of what we experienced for the second quarter. If you look at in our bridge discussion, we talked about the tariffs being $95 million more in the second quarter. That's on top of the $20 million that we paid in the first quarter. So cost in the second quarter was about $115 million. We only saw a Midwest premium uptick of about $60 million. So we had margin compression of about $55 million and related to our Canadian tons. Now obviously, we're getting a benefit on our U.S. tons, but I'm giving you the compression that we felt on the Canadian.

Alex Hacking: Sorry. The $60 million additional? Is that just on the Canadian tons, or that includes U.S. tons?

Molly Beerman: Just on the Canadian tons.

Alex Hacking: Okay. Thank you. So Alex, let me just give you a little bit more color. You look at the pricing today, so with LME at $2,600 and Midwest Premium at $0.67 a pound. We are near neutral or even slightly positive. If you look at the volumes as a whole. Because the higher uptick in Midwest premium on the U.S. Tons would be more than the net negative on our Canadian tons. So that's at this current pricing. If this were to hold from a whole-year perspective, we would be about neutral to slightly positive.

Alex Hacking: Thank you. That's perfect.

William Oplinger: Thank you. Very helpful. Thank you. So and the one point that we continue to make is, and I think other analysts that follow the space make it. The current Midwest doesn't support the overall tariff costs coming out of Canada. So current Midwest is sitting at $0.67 $0.68. We think it needs to be between $0.70 and $0.75, depending on how you look at it to cover total tariff costs. And that's why we have moved repositioned metal going that was expected to go into the U.S. That is now going into destinations outside of the U.S. just because that math doesn't work currently.

And anywhere we can take advantage of that, we will and move tons for other destinations.

Operator: And your next question today will come from Daniel Major with UBS. Please go ahead.

Daniel Major: Hi, thanks for the questions. Just a very quick first one. Just to clarify the maths on the tariff costs. You had $115 million cost in the second quarter. You said it's going be a negative $90 million delta. So it's $205 million the run rate of cost in the second quarter. Is that correct?

Molly Beerman: That will be the third quarter cost. Yes. So third quarter. And then we're $205. Saying again at latest pricing, so if you dialed forward, that would be the $215 that we guided to in tariff cost.

Daniel Major: Sorry, you said latest pricing you mean spot pricing or like Yeah. Sorry. The $205 is what we gave as the outlook for the third quarter. So that's the 90 sequential change. And then we were also saying that our quarterly tariff cost at today's pricing is $215.

Daniel Major: Got it clear. That's very good. Thanks. Yes. The second question just on San Ciprian. You updated the respective net income drag and cash burn. This year. Can you give us any sense of expectations for 2026 at this point? My guess would be the refinery will continue to burn cash. But is there any guidance you can give on either the cash burn or not at the smelter in the refinery.

Molly Beerman: Yes, Daniel, we're not giving the guide there yet, but you're right. At recent market prices, the Spanish operations are challenged. From the smelter, the delay to the restart after the power outage, has driven the full ramp-up into 26. We do expect after full ramp-up that the smelter will be profitable but the refinery that while having a first quarter 25 income, they will move into a loss position for the rest of the year. They will struggle still at this API level into 26.

Daniel Major: Okay. But at spot, you can confirm that the smelter would be cash neutral?

Molly Beerman: The smelter had fully ramped up. A level would be profitable.

William Oplinger: But remember, it won't be fully ramped up in 2026. I mean, it will hit our anticipation is that it will hit the ramp-up schedule for 2026. But for the full year, it still will you know, it will be going through the process of ramping up.

Molly Beerman: We won't be we won't be fully ramped up till midyear 26.

Daniel Major: Very helpful. Thanks.

Operator: And your next question today will come from Nick Giles with B. Riley. Please go ahead.

Nick Giles: Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. This is Henry Hurl on for Nick Giles today. Thank you for taking my question. So on our estimates, you have about 50,000 metric tons of spare annual capacity at work. In the Midwest, premium has increased sharply to reflect that tariffs may be stickier than originally thought. So my math, the spare capacity at work could generate over $100 million of EBITDA annually. And so what prevents you guys from restarting this capacity today? Thank you.

William Oplinger: Thanks for the question, and it's a great question. We're currently running three lines at work. We have a fourth line at Warrick that would produce approximately 50,000 tons. The issue in Warrick is that, that fourth line needs a lot of work and will take some time to get restarted. So our estimate is that it would be about $100 million investment to restart that fourth line, and it would take us about a year get it up and running. So we will certainly continue to run the numbers on work.

We would need to ensure that the tariffs will stick around for quite a while given that ramp-up curve in Warrick before we made the decision of investing another $100 million in a restart in work.

Nick Giles: Thank you. Definitely makes sense. Thanks for the color there and continued best of luck.

William Oplinger: Thank you.

Operator: And your next question today will come from William Peterson with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

William Peterson: Yes. Hi, good afternoon and thanks for taking the questions. On mid-twenty-six restart of San Ciprian, it still implies 35% utilization. Can you remind us of I guess, when the term they're agreeing with the workforce comes in and whether the delayed restart has any impact on that?

William Oplinger: So after Bill, thanks for the question. After the power outage occurred in Spain, we declared force majeure with on that contract. Because limited our ability to be able to meet the deadlines that are included in the contract. Recall that we had anticipated a full restart by October 1, 2025. And, and then from there, we had some flexibility on how we run the plant after that full restart. Because of the power outage, we have said that we were not going to meet that October 1 deadline. And we've moved it back to the middle part of twenty-six.

William Peterson: Okay. And then kind of different angle on the tariffs. And last quarter, you about conversations with the U.S. Government. But I guess in light of the tariffs remaining where they are now, how should we think about the commercial strategy things like tariff cost sharing and maybe perhaps you can share additional color on your shifting flows to non-U.S. customers. How should we think about that in the coming months? And then finally, is there any opportunities from relief from the Canadian government in the meantime?

William Oplinger: So we have had extensive conversations on both sides of the border. I've been talking to the Kearney administration often. I've been talking to the U.S. Administration. Often. And at a 50% tariff, you saw us take action to redirect 100,000 tons to non-U.S. customers. As Molly said in her prepared remarks, we have the ability of about 30% of the Canadian volume to be able to redirect that to non-US destinations. And we will do so as long as the netbacks make more sense to ship it to other places than the U.S. So we've been very dynamic and handled this situation very quickly. And we'll continue to do so in the future.

I felt like that was a multipart question. Did I miss any of that?

William Peterson: Yes. Just anything on tariff cost sharing that you might add?

William Oplinger: Well, when you say tariff cost sharing, we through the Midwest premium, Midwest premium is largely passing on the higher tariffs. To our customers. So just to be clear, we are saying the Midwest premium needs to be at, let's say, dollars $0.075 to fully cover the tariffs. We're able to pass through 90 of that through a higher Midwest premium. To our customers. So while, you know, we're particularly thrilled with the tariffs, our customers are paying significantly higher prices for aluminum in The United States than they would pay anywhere else in the world.

William Peterson: Yep. Well, understood. Thanks, thanks, Bill.

William Oplinger: Thanks.

Operator: And your next question today will come from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Chris LaFemina: Hey, thanks for taking my question. And it might be a dumb question, but isn't it the case that the tariffs are really just a net neutral for you? Because if you're diverting tons away from the U.S., you can get better prices elsewhere, the Midwest premium goes up. Unless the Midwest premium is high enough for you to sell to The U.S., well, then you won't sell there. And at the end of the day, it's really I mean, in equilibrium, it should be a net neutral.

And, it's the customers in the U.S. who'll pay the premium, but I'm not really sure why the guidance should be for any net impact other than if you if you only consider where Midwest premium is today and where the LME price is today. But over time, shouldn't it be a wash? That's my first question.

William Oplinger: So let me address this, and Molly can certainly feel free to jump in. With all the numbers that Molly gave us earlier in the call, in the end, if the Midwest premium reacts accordingly, it's a net neutral. To Alcoa. However, there's a big however there. Our customers in the U.S. are seeing significantly higher prices than anywhere else in the world. And if you assume that they can pass that on to their customers, then I guess the net neutral to them. But somebody ends up eating that tariff cost. And there are dedicated supply chains from Canada to our customers, literally trains that go from door to door from our plants to our customers.

That our belief is that it makes the most sense for the industry to have metal being able to flow from Canada to the U.S. with either a lower tariff or no tariff at all. And so and that's the best thing we think for our customers and for our industry to be able to do that.

Chris LaFemina: Right. So in that case, the impact of the tariffs is really on total demand. In which case, LME prices would go down. But the mid but the net impact mean, other than the overall kind of price global LME price impact, the impact on Alcoa should still be a neutral rate, way the Midwest premiums got to equal the tariff. Over time.

Molly Beerman: Chris, you have to remember that we do have customer contracts. We don't have full flexibility to move the metal dynamically. So 70% of our Canadian metal is on contract, so that needs to flow into the U.S. for customer commitment.

Chris LaFemina: Okay. Thanks. And then sorry, just a second question on the ATO. Which I think you had $225 million in taxes now by the middle of next year. Is any of that provisioned on the balance sheet yet? How do we think about the kind of cash flow impact of that and the balance sheet impact of that?

Molly Beerman: Yes, that is fully reserved on the balance sheet now as a tax payable.

Chris LaFemina: Great. Thanks.

William Oplinger: Chris, I'm just going to add to that and I can't help myself. That is a major win for Alcoa. That was a large overhang on the company and on the stock. We have been battling that for five years now. And to get that behind us is a really big deal. And I'll give some credit to our tax and legal team here that stuck with it and really presented a great case. So I'm pleased that we're able to put that behind us.

Chris LaFemina: Thank you.

William Oplinger: Thanks.

Operator: And your next question today will come from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Carlos De Alba: Yes, thanks very much. Hello, Molly and Bill. Just on the last point you made Molly that 70% of your Canadian smelting output is on the contract to be sold to U.S. customers. When does can you start renegotiating potentially those contracts so that 70% decreases?

Molly Beerman: So those are annual contracts. Also understand we have firm customer relationships that we're not going to jeopardize. So Carlos, you could see some flexibility, but it's going to be a careful balance of respecting our strong customer relations as well as moving the metal to get the best margin.

Carlos De Alba: Alright. Okay. And if I may, just on the progress on the Alumar smelter in Brazil. What is the capacity utilization at which you are running and when do you expect to get sort of a steady state?

William Oplinger: So we continue to struggle with the IMR restart. And we're sitting at about 92% capacity today. So net, we moved a little bit forward over the last quarter. The issue there, Carlos, is some of the patched pots that we had not having to reline. Are failing faster than what we had anticipated. So it's a battle. We take I would say, a step and a half forward and a step backward, about every day in Alumar. And we're anticipating that we'll have that restarted completely this year. However, I told you that before and I think you know we're we're that's that's my target, but I've missed my target before, so take that with a grain of salt.

Carlos De Alba: Alright. Good luck. Thank you very much.

William Oplinger: Thank you.

Operator: And your next question today will come from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Lawson Winder: Thank you, operator. Hello, Bill and Molly. Thank you for today's update. Just wanted to follow-up on the Maud Den closing. And whether there's any new thinking on the to monetize that amount? Or know, even just simply lower your overall scoring cost using that as collateral? Thanks, Russ.

Molly Beerman: Lawson, while we have the option to monetize those shares during the lockup period, recall the lockup period we cannot sell shares until the third, fourth and fifth anniversary, the third each year. But to monetize those would be complex transactions and that would be classified as debt on our balance sheet. And it might not really be a cost-effective source of liquidity either. We don't expect to hold the shares for an extended period of time after each lockup period expires, We don't have plans to monetize in advance right now. We don't have a specific use for the cash that would have us add that debt to our balance sheet.

Lawson Winder: And then as you report those gains in losses going forward, I assume you'll be adjusting those up?

Molly Beerman: Yes. It will be mark to market and you'll see special items to remove that from our regular operation.

Lawson Winder: Great. Thank you very much.

Operator: And your next question today will come from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research.

John Tumazos: Thank you for taking the question. I'm curious as to the confidence you have in Spain restarting this week that the utility will deliver electricity. Presumably the population grows something like 10% July, August. With tourism and then there's air conditioning, electricity demand in the heat of the summer. So are there any guarantees of power delivery or something that's different than August 28 when the wind didn't blow?

William Oplinger: So John, it's a question that we've been wrestling with since the wind didn't blow on the date earlier in the year, we've been working with the national and regional representatives of the country, and they have developed and this is obviously not just to our prompting but prompting from other industry in Spain. They've approved a list of 65 actions in the energy sector that are designed to make the electricity grid more resilient. They are incorporating additional tools in the networks like voltage control, working on stability in the phase of oscillations. So they are working to strengthen the electrical system. There's no guarantees in life.

And but they are taking, we believe, the right measures to ensure that the power stays on.

John Tumazos: As you start up Monday the fourteenth, how many pots per week do you energize? Is the circumstance in late July and August where really not drawing very much electricity because of the gradual nature of the process.

William Oplinger: Yes. So it's a gradual ramp-up process, and we should hit the target by the middle part of next year. My recollection is there's 500 pots in Spain. So we'll be starting you can do the math on how many pots we have to start to hit total production by the middle part of year. But yes, we'll be starting a few pots a week to get that restart done.

John Tumazos: Thank you. Thanks.

Operator: And your next question today will come from Glyn Lekla with Baron Joey. Please go ahead.

Glyn Lekla: Firstly, Bill, just if you could share any thoughts on how discussions with the government are going regarding the tariff. I had heard that maybe Canada could be in line for a reduction relative to the rest of the world. And then secondly, want to put the cart before the horse, but net debt came down. You're almost within sight of that 1 to 1.5 billion range. Just your thoughts on timing for when we may hear some words on capital management and what you're potentially thinking if it's not too early? Thanks.

William Oplinger: Glenn, on the tariff discussion, I want to emphasize exactly how much advocacy and engagement we've been doing over the last three or four months. I've spent time in Ottawa. I've spent a lot of time in DC. I have met with Mr. Hassett, Mr. Lutzig, Mr. Carreer. I even had a very brief very, very brief discussion with President Trump while I was in Saudi Arabia, and we're talking like a fifteen-second discussion. President Trump while I was in Saudi Arabia. And we're doing really two things. One is an underlying education of how short the U.S. Market is for aluminum. And how long it would take to replenish that via building plants in the U.S.

And recall, and I know you know this, but building a smelter in the U.S. Would probably take us at least five years. In order to replace the 4 million metric tons of aluminum that comes outside of from outside of the U.S. We need six gigawatts of energy. That's not gigawatt hours. That's six gigawatts of energy. And it would probably cost $30 billion to put 4 million metric tons here. So we're educating the government on those facts. And then secondly, we're educating them on how tight the supply chains are between the U.S. and Canada.

And the fact that we think it makes a lot of sense to have metal coming out of Canada to support our customers. And then there's one last data point. There's something like 12 or 13 jobs in the downstream that are supported by every Canadian primary upstream jobs. So the relationship between how much jobs can be created in the upstream is really outweighed by how many jobs there already are in the downstream processing business in The U.S. Do you wanna address the capital flows?

Molly Beerman: So, Glenn, thanks for the question on cap allocation. Made good progress this quarter on our adjusted net debt target. At the end of the second quarter, we were at $1.7 billion that's an improvement from the $2.1 billion from the first quarter. We are about $200 million away from the high end of our target at $1.5 billion. When we reach the top end of the range, we will look across our capital allocation priorities, the returns to shareholders, portfolio actions as well as any growth opportunities. We do recognize that we have a bit more work to do inside the target.

The adjusted VES, which we define as including the gross debt plus the pension is at $3.2 billion and that's above the high end of that range that we've targeted at 2.1. So we will work on some delevering. We do have our 2027 notes of those remain about $141 million. Those are now callable at par. We also have a portion of our 2028 notes that are now callable with a small premium. That's about $219 million. So we'll look at keeping in mind that our cash target is $1 billion to $1.5 billion. We'll work on some delevering. Thank you.

Operator: This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for any closing remarks.

William Oplinger: Thank you for joining our call. Molly and I look forward to sharing further progress when we speak again in October. And that concludes the call. Thank you.

Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.