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DATE
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 11 a.m. ET
CALL PARTICIPANTS
President and Chief Executive Officer — Peter D. Arvan
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — Melanie M. Hart
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TAKEAWAYS
Net Sales: $1.8 billion in net sales for Q2 2025, marking a 1% increase driven by maintenance product performance and improved construction-related trends.
Gross Margin: Maintained at 30% gross margin for Q2 2025, flat with the prior year, supported by supply chain initiatives and pricing discipline.
Diluted Earnings per Share (EPS): $5.17 diluted earnings per share (GAAP) for Q2 2025, up 4% from $4.99 in Q2 2024.
Operating Income: Operating income was $273 million for Q2 2025, a rise from $271 million in the prior year.
Operating Expense Growth: Increased by 1%; new locations contributed 11% to the expense increase in the second quarter, with expenses as a percentage of revenue at 14.7%.
Equipment Sales: Up 1% in equipment sales on stable replacement demand and modest price realization, with a late-quarter price increase providing incremental benefit.
Maintenance Product Sales: Performed well, with chemical sales rising 1% despite deflation pressures and weather headwinds.
Building Material Sales: Down 1% for building material sales, a sequential improvement over the first quarter and better than underlying market trends suggest.
Regional Sales Trends: Florida and Arizona sales grew 2% each; Texas and California’s new pool construction sales fell 23%, offset by resilient maintenance and aftermarket sales.
Europe Performance: Net sales grew 2% in local currency and 7% in USD, led by southern markets and late-quarter improvement in France.
Horizon Segment: Net sales declined 2%; solid maintenance product sales offset by weakness in larger construction projects.
Commercial Sales: Rose 5% in commercial sales due to investments in commercial team capabilities and expanded project offerings.
Independent Retail Sales: Declined 3%, with improvement in June 2025 after early-quarter weather headwinds.
Pinch A Penny Franchise Sales: Rose 1%, adding five new stores in the quarter; total now 302 franchised stores.
Digital Sales Adoption: Pool 360 platform transactions reached 17% of total net sales, up from 14.5% last year.
Share Repurchases: $104 million in share repurchases in the second quarter, $36 million higher than the prior year second quarter, with $516 million remaining authorized.
Inventory: $1.3 billion inventory balance, inventory days on hand improved by 1.5 days from the prior year second quarter; increase attributed to new product offerings and seasonal stocking.
Leverage Ratio: 1.47, at the lower end of the targeted range; term loan facility amended and extended for increased capacity and better terms.
Full-Year Guidance: Diluted EPS now expected at $10.80-$11.30, including a $0.10 ASU tax benefit; flat full-year sales and gross margin rate anticipated relative to prior year.
SG&A Expense Outlook: Expected year-over-year growth of 2%-3% for full year 2025, including costs for new sales centers.
SUMMARY
Management signaled stability in core maintenance-driven demand, buttressed by a broadened private label offering and higher digital adoption, even as construction and discretionary projects remain challenged by macroeconomic factors. The updated EPS guidance reflects sustained pricing initiatives and cost controls, though new pool construction’s recovery depends on future interest rate movements. Cash flow from operations is projected at 90%-100% of net income for the full year, weighted toward the second half, and recent financing actions have enhanced liquidity.
President and Chief Executive Officer Arvan noted, "maintenance and repair business of the growing install base is still very resilient" while new construction remains pressured.
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Hart said, "Pricing for the quarter benefited sales 2% to 3% but continues to be offset by 1% related to chemical and commodity selling prices."
Tariff-driven pricing actions contributed incrementally to results, with management confirming no major demand pull-forward into the quarter.
Late-quarter permit data in Texas showed sequential improvement but remained negative.
Planned price increases from manufacturing partners for the next season are already included in updated guidance.
Inventory increases resulted mainly from new product introductions and support for additional locations, not from excess or unsold goods.
No material supply chain or labor constraints were identified during the period, and product availability remains stable.
Franchise network expansion, notably five new Pinch A Penny locations including the first in North Carolina, advances footprint and retail integration goals
INDUSTRY GLOSSARY
Pinch A Penny: Pool Corporation's franchise retail network, focused on pool supplies and service products across the Sunbelt and other key U.S. markets.
Horizon: Pool Corporation's division specializing in irrigation and professional landscape equipment distribution.
Pool 360: Pool Corporation’s proprietary digital commerce and water testing platform for professional and retail customers.
ASU: Refers to an Accounting Standards Update, providing a nonrecurring year-to-date tax benefit.
NPT: Pool Corporation’s National Pool Tile brand, providing proprietary finishes, tile, and design products for residential and commercial pools.
MBT: Product line of branded tile decking and pool finishes promoted through company showrooms.
Permit Data: Measured number of approved new pool construction or renovation projects, serving as a leading industry indicator for future installation and sales opportunities.
Full Conference Call Transcript
Peter Arvan: Thank you, Melanie, and good morning, everyone. We were very pleased to see positive sales growth in the second quarter along with stable gross margins and steady operating margins versus the prior year. Given all the challenges affecting the broader economy and industry dynamics, I consider these results to be very solid. They are a testament to the team and reflect our ability to deliver outstanding value and exceptional service to our customers, further reinforcing Pool Corp's leadership position in the industry. The second quarter started off similar to how we exited the first quarter. We saw encouraging trends in most areas of the business.
Through April and early May, unfavorable weather conditions in certain markets through mid-June tempered demand but turned more favorable towards the end of the quarter, helping us post a modest sales gain. The macro uncertainty and constantly developing policy decisions combined with no signs of interest rate easing continued to pressure new pool construction and larger renovation projects. Despite this, our construction-related sales fared better than the permit data would have suggested. As you all know, permit data indicates that new pool construction is down high single digit. But it's still too early to call the year. It is worth noting that the second quarter trends improved from the first quarter but still represent a headwind on a year-over-year basis.
The remodel activity we expect will be modestly better than the new construction activity for the balance of the year. The aging installed base necessitates certain remodel and renovation projects each year, creating ongoing demand. We believe that larger renovation projects in the most recent quarters have been split into phases allowing consumers to reduce their spend per project or spread out the spend over a longer time frame. For the second quarter results, we reported $1.8 billion in net sales, up 1%, reflecting our team's effort executing on strategic areas of our business. Maintenance products performed well, including strong growth in our private label chemical products.
On sales related to new construction and renovation activities, we saw improving trends during the quarter creating less of a drag on sales than in recent quarters. Tariff-driven price increases had a modest impact on the quarter due to timing and was somewhat offset by deflation in our commodity categories. Regionally, we saw distinct trends across our four major US markets. Florida and Arizona each delivered solid 2% sales growth for the quarter, outperforming national averages. In both states, ongoing population growth in migration and favorable weather patterns fueled continued demand across the maintenance, renovation, and new construction categories.
Our strong local presence, robust distribution network, and targeted marketing initiatives have kept us top of mind with pool professionals, allowing us to expand our customer base and capture additional market share. Additionally, franchise growth and emerging builder partnerships in the states further strengthen our positions for long-term success. Texas and California continue to experience this challenge in new pool construction with sales down 23%, respectively, reflecting macroeconomic headwinds and tempered consumer confidence. However, maintenance and aftermarket sales in these markets remain resilient, highlighting the value of our established installed base and trusted service partnerships.
Our teams in Texas and California are focused on supporting remodel activity and enhancing customer support to ensure we are well-positioned for recovery as local economies and construction activities rebound in the future. We remain confident that our disciplined investment and regionally tailored strategies will enable us to continue outperforming the broader market across all our core geographies. Additionally, we were encouraged by the sequential improvement in permit data for Texas as the quarter developed, although it is still negative. In Europe, net sales increased 2% for the quarter in local currency and 7% in U.S. Dollar.
We saw sales growth in most European economies, particularly in the southern countries, while France dealt with colder temperatures but showed some improvement in June. We are encouraged that this trend for Europe continued into July. For Horizon, net sales declined 2% in the quarter. Maintenance product sales were solid. However, weakness in larger development-related construction projects muted those gains. Pricing, for the most part, has stabilized in the market, and we are encouraged with the month-to-day July sales trends. Looking to our product sales mix, chemical sales grew 1% despite price deflation and weather headwinds in certain markets, highlighting the power of our brands and expanding offering for our customers.
When combined with our Pool 360 water test platform, it is a very strong chemical offering that will continue to take share as our brands grow. Customer feedback is excellent, and our confidence in this area and our entire retail support offering is strong. Building material sales declined 1%, a sequential improvement from what we saw in the first quarter and much of last year and better than the underlying trends would suggest. The results highlight the value of our NPT branded offering, including improved trends in our proprietary pool finish and the effectiveness of our consumer-facing showrooms and refreshed dealer showrooms that support our customers and enhance the pool owner's design experience.
Equipment sales, which include cleaners, increased 1% during the quarter, reflecting modest price realization and stable replacement volumes mitigating the year-over-year decrease in new construction units. For context, the most recent price increase went into effect late in the quarter. Looking at our end markets, our commercial sales increased 5% in the second quarter, supported by the investments we have made in developing our commercial team, designating commercial warehouses, and expanding start-to-finish project capabilities.
Sales to our independent retail customers declined 3% in the quarter, showing a similar cadence during the quarter on what we saw in overall sales, but with greater weather headwinds on our DIY maintenance in May and early June, considering our retailers' heavy concentration in northern markets. We saw much improved retail sales in these markets in June. For our Pinch A Penny franchise group representing our franchisees' sales to their end customers, sales increased 1% for the quarter, reflecting their best-in-class offering and customer experience while also noting their Sunbelt concentration with less weather headwinds this quarter. Now let me comment on gross margin results.
As you saw, the business posted a solid 30% gross margin for the quarter, consistent with the same period last year. I'm pleased with our team's collective effort and focus in this critical area. We have seen historically downward cycles place additional pressure on winning business. And through collaborating with our supply chain teams and pricing specialists, and making smart decisions on the ground, we've been able to maintain gross margins in line with prior year in a very challenging and dynamic environment. Melanie will cover this in more detail in her prepared remarks. Our continued investment in digital innovation is paying off.
With Pool 360 platform transactions now representing 17% of net sales, up from 14.5% last year, reflecting enthusiastic customer adoption and creating durable competitive advantages that are hard to replicate. We celebrated the opening of our 450th branch during the quarter. Strategic openings in the market with higher pool densities continue to be the driver in further building out our footprint and positioning ourselves for further share expansion. We opened two new locations during the quarter and four year-to-date. Our Pinch A Penny franchise network added five new stores in the quarter, including the first new store in North Carolina, increasing the Pinch A Penny locations to 302 franchised stores.
As we move through the peak season, we expect sales in the back half of the year to be modestly up with a full-year performance anticipated to be relatively flat. In the absence of an interest rate cut or external catalyst, we are updating our diluted earnings per share guidance for the year to a range of $10.80 to $11.30, which includes a 10¢ realized benefit from the ASU year-to-date. We remain highly confident in the long-term fundamentals of our industry.
With the demographic trends, desirability of at-home leisure, and continued need for maintenance and renovations supporting ongoing demand, we believe that when the macro backdrop improves and the housing turnover resumes, new pool construction and renovation activity will accelerate, and Pool Corp will be uniquely positioned to capitalize on that growth. Finally, I want to thank the entire Pool Corp team for your dedication and adaptability. Your commitment enables us to deliver exceptional value and reliability to our customers and partners and, importantly, drive success for our shareholders. We look forward to the opportunities ahead. I will now turn the call over to Melanie Hart, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for her detailed commentary.
Melanie Hart: Thank you, Pete, and good morning again, everyone. We continue to see robust maintenance activity, benefiting from both volume and industry pricing. While new construction permits are improving in several key markets, we have not yet seen a consistently positive trend across all regions. We are closely monitoring these variations and remain prepared to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. Both the traditional pool season price increases implemented earlier in the year and the subsequent late April, early May price increase enacted by certain vendors to react to higher expected tariffs have passed through and have been accepted into the marketplace.
Although initially up for discussion, there was not a third wave of June pricing increase that impacted our cost to date. Pricing for the quarter benefited sales 2% to 3% but continues to be offset by 1% related to chemical and commodity selling prices. Chemicals, specifically Tricor, are seeing selling prices less than what we saw in the second quarter of the prior year. This pricing, although lower than last year, still represents a significant premium over 2020. We saw volume increases, in particular, our private label chemical sales activity. Negative comparisons from discretionary spend leveled out with just a 2% impact overall on the sales for the quarter.
As Pete highlighted, our investments at our MPT showroom continue to pay dividends in showcasing for our builder customers and homeowners the many options where our unique MBT branded tile decking and pool finished products are available to customize their backyard. Our resulting building material sales decrease of 1% is outpacing the market activity compared to permit trends. I'm very pleased to be reporting a positive comp sales quarter. We continue to showcase our ability to get pricing in the market as a result of both our service levels and our focus on the aftermarket, resulting in a 1% sales benefit.
Impacts of discretionary spend in remodel and new pool construction were a 2% headwind but again improving from a 3% impact in the first quarter. We were encouraged to see the positive results in Europe and better Horizon trends. Gross margins of 30% for the quarter remained strong. We continue to see our internal initiatives related to supply chain improvement, private label growth, and effective pricing enabling us to maintain margins, even with lower building material product sales and impacts from customer mix. We saw normalized second quarter seasonal margin benefit. We reported a 1% increase in operating expenses for the second quarter.
Through our earnings release date, we have now opened eight new locations since the same time last year, contributing around 11% to the expense increase with our disciplined operations offsetting other cost increase drivers. Our volume-related expenses for both compensation and freight remain very well managed. During the quarter, we were able to maintain expenses as a percentage of revenue of 14.7%.
Operator: We realized operating income of $273 million, an improvement compared to $271 million in the prior year.
Melanie Hart: Interest expense of $12.2 million represented a reduction of $1.8 million. Altogether, we generated diluted earnings per share of $5.17 compared to $4.99, which is up 4% from the second quarter of last year. Summarizing our second quarter results, we are pleased with the positive signs related to discretionary spend in the pool and outdoor living space and our ability to utilize our technology tools to grow our private label chemical sales while leveraging our network to generate positive income over the prior year. Moving on to our balance sheet. We finished the quarter with inventory balances of $1.3 billion, which is up 3% from the prior year.
This increase includes new product offerings and supply chain actions to stock our network locations for the season. We expect that our inventory patterns for the rest of the year would follow a typical seasonal pattern with balances drawn down through the third quarter, which will position us to evaluate our needs for the 2026 season during the fall and winter early buy offering. Inventory days on hand improved one and a half days from the prior year second quarter. Our 1.47 leverage ratio remains at the lower end of our targeted leverage range. In early July, we amended and extended our term loan facility to increase capacity, lessen the maturity, and obtain more favorable borrowing terms.
Operator: Cash flow for the quarter remains in line with our annual expectation
Melanie Hart: of achieving 90% to 100% of net income and cash flow from operations weighted more heavily to the second half of the year from a cash generation standpoint. Consistent with the first quarter of 2025, we increased the pace at which we have completed share repurchases, purchasing $104 million during the quarter, an increase of $36 million over the prior year second quarter. Year-to-date, we have exceeded prior year repurchases by $76 million and have $516 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization. As we look out over the second half of the year, on our first quarter call, we referenced an expected future dated June equipment cost increase.
With the changing tariff landscape, we do not actually see an increase in cost with a June effective date. However, there were some additional vendors over the initial group of 20 that did push through May effective price increases. Sales for the full year now are expected to be relatively flat with last year, reflecting some pricing benefit from the April, May price increases but no significant change in discretionary spending on current levels for the rest of the year. Although trends have improved throughout the year, based on the activity to date, we do not anticipate a pace that would provide a significant benefit to 2025.
Gross margin rate is also expected to be in line with the prior year full year, which would represent an improvement after considering the nonrecurring positive import tax included in 2024. Execution on realization of tariff-driven price increases and supply chain improvements are net positive that are offsetting any impact from product and customer mix. As you have come to expect from us, SG&A expenses will continue to reflect productivity to offset inflationary increases and be adjusted real-time based on actual volume at each sales center location. The year-over-year increases in the back half are expected to be higher than the current quarter, likely ranging from a 2% to 3% increase for the full year.
An improvement from the 3% previously estimated and will include the cost spent on the new sales centers we will open this year. We do not have any significant changes to our expectations regarding interest expense and our estimated tax rate. We have included those ranges along with our forecasted share count as part of our quarterly earnings presentation posted to the website. The update on our interest expense range to be $46 to $47 million includes the incremental share repurchases we have done year-to-date. Having completed our largest quarter of the year, we have updated our expected diluted EPS range to $10.80 to $11.30, including the 10¢ ASU tax benefit recognized year-to-date.
We continue to focus on running a strong business through this period of higher interest rates and reduced consumer spending. Our actions on sales that support market share gains and on our gross margins holding up in a slower demand environment suggest strong fundamentals that will support the business when discretionary growth returns. Our capital allocation, expense management, and strategic actions remain focused on long-term profitability. Thanks, everyone, for listening in on today's call. We will now begin our Q&A session.
Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Please limit yourself to asking only one question and one follow-up question. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Susan Maklari: Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Peter Arvan: Morning, Susan.
Susan Maklari: My first question is I want to get a better sense of how you are thinking about the full year. Appreciating Melanie's comments around some of the dynamics with tariffs and pricing and the implications that will have. But when you think about some of the momentum that you are seeing around some of the company-specific initiatives, how should we think about what that will add to the year, especially given the strength you saw in the second quarter relative to some of those incremental headwinds that may come through as you consider some of the moves in the operating environment and tariffs?
Peter Arvan: Yeah. Good question, Susan. I think the business is performing well with a lot of uncertainty in the market. I think one of the shining stars is the fact that the maintenance and repair business of the growing install base is still very resilient. So, that's good. People still love their pools. People have to repair their pool. That is continuing as we talked about. I would say that the renovation business is different than it was a few years ago. As I mentioned in my comments, we feel like many of the larger renovation projects are being broken up into phases to make them more digestible.
And I think that trend is going to continue for the balance of the year as long as there's no interest rate relief. I believe that on the construction side, the larger builders are the ones that are winning in the environment. And more specifically, it's larger builders in the highly desirable areas. Right? So the southern cities that are still doing well. So, you know, from where we are spending our time and effort, you know, we've invested in the NPT centers in the areas where we do see new pool construction growing. We have refreshed our product offering there.
We have invested, as you know, with developing our private label chemical brands and we're seeing great traction in those areas. And, again, that just ties into the maintenance business. And making sure that we are the preferred brand. Our technology is getting good reviews, and we're seeing a nice increase in adoption. And for context, remember, never said that it was going to rocket straight up. We're looking for consistent progressive growth in the adoption of our tools, and we are certainly seeing that. The feedback on the tools is good. We continue to invest in those tools to improve the overall customer experience. And I think that's what's driving further adoption.
And I guess, lastly, we continue to open locations in areas that we see continued growth, both short-term and long-term. You know, we look at markets like Texas, for instance, and, you know, in our commentary, we said that the construction in Texas has been under pressure or is down. But, you know, our view on that is that's really tied to the greater Texas housing market, which appears to be a little bit overbuilt. Existing inventory continues to climb. So I think this is a short-term problem for Texas. But long-term, we believe Texas is a great pool market for us now, and in the future, will be too. So we continue to invest in those markets.
So some of our investments are paying off short-term. Certainly, focus on capacity expansion or capacity creation and our focus on customer experience, which is allowing us to win, you know, at the dealer level. I think making sure that our value proposition for the customer is unmatched is helping us win at the dealer level. I think our demand creation activities from a marketing perspective again, are helping us win at the dealer level.
So I think the company is, given the current environment, and where we have placed our investments, as those that I've mentioned and perhaps the investments that we've made in improving our supply chain team and investments in our commercial team, those are all highlighted in our results and are helping drive Pool Corp.
Susan Maklari: Okay. That's great color. And then maybe following up, when you do think about the pricing that has been passed through to the market this year relative to some of those headwinds that you mentioned around some of the consumers breaking down renovation projects and those types of things. I mean, how are you thinking about the elasticity of demand in the end? Do you think that some of your suppliers are thinking more about price versus volume as they consider the outlook for the macro and how maybe they'll be approaching that going forward?
Peter Arvan: You know what? I think it falls into two categories, Susan. I think that, you know, a portion of our sales of all products are discretionary and a portion of them are nondiscretionary. So I think, you know, as it relates to price, and price going up on equipment, I would tell you that if it's a, you know, if your pump has failed, whether your pump is, you know, 10% more or 5% more or 2% more than it was last year, I really think it's irrelevant. You have to replace the pump. I would tell you that we do see, our dealers are reporting that some consumers are opting to fix pumps and repair pumps.
So if we look at our part sales, for instance, our part sales are outpacing total sales growth in almost every market. So I think that there are some trade-offs being made with, well, can I fix it versus replace it? So I think in nondiscretionary areas, I don't really think the pricing is having an impact on whether it gets repaired or replaced. Although, sometimes people are opting to have it replaced if the repair cost is too high.
I also think that there's some things on a pool pad, for instance, whether, you know, whether you're talking about if the heater is bad, and it's June, something like that can be deferred to later in the year when you need the heater. So, again, that would fall into the discretionary area. And then certainly, new construction is discretionary. But when I look at the price of material, as it relates to new pool construction, so even if the pad is up, you know, 5%, 6%, 10%, depending on what, you know, what you have. Given that, you know, you're talking about a $15,000 to $16,000 line item in a project.
You know, average pools now are, you know, $85,000 to $90,000. If the pool pad was a thousand dollars more or a thousand dollars less, I don't know that causes a consumer to opt in or opt out as a result of that. So I think it's a long answer to your question, but I think it really depends on the circumstance and how the consumers are navigating that.
Susan Maklari: Yeah. Okay. That's all very helpful color. Thank you. Good luck with the quarter.
Peter Arvan: Thank you.
Operator: Our next question comes from Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please go ahead.
Ryan Merkel: Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking the question. Pete, just a first question on the outlook. The bottom line on why you lowered EPS guidance for the year? Is it that the first half was just a little below what you thought? Or is it something else?
Peter Arvan: No. It's really, I think the first half, you know, we had anticipated that there would be some interest rate cuts, which didn't happen in the first half. And at this point, I have my doubts whether they happen in the second half at all. And if they do, whether in time to really, you know, kind of impact demand in the second half. So we just, you know, the adjustment was relatively minor that we made. I think that the maintenance business is good. The installed base is in great shape. Whether it, you know, at this part of the season, you could see the weather map just like I have. It's very hot.
And that's good for our business. But I think it's really looking at the outlook on new pool construction and saying, without an interest rate cut, that will address the greater housing market. I think it would be tough to say that we believe that new pool construction is gonna rebound this year. And if without new pool construction rebounding, even with a little bit of price working its way into the industry, those two things are gonna offset.
Ryan Merkel: Yep. I agree with that. Okay. That's helpful. And then my second question on gross margin, I was happy to see the 2Q and even the first half results pretty good in a tough market. I guess my question is on the first quarter call, you talked about more price competition. Has this abated as you've gotten to the in the meat of the season?
Peter Arvan: Yeah. If you remember, we talked about it. We said it's always more pronounced in the first quarter because of the timing of early buy payments, and it's a smaller quarter. So from our perspective, at this point, I don't really see anything new going on in that area. So, I mean, we still, we called out in our commentary. We still have seen some deflation on some of the chemicals. But by and large, I would say, I would classify, you know, competitive activity as nothing out of the norm.
Ryan Merkel: Got it. Alright. Thanks. Pass it on.
Operator: Our next question comes from David Manthey with Baird. Please go ahead.
David Manthey: Pete, just to follow on your comment on rates. I'm just wondering, are you referring to a cut in the Fed funds rate somehow impacting mortgage rates and the housing market in general? And then second, as it relates to that the monthly payment buyer, down here in Tampa, Florida, the minimum you pay for a pool is 60k, which is higher than the industry average was back in 2021. So I'm wondering, given the pool content and general inflation we're seeing, is there even an interest rate that pulls that monthly payment buyer back in? So two-part question on rates.
Peter Arvan: I think it is, I think there's a couple things, Dave. I think the interest rate has to do with housing turnover. Right? Not so there's people that are in their home. I'm not moving. I need to borrow money to buy the home, but at the elevated rate. Good news is my home equity is high. Bad news is the access at home equity is very expensive. But I think if the Fed cuts rates and that works its way through the lending community all the way through mortgages for the family that isn't moving, it will have some impact on them, although I don't know that it would be a tremendous amount as you mentioned.
I do think the bigger impact is housing turnover. Because we see a lot of activity as it relates to housing turnover, and I think there's people sitting on a lot of equity in their homes that if they could access that as part of a transaction, if you will, to move to that bigger forever house where they wanna build a house, I think that's where we'll see it.
David Manthey: Got it. Okay. And then to follow on to Ryan's question, as it relates to the outlook. In the past, I know you've said that once you sort of get past the midpoint of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, the discretionary portion of your sales can have a greater impact on the overall. But as we look at the report here, you said that you saw an at the June. You were encouraged by July trends. And yet the guidance went lower. I'm just is it the expectation for second half growth in new and R and R, what's lower today versus ninety days ago, or was there something else in there?
Peter Arvan: Yeah. I think it's I think that's exactly right, David. It's the expectation on new. I don't really see any improvement material improvement, if you will, in permit data that would suggest the back half of the year that new construction and large rental projects are going to increase. So I think we're looking at okay. Here's the trends we had for the first six months of the year. And those don't really look like they are changing all that much. On a month-over-month basis. But, you know, the rest of the business, the maintenance portion of the business is doing quite well.
So I just don't see enough in the near term to suggest that new pool construction is going to improve materially. So that's why we made the small adjustment.
David Manthey: Makes sense. Thank you, Pete.
Peter Arvan: Thank you.
Operator: Our next question comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead.
Trey Grooms: Hey. Good morning. Pete, could you talk about any inventory benefits to the margin in the second quarter? You have supply chain as a benefit in the bridge there, but any more color around that? Then also, as you kind of think about the puts and takes on the gross margin for the balance of the year. Repeat our Melanie? Sorry.
Melanie Hart: Yeah. So as it relates to the current quarter, you know, the supply chain benefits are made up of a combination of multiple things that we're working on from a process standpoint and initiatives that we're doing. So, you know, we're continuing the throughput that we're getting from our CSLs. That help to lower our overall product cost. We're actually continuing some improvements as well on our freight activity there. So those are helping our product cost. When we look at the incremental margins that we're getting on our private label products, those are also helping us.
And then we did get, you know, some minor benefit which would be a little bit more pronounced as we move forward for the rest of the year. From the price increases that went into effect late in the quarter. So as we look out for the balance of the year, you know, we'll see a little bit of margin benefit from some of those incremental prices in the third and fourth quarter. And then we'll also see a little bit of improvement from the year-over-year change in the building materials as that started to moderate when you compare it to prior years.
Trey Grooms: Okay. Alright. That's helpful. Thank you. And, just to kinda circle back on the discretionary piece, it sounded like the press release that there was, you know, some improving trends in discretionary. There was some mention of maybe some year-over-year, you know, a year-over-year increase there. But is it and I think from the from some of the slides, it implies that volume, I believe, is the way to think about it is volume is still down there. But you're getting some benefit from pricing that's maybe slightly more than offsetting that. Is that the right way to kind of bridge that commentary around discretionary?
Melanie Hart: Yeah. So the improving trend was really more sequential versus, you know, we're not seeing any net positive on the trends on building materials. But even when you look at permits, yeah, they're moderating from a decline year-over-year, so they are improving throughout the year. And then our actual building material sales activity is showing much better results than that. So when you looked at building materials specifically, you know, we were down about 5% quarter over quarter in the first quarter, and that improved to 1% in the second quarter. The pricing impact on building materials is not significant. So they just saw kind of more normalized one to 2% as it relates to inflationary pricing benefits.
Trey Grooms: Okay. Got it. Thanks for helping clear that up, and good luck. Thank you.
Operator: Our next question comes from Andrew Carter with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Andrew Carter: Hey, thank you. Good morning. What I wanted to ask is just stepping back on the questions around new construction. You've talked about the rates on one side and the hope of kind of lower rates. To get existing home sales moving. But I guess with where we are now, dealer capacity and obviously the dealer profit pool, I would argue is likely meaningfully expanded from 2019. Do you think they will actually turn their attention to try to grow volumes that's kind of supportive of mid to high single digit for your algorithm?
Better said, I guess, step back from all of it, do you think mid single digit to high single digit construction is still possible with where pool costs are and where dealer capacity is today? Thanks.
Peter Arvan: It's a very interesting question, and I would say the answer is I think it really depends on the dealer. I think we have some dealers that are trying to find a way to make the price of a pool more affordable. At the same time, if you survey the dealers, they would tell you that their SG&A, their operating costs, labor costs, insurance, tax fuel, everything is also up. So I think there are some folks that are looking at it differently. There are some folks that say, you know, like, some of our dealers, Andrew, are actually doing quite well.
So, like, the folks again, that concentrate at the high end, that business, as we've said, you know, it sounds like repeated every call, but that business is good, was good, and the outlook is still strong. It's really at the lower end, and I don't know that you'll see a material drop in the basic cost of a pool. What I will say is keep in mind that the average price of a pool has come up is much from mix as anything else. I mean, as Dave mentioned, you know, the basic price for a small pool is in Florida is still around $60,000.
In other parts of the country, you can get an entry-level pool for that or a little bit less. The average is pulled up because of the current mix. And the reason for that is more about, you know, financing the associated financing cost at the lower end where they're much more highly leveraged versus the cash buyer at the upper end.
Andrew Carter: Thanks for that. Second question I would ask with all the kind of tariffs kind of impact to supply chains and second-order effect, have you seen anywhere out there where there's any tightness on products? And I know you're domestic, maybe tightness that would hit the lower end guys. Might as well while I'm on the topic. Anything on the labor front that you've seen out there? Obviously, from, you know, your contractors, customers, but anything you would obviously that would be second order to you guys. Thanks.
Peter Arvan: Yeah. I was we talked to our dealers. We don't get the sense that there is a there's a labor problem. I think everybody has enough labor to do the work that there is today. As far as your other question on second-order effect on tariffs, I'm not quite sure I understand that. Maybe you could expand a little bit so I make sure I answer the right question.
Andrew Carter: Yeah. I apologize. I meant more on the pro any kind of product shortage you're seeing. I know that you source domestically, but just the supply chain whips and saws if that's if you if that hits you at all.
Peter Arvan: Yeah. Nothing out of the ordinary. In any given year, there'll be an issue with, you know, with something, but there's nothing that, you know, we could point to that says that hey. There's a shortage of this material or that material that's affecting everybody. I would say supply chains are generally in very good shape.
Andrew Carter: Thanks, Patron.
Operator: Our next question comes from Scott Schenberger with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Scott Schenberger: Thanks very much. Curious. You guys mentioned in the inventory, it's a little bit higher year-over-year. Mentioned ensuring customers have good access. But the first was expanding product offering. Just curious if there's anything we should read into there. If you could elaborate on what that is, and then I'll have a follow-up. Thanks.
Peter Arvan: Yeah. There's really nothing to read nothing to read into that. Every year, manufacturers introduce new products into the market, and we have to make sure that we have those products available for sale as the sales development efforts are underway. So nothing really to read into that. And what I would also say is not we have really no concern on our end as to the inventory balances. We're actually very, very good at managing, managing inventory. So we'll be exactly where we need to be at year-end.
Scott Schenberger: Alright. Thanks for your and then as a follow-up, guess, Melanie, probably more for you. Recent passage of the one big beautiful bill. Is it might that have a favorable impact on your cash flow? Have you assessed where that might impact you is the primary question. And then guess, maybe either one of you, do you think it could have a derivative impact on your consumers? And could you possibly see it as soon as this year, potentially perception of tax benefit individually assisting in discretionary spending. Thanks.
Melanie Hart: Yeah. So from the company standpoint, our tax team has done a very detailed analysis, and now you're prepping me for my answer to the board next week. But, you know, we see it as some slight benefits. You know, there's a couple of things on the international side. That really won't have a material impact on our tax rate overall. But, you know, the biggest thing that we expect to see as a benefit is the change in the accelerated depreciation. So that will, for us, be a positive as it relates to the cash flows on the tax side. On the homeowners, I don't know that we'll be able to see any type of quick reaction on that.
Most people, I would expect, are still kind of digesting the impacts. And, you know, we really haven't seen any significant changes in consumer confidence or, you know, spending of discretionary income at this point.
Scott Schenberger: Thank you very much.
Operator: The next question comes from Sam Reid with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Sam Reid: Awesome. Thanks so much. I wanted to touch on chemicals and dig deeper on pricing. So it sounds like the price backdrop in chems is still negative, you know, just based on the commentary. But it also sounds like you're not seeing a change or a deterioration, I should say, in the competitive backdrop. So if things are not getting more competitive, I guess the question is kind of why is pricing still negative?
Peter Arvan: You know, that's Sam, that's a really good question. You know, as we look at the market, there isn't a macro backdrop that says, that, you know, there should be, that we should see deflation on chems. We're in the heat of the season. Demand is good. I think what I would tell you, here's the way I would characterize it is there was pressure earlier in the year. Now there is things really haven't changed. So I think would I don't think things are getting any worse. I think from a chemical perspective, prices are not much different than we saw, you know, earlier in the year.
But, you know, I can't give you a scenario that says, hey, I think there's a backdrop that's gonna lead to a decline a further decline in chemical pricing.
Sam Reid: No. That's helpful, Pete. I appreciate it. And then maybe just touching on Q2 sales in the context of some of the tariff noise during the quarter. And just want to maybe put a finer point. Did any of your customers as best you can tell, pull forward demand ahead of tariffs? If there was any demand pull forward, you know, what would be the implications on Q3 in that scenario? Just any help on that would be appreciated. Thanks.
Peter Arvan: Yep. No. I can't tell you that we really saw any material pull forward. Remember, so much of our business is pickup business every day. 70% of our business takes at the counter. Our transactions, if you will, take place at the counter and pick up. So I don't know that anybody we didn't we didn't see any material change in buying patterns, so I don't expect there to be a whipsaw in into third or fourth quarter as a result of that. We would characterize buying patterns as normal for in season.
Sam Reid: That's really helpful. Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.
Operator: Our next question comes from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.
Garik Shmois: Hi. Thanks. First, just hoping you can review the gross margin bridge in a little bit more detail for the back half of the year just as far as the puts and takes go. With respect to the supply chain, the pricing, the mix that you outlined in the slide deck, I'm just wondering which of these categories are getting more favorable? To get to gross margin growth in the second half?
Melanie Hart: Yep. So as we look at the second half, we'll see, pricing will be a little bit more favorable. And we would expect that product mix, although, would still be a negative, you know, year-over-year when you're looking at individual quarters. It's trending more positive, so it'll be a little bit less negative on the product mix side.
Garik Shmois: Okay. That's helpful. A smaller part of your business, but the improvement in Europe, was notable. Wondering how much of that is an improvement in the underlying market or I know the continent had a bit of a heat wave, especially in June. I was wondering maybe that was a big driver of the growth there.
Peter Arvan: Yeah. I think that as I mentioned, it's really, you know, if I look at Europe, obviously, our largest market in Europe is France. France had France didn't help a lot. So France was down slightly for the quarter even though Europe, the more southern countries in Europe are the ones that were leading the charge. I would tell you that I think the weather is good, and it appears that there's a little more stability over there.
So I was over there last quarter, and I came away more encouraged at the outlook for Europe, which has been a they've been in a tough spot for a few years, but, you know, the team appears to be more optimistic and we're seeing it on the sales line, so we're encouraged.
Garik Shmois: Okay. Very good. Thank you.
Operator: Our next question comes from Colin Burran with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Colin Burran: In your prepared remarks, you provided some high-level commentary, but can you just provide any more color or put some numbers around how demand trended by month and how things are tracking thus far in July? Just trying to understand if underlying demand, excluding some of those weather impacts, accelerated throughout the quarter and as we exited June and if volumes could inflect positively at some point in '25 just with the discretionary end market decline shrinking.
Peter Arvan: Yeah. I think we attempted to kind of frame that up as follows. The early in the quarter, the markets, you know, April and May were stronger than the beginning of June. June is, you know, the biggest month of the year is always gonna be, excuse me, May or June. So in the June, we saw a bit of a I wouldn't characterize it as, you know, a huge slowdown, but it wasn't as positive as it was earlier in the quarter. For, you know, a couple of weeks. And then on the back half of June, things picked up again. And I would say that those trends have carried out into July.
So we are encouraged at the near-term outlook.
Colin Burran: Okay. Understood. And then just on the pricing dynamics, I understand that one of the manufacturers walked back some of a second price increase here, but I think another large manufacturer is out publicly saying that they might be looking to take further price in the market later this year. Can you just talk about what you're seeing and hearing maybe about second half price increases from suppliers? And what's baked into your guidance currently?
Peter Arvan: Yeah. I don't think we're gonna see any increases aside from the normal increase that the manufacturers are gonna put in at the end of the year. There was some contemplation about another in-season increase prior to the pre-buy or early buy, and pricing for next year. That seemed to have abated. But now we're looking at, you know, we're starting to receive increased letters for the upcoming season. They'll take effect depending on the manufacturer sometime either in September or October, and those are contemplated in our guidance, what we know of now.
Colin Burran: Great. Thank you for the color.
Operator: Our next question comes from Sean Cowan with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Sean Cowan: Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Just first, on the 2% to 3% net price you realized outside of commodities, it looks like the manufacturers were realizing, like, more mid-single digits. So can you just break out what's included in commodities versus that other 2% to 3% bucket? Is that just equipment? And you guys are kinda getting squeezed a little on price there? Or are there other things we should be thinking about that are included?
Melanie Hart: Yeah. No. The main difference between what we're realizing from a price increase versus the equipment is that only 30% of our product mix overall is equipment. So when you're looking at the, you know, higher price realization that the equipment manufacturers are getting, that's only on a portion of our business. So things, you know, such as the building materials, you know, those are seeing much more normal increases, one to 2%. And so, you know, really, the difference there is going to be product mix overall. As it relates to the commodities, what we have grouped in there is generally going to be chemicals, plumbing, and rebar.
And, you know, to some extent, there is a little bit of decking material as well, some of our decking building materials.
Sean Cowan: Okay. Great. And then the private label chemicals continue to show good results despite what kind of seemed like a tough backdrop for chemicals for the industry. Can you talk about what's driving that growth? And then where private label sales are as a percentage of total chemical sales today? Versus the last couple of years?
Peter Arvan: Yeah. I would say what's driving the growth is we have a great portfolio of brands for the chemical space. So we, last year, refreshed all of the brands. We completed the lines. We added the POOL 360 water test software. And decisions to change brands on chemicals are not short-cycle decisions that, you know, the large retailers, and some of our other dealers make. So it takes time for them to decide whether they're going to change and when to gain confidence. So we know we have a good product.
We know that we have really, you know, kind of best-in-class, a complete value proposition for chemicals, whether it's the POOL 360 water test, the consumer apps for the water test, and how those all work together. So we think that we have a good product. We think we have a great value proposition for the customer, and we think in time or as time goes on, that will continue to grow, especially when you couple that with the rest of the things that we do for our dealers.
Operator: Great. Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Peter Arvin, President and Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.
Peter Arvan: I just want to thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to our next call, which is on October 23 when we will review our third quarter 2025 results. Enjoy the remainder of your summer, and have a great day.
Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.