It may not be long before Snap, Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) officially becomes a broken IPO. Shares of Snapchat's parent company plummeted 14.3% last week, closing in on its all-time low of $17.59 -- set exactly one month ago -- and bringing it close to dipping below its $17 IPO price for the first time.
At least three analysts issued cautious notes on Snap, with one of those Wall Street pros downgrading the stock. Mark May at Citi lowered his rating on the shares from "buy" to "neutral," concerned that monetization growth is being hampered by the slow rollout of new platforms and channels. He's also concerned that Snap stock may be vulnerable later this summer, when the IPO lock-up expiration frees insiders to unload shares. May is slashing his price target from $24 to $20.
Citi's May isn't the only Wall Street pro taking a cautious stance these days. Oppenheimer's Jason Helfstein is also concerned about monetization. His channel checks show strong growth among existing advertisers, but winning over new marketers has been challenging. This may not come as much of a surprise. It's easy to see why some advertisers may be cautious about slapping their brands on user-generated story ads.
Helfstein is slashing $5 million from his revenue target for the current quarter as result of advertiser adoption concerns. He's hopeful that a self-service ad manager that Snap will introduce next month will help widen the platform's appeal. He's sticking with his "outperform" rating and $23 price goal, but he's clearly cautious about near-term hiccups.
Finally, we also have Anthony DiClemente at Nomura Instinet, with a fear-stirring note from last week. He sees Snapchat app downloads trending weaker through April and May, suggesting that user adoption may be as problematic as finding new advertisers. Unlike rival Instagram's impressive rise, download-data tracker SensorTower shows Snapchat downloads worldwide down by 22% through the first two months of the second quarter. DiClemente was already bearish with a "reduce" rating on the stock and a bleak $14 price target, but now he's lowering his revenue and earnings forecasts for 2017. The $3.24-per-share loss and $842 million in revenue DiClemente is now projecting, down from his earlier call for $2.68 a share in red ink and $953 million on the top line, is well below Wall Street averages.
Snap already disappointed investors with its first quarterly report as a public company. If the bearish trend continues, the company won't have to wait until a second disappointing report to break below its $17 IPO floor.