As a precious metals company, you'd expect Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM) shares to move in tandem with prices of gold and silver. That, however, wasn't the case last month when Wheaton jumped nearly 12.5% despite gold and silver prices declining a percentage or two points each. In fact, Wheaton's rivals Franco-Nevada Corp (NYSE:FNV) and Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) also ended the month on a flat note.
What pushed Wheaton stock higher in October? A hugely positive outlook from an analyst could be the answer.
During the quarter ended June, investment firm 3G Capital upped its holding in Wheaton by 50% to 1.5 million shares.
While presenting at the C4K Investors Conference in Toronto mid-October, 3G Capital's Dan Dreyfus hinted the stock could climb to mid-40s backed by three catalysts -- resolution of the long-pending dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), unlocking of value from developing mines, and the normalizing of the gold-to-silver ratio as silver prices climb.
Some of the growth catalysts that 3G Capital is perhaps looking at are Wheaton's streaming agreements attached to key mines like Barrick Gold's Pascua Lama, Hudbay's Rosemont copper mine, and Vale's Salobo. As a streaming and royalty company, Wheaton doesn't own mines but buys precious metals from third-party miners under streaming agreements in return for funding them upfront.
3G Capital's idea of Wheaton shares doubling from current prices could be overly ambitious, but there's no denying that the company is on solid footing. Wheaton has historically earned higher margins than both Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold, and is trading cheaper than peers on a price-to-cash flow basis despite its recent rally.
Of course, a CRA fine could burn a deep hole in Wheaton's pocket, and that's something investors need to watch for. Look for any updates management might provide in its third-quarter earnings call scheduled this week.
Whether Wheaton shares can continue to head higher will depend a great deal on what the company reports for its third quarter tomorrow. For now, I'd insist you follow 3G Capital and remain invested in Wheaton Precious Metals.