Since its initial public offering in 2017, Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS -3.13%) continues to outperform the broad market. Year to date, shares have advanced nearly 60% versus just 4% for the greater S&P 500.
Naturally, some investors are fearful the stock has gotten ahead of itself and is now too expensive. However, that does not appear to be the case for this luxury apparel company. If anything, revisiting Canada Goose's S-1 registration statement and the three growth strategies listed there makes me confident the company still has room to run.
Image source: Canada Goose.
1. Introduce and strengthen our brand
Management noted they had a brand awareness deficit outside of their home market of Canada, with an Aug. 2016 survey concluding the "vast majority of consumers outside of Canada are not aware of [the brand]" and finding that only 16% of U.S. consumers were aware of the company.
This continues to be both a strength and an opportunity: While Canada Goose has increased brand awareness through its flagship stores and subsequent marketing campaigns, the company still only has seven such stores currently open. Brand awareness is still low compared with that of other luxury labels like Ralph Lauren or Coach.
You can't blame Canada Goose for being judicious with flagship store openings after watching the clothing industry close thousands of locations due to aggressive overexpansion. Perhaps brand awareness and store rollouts are not moving as fast as many investors hoped, but revenue is, and the company will continue to post strong growth rates as more consumers learn about Canada Goose.
2. Enhance our wholesale network
The second strategy for the company is to enhance its wholesale network. In the strictest sense, it appears the company is underperforming on this front. In the fiscal year ended Mar. 2016, the company reported $258 million Canadian dollars in revenue via the wholesale channel, versus CA$336.2 million in the year ended Mar. 2018.
While 14% annualized growth may seem impressive, it's nothing noteworthy compared to the stock's 290% gain. However, the company has wisely deemphasized this goal in favor of its third strategy.
3. Accelerate our e-commerce-led direct-to-consumer rollout
Canada Goose's stock has otherwise been powered by the shift in revenue away from the wholesale channel to direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales. Over the same time frame as above, the company increased DTC sales a whopping 178% per year:
| Canada Goose Revenue | FY 2016 | FY 2018 | Annualized Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale | CA$257.8 million | CA$336.2 million | 14.2% |
| DTC | CA$33.0 million | CA$255.0 million | 178.0% |
| Total | CA$290.8 million | CA$591.2 million | 42.6% |
Data source: Canada Goose's 10-K.
Thanks to this growth, the DTC channel now comprises 43.1% of all sales, versus 11.3% in fiscal 2016.
Furthermore, a shift to the DTC channel provides other benefits that often don't immediately show up on an income statement: a direct relationship with consumers, a better shopping experience, improved customer service, and the ability to quickly respond to trends with less wasted inventory.
There are reasons why Canada Goose stock is soaring -- the company is growing its top line at a 40%-plus clip, and it's becoming more profitable in the process. Although many investors are worried that the stock has rallied too far too fast, the brand is still rather obscure when compared to other luxury brands and will continue to increase awareness and visibility. If anything, the Canada Goose story has just gotten started.
