What happened
Shares of Baozun Inc (BZUN 6.18%) were surging yesterday alongside several other Chinese stocks as thawing trade tensions between the U.S. and China sent a range of Chinese stocks higher. Though there was no specific news out on Baozun, that development was enough to drive the stock up 12.8% yesterday.
Image source: Baozun.
So what
A tweet from President Trump yesterday morning seemed to be the main catalyst for the surge in Chinese stocks as the President remarked:
Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2018
Trump's positive statement on trade talks not only sent up shares of Baozun, but Alibaba (BABA 0.59%), JD.com, iQiyi, and Tencent all rose by 5% or more, and the Shanghai Composite gained nearly 3% on the news.
Chinese stocks have tended to travel in tandem as trade tensions have simmered, and in fact, these stocks have been broadly down in recent months, due in part to worries about a trade war. Baozun, for instance, is down 21% over the last three months, even including yesterday's rally, and all of the stocks listed above have fallen 18% or more during that time. Similarly, the Shanghai Composite has been sliding nearly the whole year and is down 20% year to date.
Now what
Alibaba, the leading Chinese e-commerce company, reported second-quarter earnings last night and trimmed its revenue forecast by 4%-6% citing "fluid macro-economic conditions," which seemed to refer to both the slowing Chinese economy and trade tensions with the U.S. Trump already has imposed a number of tariffs on China and has said the U.S will withdraw from the Universal Postal Union, which would hurt Chinese e-commerce sales to the U.S. by raising shipping prices.
Baozun, another Chinese e-commerce company that sells products directly to customers and provides third-party services like IT, warehousing, and distribution for multinational companies like Starbucks and Nike, could feel a similar economic impact as Alibaba.
We'll learn more when Baozun reports third-quarter earnings later this month. Analysts are expecting a 23.4% increase in revenue, to $158.3 million, and earnings per share of $0.11, up from $0.09 a year ago.
