Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Is It Finally Safe to Buy Ambarella Stock?

By Leo Sun - Jun 15, 2019 at 1:00PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The chipmaker's revenue declines are bottoming out, but it still faces plenty of daunting challenges.

Ambarella (AMBA 7.74%), the chipmaker that makes image-processing systems on a chip (SoCs) for action cameras, dash cams, security cams, drones, and other devices, is a divisive stock eliciting strong bullish and bearish attitudes among market watchers.

The bulls claim the chipmaker has a best-in-breed position in the image-processing market and that its expansion into computer vision chips will tap into the growth of the driverless car market. The bears note that its exposure to China is worrisome, that it's losing customers to rival chipmakers like Intel (INTC 1.77%), and that its stock is overvalued.

A close-up shot of a camera lens.

Image source: Getty Images.

What the bulls believe

Ambarella's recent first-quarter report initially appeared to support the bull thesis. The company's revenue fell 17% annually to $47.2 million, beating estimates by $0.2 million. Its adjusted net income plunged 93% to $0.3 million, or $0.01 per share, but still cleared expectations by $0.07. Ambarella's forecast for a decline in revenue of 15% to 18% year over year for the second quarter also indicated that its declines were finally starting to slow.

Metric

Q1 2019

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Revenue

$56.9 million

$62.5 million

$57.3 million

$51.1 million

$47.2 million

Growth (YOY)

(11%)

(13%)

(36%)

(28%)

(17%)

Data source: Ambarella quarterly reports. YOY = Year over year. 

Ambarella also authorized a new $50 million buyback program, which will last through June 2020. That's equivalent to nearly 5% of Ambarella's current enterprise value.

Ambarella also started the mass production of its second computer vision SoC, CV25, during the first quarter, and it expects to start shipments in the second quarter. It also predicts a warm reception for its new high-end H6LM camera SoC -- a low-power chipset that bundles together 4K encoding, multi-screen streaming capabilities, and cybersecurity features for security-camera makers. Ambarella expects its revenue growth to improve in the second half of the year as demand for automotive and security SoCs improves.

What the bears believe

But the bears still had plenty of reasons to tear down the stock. Ambarella's adjusted gross margin fell 220 basis points annually to 59.6%, and management expects that contraction to continue into the second quarter with an adjusted gross margin of 57% to 59%. That has been a troubling trend over the past year:

Metric

Q1 2019

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Gross margin

61.8%

61.4%

60.9%

60.6%

59.6%

Non-GAAP basis. Source: Ambarella quarterly reports.

Ambarella attributed those declines to a higher percentage of sales of lower-margin chips, especially in the Chinese surveillance-camera market. Moreover, the Trump administration could soon add Chinese surveillance-camera makers Hikvision and Dahua -- two of Ambarella's biggest customers in China -- to its trade blacklist of companies.

Ambarella also expects the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, which bars Hikvision and Dahua from selling their cameras to government agencies, to throttle its orders from both customers. Ambarella doesn't disclose how much revenue it generates per customer, but Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore recently warned that Ambarella's revenue exposure to Hikvision was in the "high teens" percentage.

Ambarella is still highly dependent on its Chinese customers -- which include automotive suppliers Baolong and Shanghai OFilm, as well as automakers Geely, Chery, SAIC Motor, Dongfeng, Changan, and BAIC. Ambarella doesn't disclose how much revenue it generates from China, but its revenue from Taiwanese original design manufacturers -- which serve a large portion of its Chinese orders -- accounted for 58% of sales last year.

A drone flies over a city.

Image source: Getty Images.

Intel also poses a massive threat to Ambarella. Its Movidius computer vision chips already won orders from Ambarella's top customers, including DJI Innovations and Hikvision, and its Mobileye computer vision chips have a big head start against Ambarella's CV chips in the driverless market.

Lastly, Ambarella trades at nearly 80 times earnings estimates -- which is a rich valuation for a company with negative revenue and earnings growth. That's probably why Ambarella's insiders sold more than 100,000 shares over the past 12 months but didn't buy a single share.

Fortune still favors the bears

Ambarella is still the preferred image-processing SoC maker for many companies, but it can't overcome its two major headwinds -- the trade war and competition from Intel -- anytime soon. Its revenue is declining, its margins are contracting, and the stock is overvalued. That toxic mix indicates that the bears are probably right about Ambarella's future.

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Ambarella, Inc. Stock Quote
Ambarella, Inc.
AMBA
$76.87 (7.74%) $5.52
Intel Corporation Stock Quote
Intel Corporation
INTC
$43.60 (1.77%) $0.76

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning service.

Stock Advisor Returns
345%
 
S&P 500 Returns
119%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 05/16/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.