With less than a week left in Tesla's (TSLA -0.11%) third quarter, many investors are likely wondering how many vehicles the electric-car maker may deliver during the period. While we won't know the exact figure until the company reports its quarterly vehicle delivery and production update early next month, there's evidence the company is well on its way to hitting a new record for quarterly deliveries.
In a leaked email (via Electrek), CEO Elon Musk told employees this week that the automaker "has a shot" at racking up 100,000 deliveries during its third quarter -- well over the record 95,356 vehicles it delivered in Q2. The figure would importantly put Tesla on track to hit its ambitious full-year guidance for 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year.
Tesla Model S, Model 3, and Model X. Image source: Tesla.
What we know
Tesla is within reach of delivering a total of 100,000 vehicles in Q2, Musk said in the leaked email to employees. But this will require the company executing well on delivery logistics.
Notably, demand doesn't seem to be an issue, as orders easily surpass the company's delivery target for the period. Net orders are "tracking to reach about 110,000" during the quarter, Musk noted. "The challenge is making sure that we have the right car variants in the right locations and rallying as much as our company resources as possible to help with the end of the quarter deliveries," the CEO said.
Staggering growth
Achieving 100,000 in total vehicle deliveries for the quarter would extend the company's incredible growth recently. Quarterly deliveries at this volume would mean that trailing-12-month deliveries for the company up are up nearly 90% year over year.
But Tesla is notably becoming increasingly reliant on continued growth in Model 3 production and deliveries in order to achieve its growth. The vehicle has been the key driver of the company's recent growth. In Tesla's second quarter, for instance, Model 3 deliveries were up 321% year over year. Combined Model S and X deliveries for the period, however, were down 21% year over year. Hitting a new record for total deliveries, therefore, will require more strong sales performance from Model 3.
If Tesla delivers 100,000 total vehicles in Q3, it would translate to 19% year-over-year growth and 5% sequential growth in vehicle deliveries. More importantly, 100,000 quarterly deliveries would put the company on track with its guidance to increase deliveries 45% to 65% year over year in 2019.
Investors should look for an update from Tesla on its vehicle deliveries by Oct. 3. The company typically reports deliveries within three calendar days following a quarter's close.
