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Why Dropbox Stock Popped 12.7% in September

By Steve Symington - Updated Oct 7, 2019 at 7:17PM

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Wall Street offered encouraging words for the cloud-storage specialist.

What happened

Shares of Dropbox (DBX 0.12%) climbed 12.7% in September, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, rebounding from a 24% decline in August as multiple analysts issued positive notes on the cloud-based storage and data-management specialist following its first analyst day and user conference since going public early last year.

Stock market data showing volatility on a colorful display.

Image source: Getty Images.

So what

Given its steep post-earnings drop in August, the stock rebounded in the first half of last month along with the broader market's rise, even resisting some of the negative volatility endured by other peers in the cloud-computing space.

But it certainly helped toward the end of September when analysts at Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB)RBC Capital, and Canaccord Genuity each issued or reaffirmed their respective buy (or equivalent) ratings on Dropbox following its Work in Progress conference in San Francisco on Sept. 25. 

Now what

With per-share price targets ranging from $30 to $35 representing hefty premiums from the current price below $20, all three analyst firms suggested Dropbox's valuation is attractive and that consensus estimates are likely too low -- particularly in light of the company's internal target for sustaining annual revenue growth in the 15% to 20% range.

Perhaps ironically, shares initially plunged in August despite Dropbox technically beating consensus estimates on both revenue and adjusted earnings, helped by what CEO Drew Houston called "another solid quarter of execution" -- though billings and deferred revenue (both key metrics for predicting growth) seemed light at the time.

It remains to be seen whether these analyst calls are correct. But if Dropbox is able to sustain its growth momentum in the coming quarters, I agree that its stock price should continue to follow suit.

Steve Symington has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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