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Why Livongo Health Stock Could Soar Even Higher

By Daniel Sparks – Jul 8, 2020 at 1:23AM

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Despite its pricey valuation, Livongo stock may still have plenty of upside left.

Shares of Livongo Health (LVGO) soared on Tuesday, jumping about 20%. The stock's gain came after the company gave investors an early glimpse into its recently ended second quarter. Revenue crushed both its own guidance and analysts' average estimates, management revealed.

The growth stock's sharp gain added to a huge run-up in Livongo's stock price recently. The stock is up a total of 269% year to date. The company, which provides a platform for helping those with chronic conditions, has impressed investors with surging revenue and improving margins as the COVID-19 pandemic helped bolster demand for its remote care.

While it may be difficult to imagine shares continuing to rise even more after such an incredible run, Livongo's business still has a huge runway ahead of it, setting the stage for more potential strong share price appreciation over the long haul.

A chart showing a stock price moving higher

Image source: Getty Images.

Revenue is skyrocketing

Livongo's better-than-expected second-quarter revenue is a perfect example of the company's uncanny momentum.

Management said on Tuesday that its second-quarter revenue will likely be between $86 million and $87 million. This is far ahead of management's previous guidance for $73 million to $75 million and analysts' average forecast for revenue of $75 million.

"The COVID-19 pandemic has only magnified the need for Livongo's solutions, which goes well beyond remote monitoring and video visits to generate consumer directed virtual care," said Livongo CEO Zane Burke in the company's press release about its better-than-expected second-quarter performance. "The largest, most innovative employers and health plans are continuing to select Livongo due to our whole person approach to care which is accelerating our growth."

Also helping growth, Burke explained, was stronger-than-expected member enrollment and member retention.

Capturing the company's incredible growth, the midpoint of this new forecast from management for its second-quarter revenue implies 111% year-over-year growth.

A massive opportunity

Of course, Livongo's soaring stock price has translated to an extremely pricey valuation for the stock. The company now has a $9 billion market capitalization with trailing-12-month revenue at just $207 million. Even more, the company still isn't profitable.

But when viewing Livongo's recent torrid revenue growth next to its huge addressable market, it's easy to see why investors are willing to pay such a steep price tag for the stock. Consider that in the U.S. alone, over 34 million people is diagnosed with diabetes -- and 500,000 new people are diagnosed with the chronic condition every year. Yet the company only had 328,000 Livongo for Diabetes members at the end of Q1.

While it wouldn't be surprising to see shares of Livongo take a breather at some point after such big gains, investors who hold onto shares over the next five years will likely see a meaningful return on investment as the company capitalizes on the enormous opportunity in front of it.

Daniel Sparks has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Livongo Health Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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