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Wall Street Tempers Nautilus Enthusiasm After Investor Update, but Still Sees 30% Upside

By Rich Duprey - Mar 19, 2021 at 12:38PM

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A lot hinges on whether workout routines have been permanently altered.

Nautilus (NLS 4.71%) believes the COVID-19 pandemic has forever changed how and where people exercise, which will allow it to grow revenue at a 10% compound annual rate for the next five years.

Wall Street, though, was underwhelmed by the guidance, and despite analysts still rating the stock a buy, took the opportunity of the company's' analyst day conference to lower their price targets.

Woman on a piece of exercise equipment

Image source: Nautilus.

Nautilus CEO Jim Barr told analysts Thursday, "There has been a structural change in the fitness industry as some portion of gym-goers have permanently shifted into home fitness and the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in its industry."

What will boost the home gym leader's business will be its transformation into a "digital forward" company where 20% of its revenue comes from digital subscriptions. Nautilus is targeting having at least 250,000 digital members by the end of fiscal 2022.

Roth Capital analyst George Kelly said that despite Nautilus making substantial progress at creating a stable business, its long-term guidance was "underwhelming" and he expected the stock to trade in a narrow range. He lowered his price target to $26 per share from $29 per share.

Similarly, Craig-Hallum analyst Steven Dyer thought Nautilus' strategic roadmap was a necessary one for it to take, but it's not going to be an easy, or cheap, route. That will cause repercussions for Nautilus stock, which he sees will leave it range-bound. Dyer also questioned whether demand for at-home fitness is as sustainable as management believes and he lowered his price target on Nautilus shares from $30 per share to $25 per share. 

The fitness company's stock closed yesterday around $19 a share, suggesting there is still at least 30% upside for Nautilus.

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