Netflix (NFLX 9.71%) investors are bracing for a volatile trading week ahead. The world's leading subscription-based streaming service will announce its first-quarter results after having posted wildly different growth rates in the previous two reports.
Netflix's late April earnings showed much slower user growth than management had forecast, which executives blamed on temporary challenges like a light content release schedule rather than rising competition from rivals like Disney (DIS +2.30%).
That explanation raises the bar for Netflix to issue an optimistic forecast for the second half of 2021 in its announcement on July 20. Let's take a look at the key metrics to follow in that report.
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Meeting low expectations
Growth expectations are low following last quarter's surprise slowdown. Netflix is aiming to add just 1 million global subscribers after gaining 4 million last quarter. The same factors that powered that weak Q1 result will affect Q2. Those include a return to more normal TV trends as people turned to other entertainment activities in the wake of the pandemic.
The big growth question is whether Netflix is feeling heat from competition like Disney's expanding streaming service. Executives said in April that these threats weren't to blame for the slow start to the year, given that engagement remained strong with existing members and growth was sluggish across many markets rather than just in the ones with new competition. Tuesday's report will mark Netflix's opportunity to show that it is still the leader in the niche.
Capital questions
The improving cash flow picture has been a big factor behind Netflix's stock price surge, and that's likely to be another highlight of this report. Ironically, the worry is that the company can't spend cash quickly enough to keep the content pipeline fully stocked. Most TV and movie production paused early last year and has only now started back up. Management is hoping to spend as much as $17 billion on content this year while marking its first year of positive cash flow.
NFLX Cash from Operations (TTM) data by YCharts
Look for a new financial metric this quarter, too: stock buyback spending. Executives started that program in Q2 after the company found plenty of room to invest in the business while paying down its debt.
The forecast for the second half
Netflix has been telling investors that the business will resume its impressive growth rate in the second half of the year, mainly thanks to the flood of new releases that will hit its servers. Tuesday's report is management's opportunity to back up those claims with hard numbers.
The company will issue a new subscriber outlook that should reflect its industry leadership position and its unusually high member loyalty. Anything less might be a reason for shareholders to worry. Meanwhile, Netflix's updated profit outlook should continue forecasting at least a 20% operating margin, assuming management is right about its ability to raise prices as user engagement rises.
The forecast for the fall and winter months might seem weak compared to the blockbuster growth the service enjoyed in 2019 and 2020. But with global membership rising further above 200 million, it should also reinforce the idea that Netflix is still in the early days of improving on its current base of just 10% of total TV screen time in the U.S. market.
