Shares of Novavax (NVAX 5.16%) were slipping 2.6% lower as of 11:35 a.m. ET on Wednesday. The company didn't report any new developments since yesterday's announcement that India had granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to COVID-19 vaccine NVX-CoV2373.
Today's decline appears to be a continuation of a downward trend that began last week. The slide was the result of waning concerns about the severity of the coronavirus omicron variant and waxing concerns that Novavax won't complete its filing for U.S. EUA of its COVID-19 vaccine by year end.
Governments aren't likely to reduce their vaccination efforts, regardless of the impact of the omicron variant. However, there are legitimate questions about how frequently boosters will be needed beyond 2022, if they're needed at all. The answers to those questions directly affect Novavax's future prospects.
As for Novavax's planned U.S. EUA filing, the clock is definitely ticking for the company to meet its year-end goal. But Novavax announced as recently as Tuesday that it still expects to submit the complete package to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) by the end of the year.
You'd think that management wouldn't have reiterated this timeline if there were reasons to suspect yet another delay. If Novavax does push back its U.S. EUA filing, its executives will rightfully be raked over the coals. However, as long as the company completes its U.S. filing relatively soon, the impact to its business of a delay will be minimal.
There are still two full days remaining for Novavax to file for U.S. EUA of its COVID-19 vaccine. Will the vaccine stock rebound if that submission is completed this week? Probably to some extent.
Ultimately, though, Novavax will need to ship the doses to meet its supply agreement commitments to generate revenue. As the actual cash flows in, the stock should move higher.