If you like history, you probably know the famous words of Gen. Douglas MacArthur after being ordered to evacuate the Philippines during World War 2: "I shall return." If you couldn't care less about history, perhaps you're familiar with Arnold Schwarzenegger's line in The Terminator movie: "I'll be back."
Some Shiba Inu (SHIB 2.43%) holders could be having similar thoughts about the beaten-down token. You can even find stalwarts who believe that a massive surge is in store, with a realistic potential for SHIB to hit $0.01.
How long could it take to reach that level? Here's the most likely time frame for Shiba Inu to reach $0.01.
What it will take
Before we get to the most likely timeframe, let's look at what it will take for Shiba Inu to reach $0.01. The current price of the token is $0.000011. SHIB must lose a couple of zeros to reach the goal. Specifically, the meme coin will have to soar by a little over 909 times.
Loyal members of the SHIB Army could be thinking, "That's nothing." After all, Shiba Inu's price skyrocketed more than 665,000 times in less than 10 months last year.
They would also probably point to several catalysts that could help drive SHIB's price higher. For example, the new burning portal on ShibaSwap should reduce the number of tokens in circulation. The launch of the Shibarium layer-2 solution expected this year will slash transaction costs and potentially attract new investors to Shiba Inu.
Over the longer term, the launch of the Shiba Inu metaverse could transform the Shiba Inu ecosystem. There will undoubtedly be other new innovations on the way within the next few years as well that could boost SHIB's price.
And the answer is...
So what's the most likely timeframe for Shiba Inu to reach $0.01? The cold, hard truth is that the answer is... never.
To be clear, I'm not saying there's no way that Shiba Inu could climb to $0.01. I do think it's within the realm of possibility. But we're talking about probability instead of possibility here. If we objectively assigned probabilities to the different potential periods for SHIB's price to reach $0.01, "never" is going to have the highest probability.
Most assets -- cryptocurrencies, stocks, bonds, or anything else -- never deliver a return of 909 times. The fact that Shiba Inu has generated a much higher return than that in the past doesn't make the challenge any less daunting.
I know that it's easy to get fired up by analysts who predict that Shiba Inu could soar to $0.01 or even higher levels. One recently stated that the token could hit $5 by 2050. However, all of these scenarios are hypothetical ones that are highly unlikely to play out.
For example, many Shiba Inu investors hope that aggressive burning will cause the token's price to take off. It very well could. By my calculations, though, the number of coins in circulation would have to be reduced by over 99.75% for SHIB to reach $0.01. Top Shiba Inu developer Archangel has stated that even burning 90% of tokens isn't going to happen.
A better question
My personal view is that setting an arbitrary goal for Shiba Inu such as $0.01 or $5 is a waste of time. It's kind of like the medieval scholars who debated about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. The best answer, in my opinion, is: "Who cares?"
A much more important question to ponder is whether or not Shiba Inu will deliver solid gains going forward. The chances that Shiba Inu bounces back strongly after its recent slump are no doubt exceedingly greater than the probability that the token ever reaches $0.01.
Gen. MacArthur and Schwarzenegger's Terminator character fulfilled their promises to come back. Maybe Shiba Inu will, too.