Fears about the pandemic are subsiding. As a result, many stocks that did well during that period have been crashing heavily. Some businesses did well due to stay-at-home orders and a surge in online shopping. However, now that there's been a return to normal, investors are less willing to pay a premium for those stocks.
Two examples of that trend are Novavax (NVAX 6.72%) and Shopify (SHOP 6.17%). Novavax went from a relatively unknown stock to a popular COVID-19 vaccine maker that investors saw as having great potential. Shopify, meanwhile, hit record-breaking numbers that boosted it's already strong growth numbers.
Today, however, their share prices are both down some 80% from their 52-week highs. Are these stocks deals at their current prices?
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1. Novavax
Novavax didn't have any products authorized for use before the pandemic. In 2019, its revenue totaled just $18.7 million from grants and royalties alone. As the company began working on a COVID-19 vaccine, those figures jumped significantly.
In 2020, revenue skyrocketed to $475.6 million -- and to $1.1 billion in 2021. In Novavax's most recent quarter for the three-month period ended March 31, the company finally began reporting sales from its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373. Sales of $585.6 million made up the bulk of the company's top line, which totaled $704 million.
However, the vaccine hasn't yet obtained approval from the Food and Drug Administration. The revenue it's generating today comes from other countries that have approved the vaccine.
A lack of approval in the U.S. has generated some bearishness in the stock, with investors doubtful whether the vaccine will get approved. And even if it does, there may be limited potential for it to generate revenue with vaccination rates high and the economy looking to return to normal. Demand simply may not be as strong as it was during the omicron surge earlier this year.
Shares of Novavax have fallen 61% this year, which is far steeper than the S&P 500's 13% decline. Although the healthcare stock is now 85% away from its 52-week high, it's still not an overwhelming buy. That's because there's likely to be a sharp drop-off in vaccine-related revenue beyond this year as demand wanes.
The company has products that are in phase 3 trials that could make up for the loss in revenue, including its vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus ResVax, which could hit $2 billion in sales at its peak. But it still hasn't crossed the finish line, and there isn't any guarantee it will.
While Novavax isn't a no-brainer buy, it's still far-less riskier than other biotech stocks as it has $1.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents on its books. That helps buy it some time to develop products. If you're OK with taking on some risk, Novavax could be a worthwhile investment at its more modest valuation.
2. Shopify
Shopify's growth rate in 2020 exploded. The company, which gives anyone the opportunity to easily setup an online store and sell their goods online, reported sales of $2.9 billion that year. That was a massive 86% increase in revenue compared to 2019. Previously, its growth rate was slower with 2019's sales of $1.6 billion rising at a more modest rate of 47%. Even this past year, revenue totaled $4.6 billion and still grew at a higher rate of 57%.
The company's management announced earlier this year that its growth rate will be lower in 2022, which led to a sell-off in the stock's price. However, the reality is that it wasn't likely for Shopify to continue growing at these high rates after amassing such impressive gains over the past two years due to lockdowns and more people buying online.
Down 73% in 2022, the stock has effectively given back all the gains it generated during the past two years. It's now trading around where it was in March 2020, when the World Health Organization officially declared it a pandemic.
Shopify's first-quarter results this year weren't great with the company growing at a rate of just 22% for the period ended March 31. The earnings report definitely spooked some investors, especially with the company posting a mammoth $1.5 billion loss during the period. However, Shopify's still a stock that can rebound from recent results in the long run because online shopping will continue to grow, regardless of what happens in the short term.
Down close to 80% from its 52-week high, Shopify could be a bargain of a buy right now.
