Things didn't work out for my "three stocks to avoid" column last week. The three stocks I thought were going to lose to the market for the week -- Wayfair, TrueCar, and Tesla Motors -- rose 16%, climbed 2%, and fell 3%, respectively, averaging out to a 5% increase.
The S&P 500 experienced a 0.4% move higher. I was wrong, as the average return of the three of the investments I figured would fare worse beat the market. I have still been right in 27 of the past 42 weeks.
Where do I go to next? I see AMTD Digital (HKD -1.58%), Roblox (RBLX 2.43%), and Coinbase (COIN 7.66%) as stocks you may want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.
The past month has been wild -- if not outright ridiculous -- for AMTD Digital. The one-stop platform in Asia for digital solutions went public at $7.80 in mid-July. It opened at $13, and it has only shot higher. Last week alone we saw the stock open at $335.50, hit a high of $2,555.30 a day later, and close at $721.23 on Friday.
Keep in mind that with 185 million shares outstanding we were talking about a market cap of $472 billion at last week's peak. There are only eight U.S.-listed stocks with higher market caps, and those are all substantially large blue chip businesses. AMTD putting out a press release early last week -- perplexed by the stock's buoyancy -- didn't cool the feeding frenzy.
AMTD Digital generated just $25.2 million in revenue in fiscal 2021, and revenue growth has been flattish through the first 10 months of fiscal 2022. This is a real business, but the valuation is off the charts right now.
Roblox has captured the hearts and time of its young player base, but the once blistering growth is starting to slow. Roblox saw its business gains accelerate when we were hunkering down at home during the early stages of the pandemic. Revenue went from rising 56% in 2019 to 82% in 2020 and 108% last year. The year-over-year increases are starting to slow dramatically, decelerating for four consecutive quarters.
Things don't appear to be getting any better with Roblox heading into its second-quarter report on Tuesday afternoon. The first quarter was rough, with Roblox posting its first sequential decline in revenue as a public company. Average bookings per daily active user also hit a post-pandemic low. After posting larger than expected losses in back-to-back quarters Roblox has a lot to prove this week.
Shares of Coinbase have more than doubled since bottoming out in May. Is the rally warranted? It's true that cryptocurrencies have started to bounce back after a brutal drawdown earlier this year. Coinbase is also in much better financial shape than the other more aggressive platforms that buckled under the weight of their own risk-taking practices.
Like Roblox, Coinbase will be reporting fresh financial results shortly after Tuesday's market close. It won't be pretty. Analysts see revenue cut by more than half from prior year levels. All Wall Street pros following the leading crypto exchange are bracing for the once high-margin Coinbase to clock in with a quarterly loss.
It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in AMTD Digital, Roblox, and Coinbase this week.