LVMH Moet Hennessy (LVMUY +0.15%) (LVMHF 2.27%), the world's largest luxury goods maker, just announced solid third-quarter results. For the period ended Sept. 30, revenue rose 27% year over year to 19.76 billion euros ($19.21 billion). And for the first nine months, revenue was up 28% to 56.49 billion euros ($54.93 billion).
Those robust growth rates indicate that LVMH, which owns 75 major brands across five major categories -- wines and spirits, fashion and leather, perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewelry, and selective retailing -- remains resistant to inflation and other macroeconomic headwinds.
That isn't surprising since economic downturns generally don't affect LVMH's affluent customers as much as middle-class shoppers. It had also previously bounced back quickly from the pandemic, which throttled its sales throughout 2020 as it temporarily closed down many of its brick-and-mortar stores.
Image source: Louis Vuitton.
Analysts expect LVMH to continue growing its revenue at a compound annual rate of 12% from 2021 to 2024, and its earnings per share (EPS) to increase at a rate of 13%. Those estimates indicate it's still a solid long-term investment, and its stock still seems reasonably valued at 20 times next year's earnings.
So why did LVMH's stock still shed more than 25% of its value this year? Let's review the four main reasons to see if it's still worth buying.
1. Reverberations from Russia's war on Ukraine
LVMH is one of the largest companies in Europe, and its main shares are listed in Paris. Russia's invasion of Ukraine this February, which sparked a war that hasn't ended yet, has been throttling Europe's economic growth with higher energy and food prices. That pressure has been weighing down the major European indexes.
2. Exchange rate issues for U.S. investors
The rampant inflation that occurred after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused many countries, including the U.S., to raise their interest rates. That shift was particularly painful for U.S. investors, who had grown accustomed to low interest rates in the decade following the Great Recession.
Rising interest rates also strengthened the U.S. dollar against the euro and other foreign currencies. This caused LVMH's U.S.-listed American depositary receipts (ADR), which trade in dollars, to drop faster than their underlying Paris-based shares, which trade in euros and declined only about 13% this year.
OTC: LVMUY
Key Data Points
3. Supply chain issues
LVMH struggled with several supply chain issues in the first nine months of 2022. It grappled with new COVID-19 lockdowns in China, logistics problems, including a shortage of glass bottles, for its wine and spirits segment in the U.S., and a decision to stop sourcing diamonds from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
These disruptions will probably persist as China sticks with its zero-COVID policy, gas prices remain high, and the Russo-Ukrainian war drags on.
4. Other concerns about the Asian market
Lastly, investors are concerned about LVMH's loss of momentum in Asia (excluding Japan), which accounted for 32% of its top line in the first nine months of 2022.
Its sales in the region rose just 2% organically during that period, mainly because of the zero-COVID lockdowns in China and other regional restrictions across Asia. And it trailed far behind the high double-digit growth rates of its other three core markets -- the U.S., Japan, and Europe.
That's worrisome, because LVMH previously relied heavily on its growth in Asia to carry it through the Great Recession. If it can't restart that growth engine before the next recession starts, it could suffer a much tougher slowdown.
On the bright side, LVMH's 6% organic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) in the third quarter represented a significant acceleration from the region's 8% decline in the second quarter. Those early signs of improvement indicate that its Chinese market could gradually recover if the country finally ends its zero-COVID restrictions.
LVMH is still a solid investment
LVMH faces near-term headwinds, but it's still a great long-term investment. Its five core businesses all grew at double-digit rates in the first nine months of 2022, and its diverse mix of high-end brands -- including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, Tag Heuer, and Hennessy -- should still insulate it from a major recession. The euro should also stabilize against the U.S. dollar once inflation is reined in, which could make LVMH's ADR shares a lot more appealing to American investors again.
