What happened
Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN +7.59%) enjoyed a fine Friday on the market, following the release of surprisingly robust third-quarter results. The cryptocurrency trading exchange's stock surged as much as 13.7% higher in the early morning, backing down to a milder gain of 6.5% by 12:30 p.m. ET.
So what
Coinbase's net revenue fell 53% year over year due to dramatically lower crypto-trading activity, landing at $576 million. The year-ago period's earnings of $1.62 per share swung to a $2.43 net loss per share, also based on diminished interest in cryptocurrency trades. Your average analyst was officially expecting a loss of $2.40 per share on revenue in the neighborhood of $654 million, so the reported figures fell short of expectations across the board.
However, management doubled down on the existing full-year guidance of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of less than $500 million. Investors interpreted this confidence in previously stated goals as a good sign for cryptocurrency trading in the fourth quarter.
NASDAQ: COIN
Key Data Points
Now what
Management also said that Coinbase is approaching the current quarter "with a conservative bias and assuming that the current macroeconomic headwinds will persist and possibly intensify." The same mantra was repeated in the context of expected market conditions in 2023.
In other words, the market could throw a few more haymakers at Coinbase over the next few quarters, but the company is expecting them and is prepared to roll with the punches. In light of this attitude, Coinbase has no reason to set up difficult guidance targets and investors should see them more as a bottom-end limit to how low the crypto-trading market could go.
Positive surprises should be common under these circumstances, while actual results missing even these modest targets should be judged harshly. As a Coinbase shareholder myself, I hope that the crypto winter will thaw next year and lead to more bullish than bearish surprises in 2023, but only time will tell. Lawmakers and regulators have some heavy lifting to do before the crypto ice can truly start to melt.
