Online pet products retailer Chewy (CHWY 1.50%) has been a roller-coaster ride for investors since hitting the public market in the summer of 2019. Share prices rose from $35 to $120 in the first 20 months, but it has been all downhill from there. Chewy's stock is back right where it started three-and-a-half years ago.
This could be the beginning of a permanent downtrend -- or a fantastic time to pick up shares of this high-octane growth stock on the cheap. Are we looking at a buying window for Chewy's stock?
Let's find out.
This good boy looks like a good buy
Investors have many reasons to take a closer look at Chewy. The stock has surged and swooned, but Chewy's sales are still skyrocketing, and the bottom line has been seen sniffing around the break-even point in recent quarters.
CHWY Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
At the same time, Chewy's is expanding its market reach as we speak. The company recently partnered up with computer-driven insurance carrier Lemonade (LMND -2.56%) to offer a broader selection of pet insurance plans. The Careplus insurance product is currently available in 31 states through a year-old deal with Trupanion (TRUP -0.66%). The Lemonade agreement is going nationwide with a more automated approach to insurance sign-ups and claims.
So the company's financial platform is healthy and hale, and Chewy also has serious plans to further future growth. What's not to love?
But I'm not howling over Chewy
Well, Chewy's bears have a couple of solid talking points, too.
The stock price started its long swan dive when Chewy's torrential sales growth started to slow down. That moment should be easy to spot in this chart:
CHWY Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts
That's a sobering trend for a company whose stock is valued almost entirely on its ability to grow its sales. Chewy is not profitable today. Its operating margins are often printed in red ink and the company has burned $104 million of free cash over the last four quarters.
And the stock isn't cheap even though it lost all of its gains from 2020. Chewy shares are changing hands at the nosebleed-inducing valuation of 127 times the company's book value and 500 times forward earnings estimates.
Many things have to work out just right for Chewy in order to justify these lofty prices, and many investors don't expect it to happen: 41% of Chewy's market float is borrowed by short-sellers right now.
You should hold your horses (or dogs)
In spite of Chewy's promising long-term prospects, risk-averse investors are barking up the wrong tree with this stock. And even if you're ready to face high share prices and significant market risks, you might want to wait a while before fetching some Chewy shares.
The stock is priced for absolute perfection and could plunge much further before shifting into a sustained recovery. Chewy is arguably a falling knife, at least over the next few quarters. So this investment might serve you well in the long run even from today's sky-high prices, but you'll probably be even better off if you let the overheated price tag cool down a bit first.
In short, I don't think you should take a big bite of Chewy's stock right now. Chewy is a good boy, but there are plenty of even gooder growth stocks with more reasonable valuations in this market.
