Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 2.20%) and Intel (INTC +1.15%) have been sold off brutally on the market this year as the slump in the personal computer (PC) market has caught up with the chipmakers, both of which reported disappointing third-quarter results recently that didn't live up to the market's expectations.
AMD's Q3 numbers missed Wall Street's expectations and its guidance points toward a further slowdown in its growth in the fourth quarter. Intel's revenue and earnings, on the other hand, were also down significantly thanks to a terrible performance from its two largest business segments. Not surprisingly, shares of AMD and Intel are down 56% and 45%, respectively, in 2022.
NASDAQ: AMD
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However, one of these semiconductor stocks could regain its mojo and turn its fortunes around sooner than the other. Let's see which one that could be.
The PC slump hurt AMD, but Intel faces bigger problems
AMD's third-quarter revenue was up "just" 29% to $5.6 billion last quarter. The 40% year-over-year decline in the company's client segment revenue, which includes sales of processors used in desktop and notebook computers, played spoilsport and kept AMD from meeting its original revenue target of $6.7 billion. The chipmaker's earnings also dropped 8% year over year to $0.67 per share.
The PC slump is going to weigh on AMD's performance in the current quarter as well. The company expects just 14% year-over-year revenue growth this quarter thanks to the weakness in the client and the gaming markets. Analysts expect AMD to deliver muted growth in 2023 as well, forecasting an increase of just 6% in revenue and 4% in earnings per share.
Intel, however, fared worse in the third quarter. Chipzilla's revenue fell 15% year over year to $15.3 billion, while adjusted earnings were down 59% to $0.59 per share. The PC market's weakness led to a 17% year-over-year decline in Intel's revenue from its largest segment -- client computing group -- to $8.1 billion.
Intel's other key pillar, the data center and artificial intelligence group, also crumbled as the segment's revenue fell a whopping 27% year over year to $4.2 billion. It is worth noting that AMD's data center business recorded an impressive year-over-year growth of 45% last quarter to $1.6 billion, driven by the healthy demand for its Epyc server processors.
So, while both of Intel's biggest businesses misfired, AMD was able to hold its ground in the data center business. That's not surprising, as AMD has been consistently taking market share away from Intel in data center processors. The bad news for Intel is that AMD is expected to corner a bigger share of the server processor market in 2023.
Market research firm TrendForce estimates that AMD's server market share could increase to 22% in 2023 from 15% this year. Intel itself is to blame for its market share decline as the chip giant has failed to start the mass production of its next-generation Sapphire Rapids processors. These processors were supposed to be made widely available to customers in 2022, but Intel has now shifted the timeline to 2023.
NASDAQ: INTC
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AMD's fourth-generation Epyc server processors, on the other hand, have already been selected by major server OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) and are all set to hit the market. So, it won't be surprising to see AMD corner a bigger share of the server market in 2023, and the bad news for Intel investors is that it doesn't expect to start gaining market share in this space until 2025.
This explains why analysts expect Intel's top and bottom lines to contract in 2023, unlike AMD, which is expected to deliver growth despite the headwinds.
Investors have an easy decision to make
Intel is gunning for a turnaround, but it faces a stiff challenge from its rivals in the server and client processor markets. Wall Street isn't optimistic about a comeback by Intel, as its earnings are expected to shrink at an annual pace of 20% over the next five years. AMD is expected to fare better, with an estimated annual earnings growth of 17% for the next five years.
That's not surprising, as AMD's diversified end markets and its share gains against Intel should help it overcome the near-term challenges that it is facing. Moreover, with AMD stock trading at 15 times forward earnings, which is identical to Intel's forward price-to-earnings ratio, buying the former looks like a no-brainer since it is built for growth while Intel's struggles are expected to continue.
