The stock market -- especially the growth sector -- is experiencing tons of volatility at the moment. Starting back in early 2021, many high-growth software and technology stocks started falling from all-time highs.
For example, top growth fund Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK -0.26%) peaked in February 2021 and has been in steady decline since, with its shares down 68% over the past year. This has been typical of growth stocks over this period with many down 50% or more.
It might not feel like it is possible, but eventually stocks will start to go up again. Here are two growth stocks to buy before the next big rally.
1. Autodesk: Software for the infrastructure decade
My first pick is Autodesk (ADSK -2.00%), a leading software provider for the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) markets. Through multiple acquisitions and the steady tailwind of digitization within the AEC industry, Autodesk has been able to grow its revenue consistently over many decades. This should continue with Autodesk's core design products like AutoCAD and Revit driving steady top-line growth.
But the company also has new and innovative products that should help accelerate growth. For example, in manufacturing and mechanical engineering, Fusion 360 is winning many customers for Autodesk through its flexible cloud-based platform. Released only a few years ago, Fusion 360 already has 205,000 paying subscribers, and grew its revenue at 107% annually from its fiscal 2019 to 2022. The product is only a small portion of Autodesk's total business today, but with how fast it is growing revenue, Fuson 360 could become a meaningful revenue driver three to five years from now.
Second, Autodesk is moving downmarket in construction with software products for people working at job sites. This is called the Autodesk Construction Cloud. It was launched a few years ago, but is already growing like a weed. Last quarter, monthly active users (MAUs) on its core Autodesk Build application grew 45% quarter over quarter, which should translate roughly with revenue growth. The construction market is one of the least digitized areas of the economy, providing a multibillion-dollar opportunity for Autodesk.
Autodesk shares are down 33% in the past year and trade at a market capitalization of $45 billion. This fiscal year, management is guiding for the business to generate a touch over $2 billion in free cash flow, giving the stock a forward price-to-free cash flow ratio of 22.7, or right around the market average. For a business with a strong track record of growth and tons of optionality with its new software programs, I think Autodesk is a great stock to pick up before the next big market rally.
2. Spotify: All things digital audio
Spotify (SPOT -1.49%) may operate in a completely different industry than Autodesk (music and audio streaming), but it has a similar setup for its business over the next decade. Like Autodesk, it has a durable subscription business in its premium music offering, which had grown to 195 million paying users around the globe as of the end of last quarter. Investors should expect this segment to steadily grow as more and more people transition to music streaming from analog radio this decade.
Outside of music streaming, Spotify is the leading podcast player worldwide, a business it only entered with serious intentions less than five years ago. Over the last couple of years it has acquired multiple studios and podcast distribution platforms, while also signing dozens of deals with content makers like the Joe Rogan Experience. The number of users listening to podcasts on Spotify continues to grow each quarter, which isalso attracting new users to start listening to music on the service.
To monetize podcasts, Spotify has built a dynamic advertising marketplace that connects advertisements with podcast content. This is a small portion of the business today as it was only launched back in 2021, but it could help accelerate Spotify's overall revenue growth in the next few years. Over the long term, management thinks that advertising could reach 30% to 40% of Spotify's overall revenue compared to under 15% today.
Spotify's stock has gotten walloped in 2022 with shares down 72% this year. Shareholders are clearly nervous about the company's prospects right now, but at a market cap of just $15 billion, the stock looks incredibly cheap to me. The company has generated $12.2 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, and has a clear path to consistently grow this number over the next decade.
Once it stops reinvesting so heavily for growth, management thinks Spotify can achieve profit margins of 10%, which would equate to $1.22 billion in income at current levels. Compared to a market cap of $15 billion, this looks rather cheap, and is why I think now is the time to hop on the Spotify train before the next bull market rally.
