The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into bear territory during 2022, ending the year with a decline of 33%. Wounded tech investors might be pleased to learn that 2023 could be a booming year for the index if history is any guide. That's because, since its inception in 1985, the Nasdaq-100 has only fallen two years in a row on one occasion -- the period between 2000 and 2002, otherwise known as the dot-com tech bust.
Historically, in the first positive year following a loss, the Nasdaq-100 returned between 37% and 64%, or an average of 51% across the four instances in 1991, 2003, 2009, and 2019. To be clear, investors will have to grapple with a few hurdles in 2023 before they see long-lasting gains, like elevated inflation and rising interest rates. But some of those challenges have begun to resolve, and the Nasdaq-100 is already up 4.9% in January, suggesting a great start.
If the tech index does have a blockbuster year as history suggests, here are five stocks that stand to benefit from the recovery.
1. Microsoft
Microsoft (MSFT +1.14%) is one of the safest bets on Wall Street and gets praise from analysts and retail investors alike. That's because the company has a track record of success spanning more than three decades and has crushed the return of the broader stock market since its initial public offering (IPO) in 1986.
NASDAQ: MSFT
Key Data Points
Microsoft has billions of customers using its legacy software products like the Windows operating system and the Office 365 document suite, but its business is now more diverse than ever. It has a fast-growing cloud services segment led by its Azure platform, which is ranked in the top two in the industry. It also holds a leadership position in gaming through its Xbox brand, which could expand further if the company's $69 billion acquisition of development studio Activision Blizzard passes regulatory scrutiny.
Overall, Microsoft could deliver a whopping $212 billion in revenue during fiscal 2023 (ending June 30), which is a 7.1% increase over fiscal 2022. But this company is always thinking about the future, so keep an eye on its planned $10 billion equity purchase of OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT.
2. Apple
Apple (AAPL +1.29%) makes some of the most popular consumer electronics in the world and, like Microsoft, is a phenomenal long-term success story loved by a lengthy list of investing giants that includes Warren Buffett. Apple is coming off another successful product launch in September, where it unveiled its flagship range of iPhone 14 smartphones, plus next-generation accessories like the Watch Ultra and AirPods wireless headphones. These add-ons to the iPhone ecosystem have become multibillion-dollar revenue generators on their own, and now rumors are swirling that Apple is about to tackle the next frontier -- virtual/augmented reality -- later this year.
Despite the company having a tough 2022 as consumers pulled back on their spending, it still managed to deliver record-high revenue of $394 billion for the fiscal year (ended Sept. 24). Its services segment, which includes subscriptions like Apple Music, Apple News, and iCloud, was the star growth driver once again.
With Apple stock down 25% from its all-time high, this is a rare opportunity to buy America's largest company by market cap at a discount.
3. Zscaler
Cybersecurity powerhouse Zscaler's (ZS -3.40%) stock has collapsed by 70% since hitting its all-time high in November 2021, but its business had a spectacular 2022. That's because corporate executives named cyber risk the top threat to their revenue last year in a survey conducted by PwC, and thus continued to invest heavily in protection.
Zscaler is the developer of zero-trust technology, which is designed to protect networks by treating all accessors as hostile. When an employee tries to enter their company's network, Zscaler's Zero Trust Exchange verifies their identity by going beyond login credentials and analyzing the user's location, device, and role within the organization to make sure that the user is supposed to be there.
NASDAQ: ZS
Key Data Points
In fiscal 2022 (ended July 31), Zscaler delivered $1.09 billion in revenue, which was a 62% jump year over year. It was the fastest rate of growth since the company went public in 2018, even in the face of a weak economy. The company expects to follow up the result with more than $1.52 billion in revenue in fiscal 2023.
Zscaler stock might be trading down steeply, but the strength of its business suggests it could be one of the first to soar higher if the Nasdaq-100 recovers.
4. Nvidia
Nvidia (NVDA -1.29%) is one of the world's leading producers of advanced semiconductors (computer chips). Some of the incredible progress being made in areas like artificial intelligence (AI) wouldn't be possible without the hardware that Nvidia develops, and it's often referred to as a pioneer of such technologies as a result.
The company's gaming segment -- once its largest source of revenue -- struggled recently as consumers spend less money on big-ticket items like computers. But Nvidia's data center business has picked up the slack, and it has the potential to drive the entire company forward over the next few years as further advancements in machine learning and AI foster demand for advanced chips. The data center is no longer a place to simply store information; it has become a central training ground for AI models and Nvidia is at the forefront.
But there's one other part of Nvidia's business investors should watch long-term. That's the automotive segment, where its Drive platform has been adopted by at least 35 of the world's largest car manufacturers. Drive is an end-to-end hardware and software solution for car makers that want to install fully autonomous self-driving capabilities into their vehicles.
Nvidia is a quintessential company of the future with the potential to supercharge any stock portfolio in the long run.
5. Amazon
Amazon (AMZN -1.10%) is another company suffering from a drop in consumer spending, because e-commerce still makes up over 80% of its total revenue. But Amazon is set to emerge from this difficult economic period a much leaner business, as it has shuttered some of its loss-making start-up projects and trimmed its workforce.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
The company does have diverse revenue streams, though, and its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform is at the top of what could be a $1.5 trillion industry by 2030 (according to Grand View Research). Plus, it has a booming advertising business that sells spots on its flagship website, Amazon.com, which attracts 2.7 billion visitors a month. But opportunities in that area could expand through its Prime streaming service, and its growing portfolio of live sports rights.
When Amazon reports its 2022 full-year results later this month, the company is expected to have generated over $510 billion in revenue. It would be the first year it has passed the half-trillion-dollar milestone.
Much like Microsoft and Apple, Amazon has delivered outsize returns for investors compared to the broader stock market since it went public in 1997. There's no reason to think it will stop over the long term, and with the stock down 48% from its all-time high, this is a rare opportunity to buy at a steep discount.
