Three very different companies are each finding a way to grow. So I thought it would be interesting to contrast the growth prospects at agriculture science company Corteva (CTVA 0.29%), engineering-simulation software company Ansys (ANSS +0.00%), and Google owner Alphabet (GOOG 0.76%) (GOOGL 0.33%). They have all been sold off on fears of an economic slowdown, yet they all benefit from underlying growth trends that will make them stronger businesses coming out of any recession. Whether it's operational and administrative (Corteva), end market (Ansys), or end market and operational (Alphabet), all three are set to grow over the long term. Here's the lowdown.
1. Corteva has many growth levers
Usually, when investors think about growth companies, they think of soaring revenue dragging earnings higher. But there's more to it than that with Corteva.
The company's investment case rests on growing its revenue line, cutting costs to improve margins, and reducing the net royalties it pays other companies. As such, management believes it's on track to improve margins for earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from 18.5% in 2022 to a range of 21% to 23% by 2025.
NYSE: CTVA
Key Data Points
To get there, Corteva will invest roughly 8% of its sales in research and development of new products (new product sales in crop protection increased 30% in 2022) and increase market share with essential products like its Enlist soybeans. For reference, Enlist's share of U.S. soybean acres planted is expected to grow from 45% in 2022 to 60% by 2025.
Enlist is an example of how Corteva is growing its share of sales of products with its technology, resulting in reduced net royalties paid (the plan is to cut net royalties by $250 million from 2022 to 2025).
Lastly, management plans to generate savings of $400 million in sales, general, and administrative costs by 2025.
So far, so good, and the recent fourth-quarter earnings presentations confirmed it was on target. Enlist is expected to hit a 55% share in the U.S., and net royalty payments are forecast to be cut by $100 million in 2023.
And with farmers' income expected to stay relatively high in 2023, the outlook for continued earnings growth for Corteva looks excellent.
2. Ansys: No simulated growth here
The engineering-simulation software company's earnings story is one of headline growth. In this case, it's Ansys' annual contract revenue (ACV). This is defined as the annualized value of its maintenance, perpetual license, and lease contracts, and other work that is starting or having an anniversary date in the period.
NASDAQ: ANSS
Key Data Points
Management expects its growth in ACV and cash flow to outpace revenue growth in the future due to an increasing amount of subscription leases (rather than perpetual licenses) and a high degree of its ACV coming from recurring ACV (81%) rather than nonrecurring ACV.
Overall, Ansys' growth prospects are driven by a combination of growth in traditional uses of its simulation software (one example includes the complex simulation of aerodynamics on a Formula 1 racing car) and, more importantly, development in new and future uses of its technology.
Given the explosion in digitization in the industrial sector and the ability to garner practical insights from engineering simulations (for example, to improve the efficiency of a gas turbine or jet engine), the opportunity for long-term growth is significant.
3. Don't count out Alphabet just yet
There has been excess rhetoric around the "threat" to Google from competitors using artificial intelligence (AI) to power search, and the miserly 1% growth in its most recent quarter. But Alphabet is still a growth business generating vast amounts of cash flow.
NASDAQ: GOOG
Key Data Points
When adjusted for constant currency, Alphabet's full-year revenue growth was 14%, and fourth-quarter 2022 revenue growth was 7%. Wall Street analysts are expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2023. That would be a good result in what's supposed to be a trough year for growth, given rising interest rates and pressure on advertising budgets.
Meanwhile, Google Cloud continues to grow revenue and scale up as it marches toward profitability. As for search, Google is also developing AI and has invested hundreds of millions in the technology. It's not about to give up its search crown just yet, and with Wall Street expecting an incredible $71 billion in free cash flow from Alphabet in 2023 (equivalent to 5.8% of its market cap), the stock looks like a good value.
