There are only five companies in the $1 trillion market cap club as of this writing, making it one of the most exclusive on the planet. Market cap is something that changes all the time and can drastically shift in a short period. However, most stocks will experience large movement over time as their stock prices move. 

For a stock to be worth $1 trillion 10 years from now, it will either be a high-growth stock or already be worth several hundred-billion dollars today. One stock in the latter category that seems a likely candidate is financial powerhouse Visa (V -0.23%). It's already almost half-way there.

Why Visa is a no-brainer for growth

Visa has developed an almost impenetrable network for credit card processing. Although there are other big names in the business that have carved out their own niche in the industry, notably Mastercard and American Express, it's not likely that either of these could displace Visa as the biggest.

Incidentally, shares of all three of these are owned by Warren Buffett, which says a lot about his opinion of this kind of business. Visa and its peers operate in an industry that has a simple recurring-revenue model and straightforward growth opportunities as well as high profit margins.

Visa itself has a moat based on its size, bank partnerships, merchant network of more than 80 million businesses, and commitment to innovation. 

It powers 4.1 billion cards globally and processed more than $14 trillion in trailing-12-month payment volume, making it the largest player in the industry. It was an early adopter, and creator, of digital payments technology, and it sits comfortably both as a blue-chip financial company and a fresh fintech.

Investors love Visa because it grows along with the economy. When the economy is in good shape, shoppers spend more, and Visa benefits. That happens most of the time.

Is Visa facing any challenges?

The flip side is that Visa can suffer when the economy worsens. It had wide declines at the beginning of the pandemic despite customer spending on essentials and e-commerce. However, not only has it recovered, it has also continued to post robust performance even as inflation has hurt spending. Revenue increased 11% in its fiscal 2023 second quarter (ended March 31), and earnings per share increased a whopping 20%.

It could also face challenges from emerging payments technologies. As services such as Apple's Apple Pay rise in usage, there's the potential that disruptors could step into Visa's territory. This seems very unlikely right now, though, because Visa typically partners with most of the same companies and fuels their technology. 

In fact, new Chief Executive Officer Ryan McInerney, who took the reins in February, attributed Visa's phenomenal second-quarter performance to the "continued focus on our growth levers: consumer payments, new flows, and value-added services." Visa's wide moat covers its unbeatable consumer payments systems, and its new technology and partnerships create value-added services that bring in new business.

The road to $1 trillion is paved with credit card swipes

Visa has a market cap of about $475 billion. To reach $1 trillion by 2033, it has to slightly more than double over the next 10 years. Visa stock gained 465% during the past 10 years -- much more than a doubling -- so it's not hard to imagine that happening.

But let's take a more practical look at how that could play out. The stock trades at less than 32 times trailing-12-month earnings, which is a little lower than its 10-year average. Keeping that constant, doubling market cap entails doubling its current net income from $15 billion to $30 billion. Since net income almost tripled over the past 10 years, it's not hard to envision it doubling by 2033.