Once upon a time, Walt Disney (DIS -1.10%) putting out a full-length animated feature film was a major event. Ink and paint put Disney on the entertainment map in its formative years, and then there was the animation renaissance that began in 1989 when The Little Mermaid kicked off a string of popular theatrical releases.
Disney's animation studio has had a dry spell lately. It doesn't seem as if the well will be gushing with its next entry. Hope is starting to fade that Pixar's Elemental -- premiering at a multiplex near you this weekend -- will get the House of Mouse back on track. Variety is reporting that the film is targeting just $35 million in domestic box office receipts this weekend, the weakest debut for a Pixar film in the modern era.
Putting out the fire
Last year was rough for Disney's iconic animation studio. Strange World bombed, but that wasn't a surprise. The real shock was that Lightyear -- the origin story for Toy Story's popular Buzz Lightyear -- also failed to meet initial expectations for ticket sales.
Animation isn't dead. The highest-grossing film this year is The Super Mario Bros. Movie by Illumination (owned by Universal Pictures) and Nintendo. Disney may have whiffed at the plate last year, but Universal's Minions: The Rise of Gru and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 all topped Disney's releases in 2022. In 2021, and Disney's Encanto became a musical sensation. However, most of its success came after it completed its cinematic run, blossoming into a hit on the Disney+ catalog. Sing 2 outgrossed Encanto in multiplex ticketing that year.
You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time that Disney animation had a movie theater blockbuster, putting out Frozen II and Toy Story 4 that year. It's been a long four years.
Image source: Getty Images.
There's no shortage of explanations for Disney fumbling its once seemingly insurmountable dominance in theatrical animation. One theory is that Disney's decision to pull animated releases from theater screenings at the onset of the pandemic -- feeding its Disney+ platform, instead -- backfired. Families can now skip Disney movies on the silver screen, knowing they will be streaming on Disney+ a few months later.
Another theory is that Disney inserting "woke" elements into its more recent releases is alienating conservative families. However, it's not as if rival studios aren't also embracing inclusion and diversity into their more successful animated films.
Finally we get to quality. Elemental has a critics approval rating of 79 on Rotten Tomatoes, meaning that 79% of the film critics tracked by the site are recommending the film. Strange World and Lightyear last year clocked in at 72 and 74, respectively. Having roughly three-quarters of the critic community behind a movie may not seem too shabby, but Disney routinely posts scores north of 90 for its animated films. The counter to that argument is that two of last year's three highest-grossing inked releases -- all put out by other studios -- ranked worse than Strange World and Lightyear. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is the outlier with a 95% approval rating.
In short, only the first theory seems to hold up. Pushing new animated features directly to Disney+ may have been necessary during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis. The move helped Disney+ grow its audience count quickly. However, it also conditioned audiences to enjoy quality animation from the comfort, convenience, and cost-savings of home. We will never know how Soul or Luca -- a pair of Pixar films with Rotten Tomatoes scores above 90 -- would've fared at the local multiplex.
There's a lot at stake here. At its best, the Disney ecosystem is a marvel to watch. A hit animated film spawns merchandising opportunities, theme park attractions, TV shows, and ultimately sequels. As a media stock giant, Disney has a wide range of tools at its disposal to monetize its successes and bury its failures. Right now it needs a hit for its animation studio, and unfortunately for the early read on Elemental, the "opposites attract" meet-cute tale might be missing some key elements for box office success.
