These 3 Investments Could Make You the Most Money in the Second Half of 2023, According to Top Investors

Every investor wants to make money. But there are usually plenty of diverse opinions on exactly how to do it.

At times, though, investors can achieve consensus. That appears to be the case with a recent CNBC survey of 400 chief investment officers and other money managers. These three investments could make you the most money in the second half of 2023, according to top investors.

1. Short-term U.S. Treasuries

Around 26% of the top investors polled by CNBC think that short-term U.S. Treasuries will deliver the best returns in the second half of the year. A big part of that return will be from interest. Yields on all U.S. Treasuries of one-year or lower duration top 5% right now.

Warren Buffett seems to agree with the positive take on short-term Treasuries. Berkshire Hathaway held nearly $104 billion of short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bills at the end of the first quarter. Buffett told CNBC in April that Berkshire buys short-term Treasuries, either three-month or six-month maturities, every Monday.

Retail investors can easily buy short-term U.S. Treasuries via the TreasuryDirect website. There are also several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that own short-term U.S. Treasuries. For example, the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH 0.02%) holds positions in 96 bonds, with average maturity of two years.

2. S&P 500

Another 26% of top investors surveyed by CNBC think that the S&P 500 will generate the strongest gains over the next six months. The index has performed very well so far in 2023, rising 16% year to date.

You can't buy the S&P 500 index itself. However, quite a few ETFs attempt to track the performance of the index. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY 0.95%) ranks as the most heavily traded of the group. 

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 1.00%), though, is slightly more cost-effective for investors. Its expense ratio is only 0.03% compared to 0.0945% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

3. Foreign stocks  

There was a three-way tie in CNBC's survey. Of the top investors polled, 26% stated that foreign stock markets such as Japan, China, and Europe would provide the highest returns in the second half of the year.

Again, ETFs offer a convenient way to invest in these international stocks. iShares and Vanguard offer some of the top alternatives. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ 0.86%) owns a basket of over 200 Japanese stocks. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI 1.93%) holds positions in nearly 650 Chinese stocks. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK 0.76%) is invested in more than 1,300 European stocks. 

Of course, you could also invest in specific international stocks. Buffett has taken this approach, adding significantly to Berkshire's positions in five Japanese stocks in recent months, including Mitsubishi. 

Are these top investors right?

Putting at least some money into short-term U.S. Treasuries makes sense to me, with their attractive yields. A safe return of more than 5% isn't too shabby.

I'm not sure if the S&P 500 will actually be the best moneymaker over the next six months. It's a great place to invest for the long term, though. And if the U.S. avoids a recession this year (as 79% of the CNBC survey respondents think will be the case), the S&P could continue to climb higher.

Foreign stocks, especially Japanese stocks, just might be the biggest winner in the second half of 2023. The management teams of Japanese companies are now more focused on improving shareholder returns after years of cheap valuations. 

We won't know for sure if these three investments really make the most money in the second half of 2023 until the year is over. However, I think some of the top investors that CNBC talked to could be on to something.