Given Tesla's (TSLA 2.63%) extremely pricey valuation, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 75, investors need to constantly assess the likelihood of continued strong growth. A valuation like this means the price of the growth stock is based largely on future expectations for higher earnings growth -- not the company's earnings power today. Fortunately, Tesla's most recent quarterly update gives reasons to be optimistic about the company's prospects for stronger growth. Indeed, Tesla investors may now have enough data to make a reasonable assumption that the company could see rapid growth in deliveries next year, too.

Here are some of the main reasons Tesla will likely grow deliveries substantially in 2024 (albeit at a slower growth rate than in 2023).

Cybertruck demand is spectacular

First, there's Tesla's upcoming launch of its all-electric pickup truck called Cybertruck. In its second-quarter update, the electric car maker reaffirmed that it's on track to deliver the first Cybertruck vehicles this year. 

Furthermore, Tesla CEO Elon Musk emphasized during the company's earnings call that demand for the truck is far greater than supply.

Investors shouldn't get too excited about the potential impact of Cybertruck on Tesla's vehicle-delivery volume next year. Management went out of their way to explain that it's extremely difficult to forecast how well the production ramp of the new vehicle will go, though Musk said that he hopes "it's smooth." Additionally, he said he thinks Tesla will "be making them in high volume next year. ..."

Significant production capacity

It's also worth noting that there was a huge step-up in Tesla's production volume in Q2, highlighting the momentum the company is seeing in manufacturing. This positions the company well as it wraps up the second half of 2023 and heads into next year.

Tesla notably produced about 480,000 vehicles in Q2 2023, up from approximately 441,000 in Q1 2023. This comes as Tesla's production ramp at its new factories in Germany and Texas continues making progress.

In total, Tesla has installed production lines and tooling to accommodate production volume of up to more than 2 million vehicles annually. With trailing-12-month deliveries at about 1.6 million, the company has more room to grow into its installed annual production vehicle capacity.

Delivery growth may slow

So, what can investors expect from Tesla next year? Strong (but slower) growth. This is because Tesla's current quarterly-production volume is already nearing its installed-production capacity. In addition, some of Tesla's growth next year will depend on the rollout of new production lines (like the Cybertruck production line in Texas) -- and there's a lot of uncertainty associated with the ramp of new production lines.

Making a more specific forecast, the company's strong manufacturing momentum and robust demand for Cybertruck set up Tesla for a year-over-year delivery volume growth rate likely in the high teens or even twenties next year, though growth could come in significantly higher than this if Tesla's Cybertruck production ramp goes smoothly.

Notably, some volatility in Tesla's year-over-year growth rates in deliveries, however, is normal. It takes time to ramp up new products, launch new factories, and optimize deliveries for an increasingly global scale.