Kenvue (KVUE +1.26%) seems like an incredibly safe stock. It holds the rights to products that you (and probably almost everyone else you know) use on a daily basis. And, unsurprisingly, it's profitable.
But if you're vetting an investment for its stability, you should consider a few worse-than-expected scenarios. Here's why this stock is at least a touch more risky than it appears on the surface.
NYSE: KVUE
Key Data Points
Slow growth could become no growth on a rainy day
The biggest risk facing Kenvue shareholders today is weak growth for the business. People are unlikely to need to buy more Zyrtec, Tylenol, Listerine, or Rogaine than they already do today. Nor are there fresh international markets clamoring with demand for those goods, as most of them have been widely distributed for decades. And since a big part of Kenvue's competitive advantage is the ownership of those brands in boring markets with stable market shares, finding more sales is going to be incredibly difficult.
There are already many signs of sluggishness. The company's trailing-12-month (TTM) revenue is over $15 billion. But in the second quarter, its top line only grew by 5.4% compared to the same quarter in 2022. Furthermore, the growth it reported occurred with a slightly lower volume of products sold than a year prior. Reading between the lines of its higher net revenue and lower volume, it likely hiked prices.
For 2023, management is estimating a maximum organic growth rate of 6.5%. This guidance is unlikely to be very far off from what actually happens. Still, in the long term, if the growth comes solely at the expense of customers paying slightly more each year, it could become a problem.
After all, consumers know that businesses like CVS Health and Costco Wholesale sell white-labeled products that are often perfect substitutes for Kenvue's branded goods despite being considerably cheaper. The more Kenvue hikes prices, the more appealing white-labeled substitutes will be, even for brand loyalists. Product segments where differentiation is the hardest, like over-the-counter pharmaceuticals and bandages, will see their market share eroded first. And that'll be another headwind for growth.
It's difficult to innovate with brands that buyers expect to remain the same
So even if the risks of Kenvue needing to slash its dividend or curtail its operations are minimal, the risk of growth decelerating further is a real one for the company. What's more, it might not be able to innovate new products, or categories of products, to remedy the situation. It's hard to imagine people would care much if Kenvue developed a marginally better mouthwash than the one they're used to buying, and any decision to do so might take years and years to pay off. At the same time, there's minimal risk of a competitor stealing market share by doing the same.
Investors should still recognize that any economic bumps in the road, like recessions, could imperil the top line for longer than anticipated. If consumers have lighter wallets than usual, switching to substitutes will be more appealing; doing so and experiencing similar product performance could break the hold of the brand loyalty that once kept them coming back time and again.
In a worst-case scenario, Kenvue might even need to reduce the pace of its dividend increases to a crawl. But there's not yet enough data about the pace that management prefers on that front, as the company only completed its separation from Johnson & Johnson in late August.
In the long term, the worst case probably won't come to pass, and Kenvue is likely to remain a fairly safe stock. If you plan on holding it for years and years to collect its dividend payments, just be sure to keep an eye on its payout ratio, as values approaching 100% will foretell a deceleration of hikes to the dividend.
Likewise, keep your expectations well-grounded with this stock. It may be a collection of long-lived brands which will probably be on shelves for decades to come. But consumer preferences do change over time, and with unfavorable pricing and economic dynamics at play, they might just change sooner than investors anticipate.
