It may be a no-brainer to buy what Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 1.08%)(BRK.B 1.14%) CEO Warren Buffett's buying. Doesn't this necessarily mean investors ought to sell whatever the Oracle of Omaha is selling? It's an odd question, but one that current and prospective HP Inc. (HPQ 0.65%) stockholders must consider.
At the end of the day, investors must assess value stocks on their own merits. It's uncomfortable, I'll admit, to identify a stock that Buffett's company is quickly divesting as my top value stock to buy right now. Yet, if Buffett truly prioritizes value and income opportunities, maybe he ought to consider adding to his share position in HP instead of reducing it.
Buffett's not the only seller
Buffett's followers may have already heard that Berkshire Hathaway recently sold 3 million HP shares after having already sold 5 million shares. With that, Berkshire's stake in HP declined to 10%.
Even with Berkshire still holding that remaining stake, it's disheartening that Buffett's company reportedly sold those millions of shares at a loss. I'm not a mind reader, but this seems to suggest that Buffett really wanted to get rid of those shares for some reason. It's also discouraging to learn that HP President and CEO Enrique Lores reportedly sold 76,000 shares of his company and purchased none during the past 12 months.
Key Data Points
Granted, people have various reasons for selling a stock, possibly including profit taking to make room for other investments, or tax-loss harvesting. The point here is that investors shouldn't read too much into the aforementioned selling activity, especially when HP has some of the qualities that Buffett might look for.
In particular, HP has a GAAP-measured trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.21, which is less than half of the sector median P/E ratio of 24.71. Moreover, HP's forward annual dividend yield of 4.03% is much more enticing than the tech-sector average dividend yield of 1.025%.
HP Inc.'s real value proposition: AI-enhanced PCs
Of course, true value can't be entirely encapsulated in a single metric such as a P/E ratio. To earn the No. 1 spot among my current value picks to invest in now, HP must have something in the pipeline to promote the company's future growth.
As I see it, HP can grow if the PC market does. This niche tech segment fared poorly in 2022, but Mikako Kitagawa, a research director at Gartner, evidently sees an end in sight.
"There is evidence that the PC market's decline has finally bottomed out," Kitagawa said, citing "consistent progress" PC vendors made toward reducing inventory in the third quarter.
Perhaps, then, there's light at the end of the tunnel for the beaten-down PC industry in the fourth quarter "as long as holiday sales do not collapse."
The non-collapse scenario remains to be seen, but Bank of America securities analyst Wamsi Mohan seemed undeterred when he double-upgraded HP shares from Underperform to Buy while raising his price target on the stock from $25 to $33. Mohan cited an "improving PC outlook and lower restructuring costs that drive higher free cash flow" for HP, an outlook that appears to align with IDC's estimate that PC shipments will increase 3.7% year over year in 2024.
And if anything can give HP a leg up if the PC market grows as anticipated, it's a connection to the market's beloved artificial intelligence chipmaker, Nvidia (NVDA +2.59%). Reportedly, HP recently unveiled an AI workstation that, according to the company, "simplifies building and customizing private AI models and applications." HP further announced (per a Barron's report) that the company would "offer the first workstations to feature the Nvidia AI enterprise software platform."
Clearly, there's a lot to consider here. It might feel counterintuitive to buy what a company's chief executive and the world's most respected investor have been selling. At the same time, HP's valuation looks reasonable, the company offers a decent dividend, and the Nvidia tie-in is certainly worth something. So, maybe the ultimate contrarian trade is to do the opposite of what Buffett -- the contrarian legions of investors follow -- is doing and buy HP stock.
