From 2020 through 2022, about 950 companies went public via special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Quite frankly, many of them went public at ridiculous valuations and had no clear paths to profitability. In fact, according to an index that tracks completed SPAC mergers, the typical companies that went public through this method fell by nearly 75% in 2022 alone as investor appetite for risk collapsed.
Many of these companies are trading for 90% or less than their initial valuation. Others have been forced to delist or complete reverse splits to remain on major U.S. stock exchanges. And some have collapsed entirely, losing 100% of their shareholders' money.
On the other hand, there are a select few that have proven to have solid business models that still look extremely promising as long-term investment opportunities. Here are two, both of which I own in my personal stock portfolio, that could turn out to be home runs for patient investors.
A true banking disruptor with incredible momentum
SoFi (SOFI +1.33%) is emerging as an app-based bank that is in a class of its own. While many banking disruptors offer products like high-yield savings accounts and no-fee personal loans, they are largely treated as complementary to their customers' branch-based banks, not as a replacement.
NASDAQ: SOFI
Key Data Points
Well, SoFi's goal is to get its customers to completely move their banking relationships to their platform. The bank offers high-yield savings and checking accounts, an investment platform, personal loans, credit cards, mortgages, and more. The app and desktop platforms are both extremely user-friendly, and as the platform scales, the greater the network effect is pulling new customers in.
SoFi added 1.3 million new members during the second and third quarters of 2023 alone, and its growth rate is accelerating. Management anticipates adding more than 1 million new members per quarter in 2024. Plus, SoFi expects to report generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profitability for the first time when it releases its fourth-quarter results later in January.
SoFi is still a relatively small bank. It's the 80th largest bank in the U.S. as of the latest data. But it is also the fastest-growing bank in its size range, and could still have a long way to go, especially if it continues to offer and roll out banking products that are far superior to those offered by brick-and-mortar financial institutions.
An infrastructure play with a great product
Sky Harbour (SKYH 0.37%) serves the private aviation industry, where the number (and size) of private jets has increased at a much faster rate than the space built to house them. So, Sky Harbour is developing a network of private aircraft hangars that are best-in-breed at airports across the United States.
NYSE: SKYH
Key Data Points
The business is just starting to produce significant revenue, but the economics of the business are excellent, and the product is fantastic and is starting to attract some serious attention. The company recently received a new equity investment from an investor group that included former Palo Alto Networks CEO Lane Bess, who is a Sky Harbour customer himself and said there isn't another product like it in the business aviation market. Plus, Sky Harbour has access to low-cost capital through revenue bonds, which not only minimizes its debt service cost, but means that it has no near-term maturities to worry about as it builds its portfolio.
Sky Harbour currently has three facilities in operation, with occupancy rates of 94%, 86%, and 63%. It has three campuses under construction, recently entered into a new ground lease, and is negotiating five others. The company has enough capital to complete its initial build-out plans, and there are dozens of other airports in management's long-range plans.
Both are still rather speculative at this point
To be sure, both have a long way to go. Sky Harbour is just starting to generate significant revenue, and while the early results are promising, it still has quite a bit of work to do to realize its vision of dozens of locations. And SoFi is still a fraction of the size of even the larger regional banks and doesn't have a proven track record of profits yet.
The bottom line is that while I think these will both be long-term winners, I also don't expect a straight upward path. Invest with this in mind.
