While Eli Lilly's (LLY 1.19%) stock trades for around $770 today, Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn thinks it'll soon go as high as $950, rising by around 23%. Based on the updated price target he set on Feb. 16, it's safe to assume that he didn't think that his previous estimate of $805 was bullish enough to account for the company's current and future set of opportunities.
The company's sunny financial guidance for 2024 meshes well with Flynn's estimate, with management anticipating as much as $41.6 billion in revenue. That implies plenty of growth on top of its trailing-12-month (TTM) haul of $32.1 billion. Here's how it'll probably happen.
Zepbound's ascent will carry this stock skyward
The most important driver of Eli Lilly's top line this year will be its freshly launched weight loss drug called Zepbound, which was approved on Nov. 8, 2023. In 2023, sales of the medicine, a direct competitor to Novo Nordisk's blockbuster drug Wegovy, totaled $176 million.
But given that demand is so fierce that both businesses have needed to restrict onboarding new patients so as to ensure an adequate supply of doses for existing patients, this year's sum will almost certainly be much higher. Sales of Zepbound's sibling medicine for type 2 diabetes, Mounjaro, will also likely see a continued ramp-up that's sure to contribute to sharply rising revenue.
Investors have a lot to look forward to this year
Zepbound and Mounjaro are just the latest big earners to be approved from Eli Lilly's pipeline. Before the end of the year, it should hear back from regulators at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding whether one of its programs for treating Alzheimer's disease will be approved. It'll also be hearing back regarding its atopic dermatitis program -- and both of those potential approvals could be significant catalysts for the stock as well.
