Heading into the second half of 2024, Bitcoin (BTC +0.44%) is no longer the no-brainer investment that it was at the beginning of the year. Ever since Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $73,750 in mid-March, it has struggled to push past the $70,000 price level, and currently trades at just $61,000.
No surprises here, but some people are starting to wonder if Bitcoin is somehow broken, and are turning their attention to other potential cryptocurrency investments. But I think that would be a mistake. There are two good reasons to buy Bitcoin while it's below $70,000.
The Bitcoin ETF story is not over
First and most importantly, the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to attract new investor inflows. As long as money is pouring into these ETFs, there's no reason to worry. While the inflows of money into Bitcoin do not appear to be as strong as they were when the ETFs first launched at the beginning of the year, this steady buying pressure helps to prop up the price of Bitcoin.
Image source: Getty Images.
While some institutional investors are already buying these Bitcoin ETFs, we have yet to see the full-scale arrival of pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds. According to BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, these are coming soon.
And when they do, the flow of money into the ETFs could increase dramatically. Given that BlackRock is the company behind the most successful new spot Bitcoin ETF to date -- the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT 1.73%) -- there's definitely room for optimism.
Once institutional investors decide to ratchet up their allocation to Bitcoin beyond just 1%, that's when we'll really start to see massive inflows into the new ETFs. That's good news for Bitcoin over both the short term and the long term. So the Bitcoin ETF story is far from over. In fact, one could argue that it's just getting started.
Don't forget about the Bitcoin halving
The Bitcoin halving, which took place on April 19, was supposed to be a massive new catalyst for Bitcoin price appreciation. But, so far, it has been a nothingburger. So it's easy to understand why some people are already saying that the Bitcoin halving was wildly overhyped.
But, again, I think that would be a mistake. Giving up on the halving after just two months reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of what the Bitcoin halving is, and how it works. It can take months for the impact of the halving to be felt.
The first to feel the impact are the Bitcoin miners, who are currently being forced to sell off their Bitcoin holdings in order to make up for the 50% cut in their mining rewards. In just the first two weeks of June, Bitcoin miners sold over $200 million worth of Bitcoin, so it's no surprise that there has been so much recent downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Still unconvinced? Consider what happened during the previous Bitcoin halving cycle, which kicked off in May 2020. As can be seen from the chart below, Bitcoin started the halving cycle trading around $8,500. For the first few months, it had tremendous difficulty breaking through the $10,000 level. It wasn't until October that the explosive upward move really started. But once it did, there was no stopping it. By the end of the year, Bitcoin was trading close to $30,000.
Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView
So I think there's still time for the current halving cycle. While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, previous Bitcoin halving cycles from 2012 and 2016 show a similar pattern. So, investors need to be patient and let the impact of the halving work its way through the entire Bitcoin ecosystem. With that in mind, it may take until October for Bitcoin to go on another of its legendary rallies.
Focus on the long-term outlook
Instead of focusing on short-term market moves, though, it's best to focus on the long-term outlook for Bitcoin. And that's where things get really exciting, because Bitcoin is finally starting to tip into the mainstream. The first step was to win over investors, both retail and institutional, who had never invested in crypto before. That's happening right now with the success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
The next step will be to win over lawmakers and regulators. For the first time ever, Bitcoin is emerging as a presidential campaign issue, and there is growing momentum in Washington, D.C., to create the type of regulatory environment where Bitcoin can thrive. So stop worrying about Bitcoin's short-term market swings, and instead, focus on the big picture. Bitcoin, at its current price of just $61,000, appears to be significantly undervalued.
