The stocks that led gains in the S&P 500 Index in the first half primarily were in the field of tech, operating in the high-growth area of artificial intelligence (AI). But an exception emerged, and this company operates in the generally slower-but-steady growth business of pharmaceuticals. I'm talking about Eli Lilly (LLY 3.67%). The pharma giant's shares soared 55% in the first half as the company posted double-digit revenue growth -- and amid excitement about two products in particular.
Lilly sells Mounjaro and Zepbound, two of the most sought-after drugs for weight control. This market is booming today, with demand for these and other similar drugs surpassing supply. And the weight-loss-drug market could reach as much as $100 billion by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs research. Along with this, Lilly has a full portfolio of drugs across treatment areas, including a newly approved one for Alzheimer's disease.
So there are plenty of reasons to be excited about Lilly's future. But is this enough to push the shares, trading at around $900 now, past $1,000 in the second half? Let's find out.
Image source: Getty Images.
Lilly's crowning jewel
First, let's take a closer look at Lilly's path so far. This big pharma company sells drugs in various categories, including immunology, cancer, diabetes, and more. But the crowning jewel in recent times is the company's weight-loss portfolio.
Though Mounjaro is officially approved only for type 2 diabetes, doctors regularly prescribe if off label for weight loss, and it has brought in billions of dollars in revenue for Lilly. The newly approved Zepbound, the same molecule as Mounjaro but specifically approved for weight loss, generated more than $517 million in its first full quarter of commercialization, putting it on the path to becoming a blockbuster like Mounjaro.
As mentioned, demand for these treatments has soared, prompting Lilly and top rival Novo Nordisk -- the maker of similar weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic -- to ramp up production. Lilly has spent more than $18 billion on infrastructure increases since 2020, and this should serve the company well as the market grows.
Other companies -- such as Viking Therapeutics and Amgen -- are shepherding weight-loss candidates through clinical trials, but I wouldn't worry too much about this limiting Lilly's revenue. For two reasons, one of which is the high demand I just mentioned. And the second reason is Lilly is studying new potential weight-loss drugs in late-stage clinical trials, meaning that if all goes well through this development process, they could represent even better treatments than current ones. One of Lilly's candidates could achieve stronger efficacy, and the other comes in a convenient pill format.
NYSE: LLY
Key Data Points
Constant innovation in a billion-dollar market
This constant innovation should help Lilly maintain its leadership in this billion-dollar market. On top of this, other products in Lilly's portfolio are delivering strong growth. For example, in the recent quarter, four products, not including Mounjaro and Zepbound -- delivered double-digit increases in revenue.
And new and potential upcoming approvals should add to growth. Lilly just submitted tirzepatide, the molecule in its weight-loss drugs, to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for obstructive sleep apnea in obese adults. An approval here would be significant because it would unlock Medicare coverage for Zepbound -- Medicare only will cover weight-loss drugs if they're approved for an additional health benefit.
Also, as mentioned, the company recently scored approval of Kisunla, a monoclonal antibody for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. And there's something that sets this product apart today: It's the only therapy targeting amyloid plaques in the brain that's shown patients can stop the treatment once plaques have disappeared.
Lilly's growth-stock valuation
All of this supports earnings growth now and into the coming years for Lilly -- but is it enough to lift the stock beyond $1,000 in the second half? It's true that Lilly is richly valued today, trading at 66 times forward earnings estimates. This valuation looks more like one of a growth stock than a pharma one, but it's important to note that Lilly has shifted into growth territory in recent times -- and thanks to demand for its weight-loss drugs, this seems likely to continue.
So long-term investors won't necessarily shy away from paying this price for a solid growth player like Lilly. This could push the shares higher, especially if Lilly's earnings report in August shows momentum continuing. Lilly shares only have to increase a little more than 9% to reach $1,000, a level that represents a market cap of $900 billion. All of this is attainable.
This means Lilly could rise to $1,000 and even beyond in the second half, but even if it doesn't, this pharma stock has what it takes to deliver growth over time.
