For the last three decades, Wall Street and investors have pretty much always had a next-big-thing technology, innovation, or trend to latch onto. What's uncommon is for there to be two trends vying for attention at the same time, which is what's going on right now.
Since 2023 began, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has captivated Wall Street. The ability for software and systems to learn without human intervention gives AI a sky-high addressable market over the long run.
But we've also witnessed the return of stock-split euphoria.
Image source: Getty Images.
A stock split is an event where a publicly traded company alters its share price and outstanding share count. These are purely cosmetic moves designed to make shares more nominally affordable for everyday investors, as with a forward-stock split, or to increase a company's share price to ensure it meets the minimum continued listing standards of a major stock exchange, as with a reverse-stock split. Stock splits have no effect on a company's market cap or its underlying operating performance.
Over the last six months, more than a dozen high-profile, time-tested companies have announced and/or completed a stock split -- all but one of which was of the forward-split variety. Investors tend to gravitate to companies enacting forward splits because they're being conducted from a position of operating strength.
Although no stock splits have, arguably, been more anticipated this year than AI behemoths Nvidia (NVDA 0.33%) and Broadcom (AVGO 1.39%), another high-flying artificial intelligence stock is vying for its moment in the spotlight.
Nvidia and Broadcom have completed historic stock splits this year
Although brand-name juggernauts Walmart and Chipotle Mexican Grill kicked off the stock-split party in 2024, the May 22 announcement from Nvidia that it would be completing its largest forward-stock split in history, 10-for-1, really excited current and prospective investors.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Roughly two weeks after completing its split, which occurred after the close of trading on June 7, Nvidia's stock briefly topped $140 per share, giving the company a peak market value of $3.46 trillion. This combination of stock-split euphoria and having its hardware lead the AI revolution briefly allowed Nvidia to become the world's largest publicly traded company.
Nvidia has held a near-monopoly on the graphics processing units (GPUs) responsible for the split-second decision-making that's fueling AI-driven data centers. In 2023, Nvidia accounted for 3.76 million of the 3.85 million GPUs shipped to data centers, and current demand for its superstar H100 GPU has handily overwhelmed supply.
Although history would suggest that all next-big-thing innovations are destined for a bubble-bursting event -- which would undeniably hit Nvidia's stock hard -- Nvidia has ridden its compute advantages to enormous operating and stock-based gains.
NASDAQ: AVGO
Key Data Points
On June 12, AI networking specialist Broadcom followed suit by announcing its own 10-for-1 forward split. This is Broadcom's first-ever stock split since Avago and Broadcom officially merged in early 2016. Shares began trading at a split-adjusted price on July 15.
Broadcom has quickly embraced the interest and demand for AI-relevant networking solutions. Last year, it introduced its Jericho3-AI fabric, which is able to connect up to 32,000 high-powered GPUs. The company's solutions are designed to reduce tail latency and ensure that businesses are getting as much compute ability as possible out of their GPUs.
However, Broadcom generates plenty of sales and operating cash flow beyond the AI arena. Its wireless chips and accessories are staples in next-generation smartphones. What's more, Broadcom provides an assortment of products for industrial automation and next-gen vehicles, as well as cybersecurity solutions.
While Nvidia and Broadcom have had their moment in the sun, Wall Street's newest AI stock-split stock, which has seen its shares increase in value by 2,750% over the trailing-five-year period, is readying for its moment of fame.
Image source: Getty Images.
Meet Wall Street's newest AI-driven stock-split stock
The high-flying AI stock set to push Nvidia and Broadcom out of the way is none other than customizable rack server and storage specialist Super Micro Computer (SMCI +2.94%).
Following the closing bell on Aug. 6, Super Micro announced that its board had approved a historic 10-for-1 stock split. Similar to Broadcom, this represents Super Micro's first-ever split. With an effective date of Sept. 30, 2024, shares should open at closer to $51 (based on its closing price on Aug. 8) once trading commences on Oct. 1.
Just as Nvidia's chips have become the "brains" of AI-accelerated data centers, Super Micro Computer has seemingly been the go-to choice among businesses for AI infrastructure. Net sales for the June-ended quarter catapulted to $5.31 billion, which is a cool 144% higher than the prior-year period. The wide-ranging expectation is that demand for the physical infrastructure needed to power AI-accelerated data centers isn't going to slow anytime soon.
But at the same time, the argument needs to be made that Super Micro Computer may have come a bit too far, too fast.
NASDAQ: SMCI
Key Data Points
As I alluded to earlier, every potential game-changing innovation, technology, and trend for three decades has endured an early stage bubble-bursting event. This is a roundabout way of saying that investors have a consistent habit of overestimating the uptake and utility of new innovations. Since most businesses lack a true game plan with AI, we're probably witnessing the next in a long line of early innings bubbles.
Super Micro Computer also has precedent with high-growth trends failing to pan out as predicted. During the mid-2010s, the company's stock rallied on the expectation that its infrastructure would be critical to the newfound cloud-computing boom. Ultimately, demand for customizable rack servers didn't meet lofty expectations and its stock retreated by roughly 75% over multiple years.
Something else to consider about Super Micro Computer is that it's highly dependent on Nvidia for its success. The company's rack servers incorporate Nvidia's H100 GPUs. If production capacity for the H100 remains constrained, Super Micro likely won't be able to satisfy all of its infrastructure orders.
Although shares of Super Micro Computer appear cheap -- the company's forward price-to-earnings multiple is a mere 12 -- this valuation is based on near-flawless execution moving forward. If history tells us anything, it's that the ramp associated with new technologies and trends is rarely, if ever, perfect.
