After hitting an all-time high of $73,750 back in March, it looked like Bitcoin (BTC +1.63%) was poised for a huge breakout in 2024. But that hasn't happened. Instead, Bitcoin has traded as low as $54,000 during the past six months, and currently sits at about $64,000.
Given the recent lack of momentum for Bitcoin, it's understandable that many analysts are starting to think that it will be little changed for the remainder of the year. That said, my contrarian prediction is that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2024 before going on a spectacular rally next year.
The case for Bitcoin hitting $100,000
There are three key factors in Bitcoin's favor during the final quarter of the year. The first, of course, is the return to form for the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. After a brief hiccup in August, when investor inflows dried up due to the "crypto flash crash," it looks like investors are once again putting their money into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs.
At the end of September, there was a notable surge of new investor money into Bitcoin. So we could be returning to the same situation that we saw during the first three months of the year, when the price of Bitcoin absolutely skyrocketed after the launch of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
The second factor is the 2024 presidential election. The conventional thinking here is that the election of former president Donald Trump could have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin. That makes sense, given how much he has attempted to position himself as the pro-Bitcoin, pro-crypto presidential candidate.
Right now, though, the election is too close to call. Depending on which poll you look at, either candidate could win. The good news here is that Vice President Kamala Harris has started to make some pro-crypto headlines with just weeks to go. So, from the perspective of crypto investors, the election could end up being a plus no matter who wins.
Image source: Getty Images.
Finally, don't forget about the Bitcoin halving in April, when the reward for mining new bitcoins was cut in half and thus slowing the supply growth rate. So far, this much-hyped event has had little or no impact on the price of Bitcoin. As a result, many investors have already forgotten about it.
However, it's worth taking a look back at what happened after the previous Bitcoin halving in May 2020. The price of Bitcoin didn't do much for months, before absolutely skyrocketing at the end of the year. In fact, during the final four months of 2020, the price of Bitcoin soared 270%. If the same dynamic happens again this year, we're talking about an implied price of more than $170,000 for Bitcoin by January 2025!
The case against Bitcoin hitting $100,000
Realistically, you could come up with several different reasons why Bitcoin has been so lackluster of late. But I think all of these reasons can be boiled down to a single factor: Bitcoin's growing correlation with the broader market. According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 index is the highest it has been since February 2022.
If you're a risk-averse investor, that's probably a good thing. It means that Bitcoin is no longer a highly volatile asset and behaves much like stocks do. But people don't buy Bitcoin because they are risk-averse. They buy Bitcoin because of its enormous upside potential and its unique risk-reward profile.
Thus, to attract more investors, Bitcoin needs to decouple from the S&P 500. That's not too much to ask, given that a lack of correlation with the S&P 500 has been the case for much of Bitcoin's history. After all, if Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the S&P 500, why not just buy a tech stock instead?
Where does Bitcoin go from here?
From my perspective, both the upcoming election and the residual impact of the April halving have the potential to decouple Bitcoin from traditional assets. And that's why I'm still bullish on Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by the end of the year.
If that happens, 2025 could be a monster year for Bitcoin. According to investment firm Bernstein, Bitcoin could soar to $200,000 by the end of next year. Investment firm VanEck thinks a price target of $350,000 is within reach for Bitcoin. And personal finance guru Robert Kiyosaki goes one step further. He thinks Bitcoin could hit $500,000 next year.
Before you go all-in on Bitcoin, though, understand the risks involved and keep your expectations in check. According to prediction markets, for example, Bitcoin only has a 16% chance of hitting $100,000 in 2024.
Investing in Bitcoin right now is not for the faint of heart. But if you believe in the long-term investment thesis for Bitcoin, then now might be a unique opportunity to buy while it's still undervalued.
