Super Micro Computer (SMCI 5.72%) split its shares this month and now they are trading at one-tenth of what they were before the split. For investors, that means a lower share price, and perhaps the ability to own more full shares. Stock splits can sometimes have positive effects on the share price even though they don't fundamentally change anything about a company's prospects or improve its earnings numbers.
With shares of Super Micro Computer, also known as just Supermicro, down more than 50% in just the past six months, could the recent split provide the stock a boost, and potentially help stop its tailspin?
NASDAQ: SMCI
Key Data Points
Why a stock split may not help Supermicro
A stock split doesn't solve any problems for a business. Regardless of whether Supermicro stock is trading at $450 or $45, investors can buy fractional shares if they want to invest in it but don't have the funds necessary to acquire entire shares of the company. And that's why stock splits normally shouldn't lead to a rally in the share price; they don't change valuation multiples to make the stock a better buy.
Some investors may believe that because a stock is priced lower, it's cheaper and a better buy, but that is a mistake. When talking about valuation, you should always look at per-share earnings and revenue multiples, which take into context the share price. And stock splits don't change those multiples.
Stock splits can become positive catalysts if a stock rises significantly in value and then a company opts to do a split. In Supermicro's case, however, the stock has been crashing of late, and its stock split comes at a time when there's a lot of negativity and bearishness around the business, which is why a split may not have a positive effect on its share price.
Supermicro's problems have nothing to do with its share price
For Supermicro, there are much larger concerns for investors than its share price being too high. The company's margins have been under pressure and the Department of Justice (DOJ) is reportedly looking into the company after a short report in August alleged the company was involved in questionable accounting practices. Management has denied any wrongdoing and the DOJ investigation may not necessarily lead to anything substantive and consequential for the business and its investors.
The bigger issue, however, is that the company's earnings may not grow at a high rate if Supermicro's margins don't improve. In its most recent earnings report, for the quarter ended June 30, the company's gross margin was just 11%, down from an already fairly low rate of 17% a year ago. Low margins can negate much of the benefit the tech company will get from generating strong server sales and growing its operations, and that's the biggest reason I'd be concerned about the stock right now.
Is Supermicro stock a buy?
I don't believe a stock split is going to save Supermicro stock nor do I think the DOJ probe is going to cripple it. Short reports are often biased and meritless and while they can temporarily send a stock lower, they rarely uncover disastrous findings auditors, analysts, and investors have all missed.
The company can put a lot of concerns to rest by simply posting strong earnings numbers and showing that it can grow both its top and bottom lines at high rates. But it still has to prove that it can do that.
Unless you're comfortable with the risk that comes with owning Supermicro stock today, the safest option is to take a wait-and-see approach right now. The biggest question mark around the business remains its ability to grow its earnings, because if it can't do that, it's going to be hard to justify buying the AI stock.
