In 2024, new spot crypto ETFs officially launched, Bitcoin (BTC +0.29%) emerged as a political campaign issue for the first time, and meme coin mania returned to the crypto market. All of that has led to stunning gains for nearly every major cryptocurrency. Bitcoin, for example, is now up more than 100% for the year, and is rapidly closing in on the $100,000 price level.
So what can we expect in 2025? The safe answer, of course, is "more of the same." But let's dig a little deeper and consider what major changes might be right around the corner.
A new regulatory environment for crypto
Ever since the crypto market crash of 2022 and the spectacular collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, there has been talk of the U.S. enacting a comprehensive new regulatory framework for crypto. Something has to be done, the thinking goes, to make the crypto market less of a "Wild West" environment. Unfortunately, not much has actually been done over the past two years.
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So, 2025 could be the year that crypto finally gets a new regulatory framework. That likely starts with a reduction in the role of the SEC, which has been the de facto lead regulator when it comes to crypto. President-elect Donald Trump has already promised that he would replace Gary Gensler, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), on day one of his administration. That's a move that will certainly resonate with crypto investors, who are tired of the SEC's perceived heavy-handed approach to regulating crypto.
If new crypto legislation passes in Congress, it would likely lead to the installation of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) -- and not the SEC -- as the new lead regulator for crypto. This legislation would also lead to much more clarity around what can be done, and what can't be done, in the world of crypto investments. And it could even lead to a repeal of SAB 121, a much-disliked accounting rule from the SEC that governs how cryptocurrencies must be held on the balance sheets of financial institutions.
A crypto "arms race" by sovereign governments
In the final months of the presidential campaign, there was a surprising amount of talk of how crypto is emerging as a new national strategic priority. In fact, some crypto backers have even suggested that we might see a Bitcoin "arms race," as sovereign governments around the world go on Bitcoin buying sprees.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
In the U.S., this buying spree would likely start with the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve that will be empowered to buy 1 million Bitcoins over the next five years. Conceptually, a strategic Bitcoin reserve would be much like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, only it would hold Bitcoin instead of petroleum. Owning 1 million Bitcoins, equivalent to 5% of the current circulating supply, would make America a "Bitcoin superpower," as Trump promised on the campaign trail.
Other nations would likely need to follow suit. And that has raised the interesting possibility that China might be forced to roll back its crypto ban, which has been in place since late 2021. If China goes all-in on Bitcoin, and starts to accumulate Bitcoin the way it has been growing gold reserves, we could see a monster incoming Bitcoin rally.
And don't forget about the world's biggest sovereign wealth funds. They are also potential huge Bitcoin buyers, and there have been on-again, off-again, rumors that affluent nations such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar have been very quietly buying Bitcoin for their sovereign wealth funds. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has already suggested that sovereign wealth funds might become some of the biggest buyers of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs (including its own spot Bitcoin ETF).
The arrival of a new cryptocurrency superstar?
If you buy into the idea of an incoming crypto market bull rally, then it makes sense that we could see the emergence of a new crypto superstar in 2025. That's what happened during the crypto bull market rally of 2020 and 2021, when the emergence of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) created hot new crypto tokens. The previous rally also led to the rise of new Layer 1 blockchain networks such as Solana.
So what can we expect this time around? It's impossible to predict which new coins or tokens will take off, but there are some interesting clues out there. There are new opportunities in Bitcoin mining, for example, thanks to Trump's campaign promise to mine all future Bitcoin in America.
Keep your expectations in check
Heading into 2025, it's easy to see why there's such bullish sentiment in the crypto market right now. All of a sudden, it seems like anything is possible. Thanks to Elon Musk and the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), we're now talking about Dogecoin in the same sentence as government efficiency. It's fun, but it's also scary.
So keep your expectations in check. There's still a lot of heavy lifting to do on the regulatory front. And the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve is an idea so new and so untested that it might not ever get off the ground. But one thing is certain: There will be plenty of opportunity for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin to skyrocket in value next year, as long as new pro-crypto policies are put into place.
