All major market indexes declined today led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which at one point this morning fell 600 points, although has since recouped some of those losses. The broader benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also dipped this morning, but had recovered some of those losses and traded less than 1% down as of 12:04 p.m. ET today.
The sell-off was broad-based including tech and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Shares of the chipmakers Broadcom (AVGO +2.97%) and Micron Technology (MU +3.92%) were both down 2.7%. Shares of the voice recognition company SoundHound AI (SOUN -1.17%) had fallen roughly 6%.
Light trading volume to end the year
There was no apparent reason for the strong sell-off this morning. Treasury yields fell, which is good for the market after they surpassed 4.6% in recent days, the highest level seen since midyear. Trading volume is light today, which is normal in the final week of the year because more investors are taking time off or on vacation, so I wouldn't read too much into the action last week or this week.
Investors have been bearish since the Federal Reserve concluded its final meeting of the year on Dec. 18, delivering a more hawkish message to the market that said the agency would proceed with interest rate cuts cautiously. Inflation is still above the Fed's 2% preferred target and the labor market still looks strong on many accounts. Furthermore, some fear President-elect Donald Trump's potential policy proposals involving tax cuts and tariffs could reignite inflation in 2025.
Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, told CNBC this morning that he is not so worried about today and sees further tailwinds ahead in 2025 including a pro-business Trump administration and signs of cooling inflation. He thinks 7,000 is in the cards for the S&P 500 in the first half of next year.
"It is not a liquid environment because we're in the final two days of the year," he said. "Strangely, if the last week of December is weak, I actually think it bodes well for a rebound in the first week of January."
NASDAQ: MU
Key Data Points
Not everyone is as bullish, however. Jeremy Siegel, a professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School also went on CNBC this morning and said he is more cautious about the market. He thinks the probability of a 10% market correction in 2025 has risen.
"I think we have challenges next year because of all the optimism that has been built in this year," Siegel said, acknowledging that the AI narrative is still strong. "We still have a bifurcated market in the sense that the Mag 7 being ... 30-35 times earnings and the rest of the market being 18-20, which is much more reasonable. I think 2025 could be that switch around."
Don't read too much into this week
I want to emphasize that investors shouldn't read too much into the market's big moves in recent days. There's light trading volume right now and investors could be selling at the end of the year for many different reasons. I agree with Siegel that the likelihood of a correction next year is elevated. However, I also agree with Lee that there haven't yet been enough indicators to suggest a major sell-off is warranted right now. Ultimately, I expect turbulence next year but could see the market eking out more gains when all is said and done.
Highly valued tech and AI stocks like Broadcom and SoundHound AI concern me the most because the margin for error is much slimmer. Micron trades at a reasonable valuation, so I see a better risk-reward proposition in this name.
