What's the next big thing? Probably artificial intelligence (AI) agents. At least, that's the best answer based on what many technology sector executives and industry analysts are talking about the most these days.
Microsoft (MSFT 1.92%) CEO Satya Nadella is one executive who is publicly praising the potential for AI agents. But could Nadella's recent comments about AI agents mean huge trouble for two stocks -- Fiverr (FVRR 0.10%) and Upwork (UPWK 0.66%)?
What Nadella said
AI agents can answer questions like a chatbot. However, they're more powerful than stand-alone large language models (LLMs) because they can automatically and autonomously perform tasks. They can plan specific actions to achieve a desired goal. They can use external tools (including executing software code) to perform tasks. And they can use information from their environment to improve how the tasks are performed.
Unsurprisingly, Nadella thinks the future for AI agents is bright. He spoke earlier this month with Infosys co-founder Nandan Nilekani at a CEO Connect session in Bengaluru, India. This session was scheduled before the Microsoft AI Tour.
The Hindu newspaper quoted Nadella as telling Nilekani and the audience, "Humans and swarms of AI agents will be the next frontier." Nadella envisioned AI agents working alongside human workers to perform tasks. He believes these agents will lead to greater efficiency.
Microsoft's CEO doesn't think AI agents will be a technology only used in limited cases. Nadella predicted that AI agents will be used as extensively as spreadsheets are today. He also warned corporate CEOs they must adapt to this technological innovation. According to The Hindu, he said, "We've got to shift how we look at the world."
Are these gig economy leaders in trouble?
If Nadella is right, AI agents could help perform a wide array of tasks in the not-too-distant future. They could generate creative content, such as graphics for advertising, and analyze data. AI agents could create software and automate the testing of the code. They could assist with project management by building detailed project plans and monitoring the completion of assignments.
And that's just the tip of the iceberg. If the work is digital, AI agents could help at least partially automate it.
Those are the kinds of jobs that many companies contract out today. Fiverr and Upwork rank among the top online marketplaces that match employers and freelancers. Their business models are built on the ongoing need for human workers to help companies achieve their goals. But that need could be reduced because of AI agents.
NYSE: FVRR
Key Data Points
To be sure, Nadella didn't forecast that AI agents would completely replace humans. He sees a scenario where AI agents complement humans and make them more productive. However, increased productivity will likely translate to reduced staffing needs for companies. That doesn't seem encouraging for Fiverr's and Upwork's growth prospects.
Fiverr's number of active buyers has trended downward since 2022, although its buyers are spending more. Upwork's number of active clients rose 2% year over year in the latest quarter, but declined from earlier in the year. It's too soon to conclude that the trends are harbingers of serious challenges ahead. But Nadella's warning about the need to adapt to AI agents is one that Fiverr and Upwork should heed because of the potential for disruption to their businesses.
NASDAQ: UPWK
Key Data Points
Where there's trouble, there's also opportunity
The good news for Fiverr and Upwork shareholders is that both companies aren't turning a blind eye to how it is affecting their market. Fiverr CEO Micha Kaufman said in his company's third-quarter earnings call, "One thing that became clearer to me in the last year is that with the emergency of GenAI and the promise of AGI, the next generation of products we build must empower our community to fully leverage artificial intelligence." Upwork CEO Hayden Brown stated in her company's Q3 call, "[W]e are rapidly innovating, especially in AI."
Kaufman especially seems to appreciate the magnitude of the potential AI threat. He noted, "It also became clear to me that in the future, the best work will be done by humans and AI technology together, not humans alone or AI alone. With that in mind, the role of Fiverr must broaden from a talent marketplace to a comprehensive work platform, where incredible work happens."
AI agents may cause trouble for both Fiver and Upwork if the demand for human freelancers declines significantly over the next few years. Perhaps, though, AI agents could also create some opportunities for the two companies if they can successfully evolve. However, my hunch is the biggest opportunities will be presented to the innovators that make AI agents possible -- like Nadella's Microsoft.
