In 2012, a group of developers who eventually founded the financial technology company Ripple created XRP (XRP +2.71%), a digital asset that makes cross-border payments faster and cheaper. XRP is currently the third most valuable cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Former Goldman Sachs analyst Dom Kwok wrote earlier this year, "High chance that XRP flips ETH very soon." As of Feb. 21, XRP has a market value of $154 billion, and Ethereum has a market value of $338 billion. That means Kwok's prediction implies that XRP will soar 120% from its current price of $2.66.
I see two catalysts that could cause XRP's price to double (or more) in the next year. First, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may dismiss its lawsuit against Ripple in the near future. Second, the SEC may approve spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) later this year.
Read on for more details.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
The SEC may dismiss its lawsuit against Ripple
In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple. The agency asked the court to fine the company $2 billion because it allegedly raised over $1.3 billion by selling XRP as an unregistered security, both directly to institutional investors and indirectly through digital exchanges.
In July 2023, Federal Judge Analisa Torres issued a split decision, ruling direct sales to institutional investors violated securities law but indirect sales through digital exchanges did not. Torres ordered Ripple to pay $125 million, much less than what the SEC requested. The agency has since appealed the ruling.
The SEC filed its opening brief with the appeals court earlier this year, and Ripple plans to file its opening brief in April. But the lawsuit may be dismissed before that happens. The SEC has undergone a radical change since former Chair Gary Gensler resigned on Jan. 20. Specifically, the day after his departure, the agency formed a cryptocurrency task force to create sensible regulations.
"The SEC has relied primarily on enforcement actions to regulate crypto retroactively and reactively, often adopting novel and untested legal interpretations along the way. Clarity regarding who must register, and practical solutions for those seeking to register, have been elusive. The result has been confusion about what is legal, which creates an environment hostile to innovation and conducive to fraud. The SEC can do better."
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to strengthen American leadership in digital financial technologies. The directive created a working group to evaluate the creation of a national digital asset stockpile. That may position the government as a buyer of cryptocurrency, which could legitimize digital assets and encourage adoption by institutional investors.
Here's the bottom line: The regulatory climate has become more favorable for cryptocurrency companies since President Donald Trump took office. Consequently, I think the SEC may simply drop its lawsuit against Ripple in the coming months. If that happens, XRP could soar. Indeed, its price rocketed 69% during the 24-hour period after Federal Judge Torres handed Ripple a partial win in July 2023.
Image source: Getty Images.
Spot XRP ETFs could unlock demand from retail and institutional investors
Several asset managers have recently filed paperwork with the SEC requesting permission to create spot XRP ETFs. The agency has up to 240 days to make a decision, which puts the deadline in mid-October 2025.
Spot XRP ETFs would offer more convenient exposure than direct ownership. Rather than buying XRP through costly cryptocurrency exchanges, investors could buy spot XRP ETFs through existing brokerage accounts. By reducing friction, those investment vehicles could bring more institutional and retail investors to the market.
That scenario has already played out to some degree with Bitcoin. The SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, and the cryptocurrency soared more than 100% over the following year. Brazil recently approved the first spot XRP ETF, and if the U.S. SEC follows suit, I think XRP could more than double in value in short order.
