After a torrid 548% run over the past two years, Nvidia (NVDA +1.67%) shares have largely been flat since November. That's understandable as investors digest its growth prospects in a rapidly changing artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
However, one Wall Street analyst thinks shares are ready to pop again. KeyBanc's John Vinh rates the stock as overweight and just raised his price target from $180 to $190 per share. The new target implies more than 40% upside for Nvidia's shares.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Nvidia hit by the DeepSeek shake-up
One reason the stock has been range-bound recently is the fear that massive spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is now in limbo. That uncertainty stems from DeepSeek, a Chinese AI start-up that released a powerful new large language model (LLM) that it claims to have trained for just $6 million. This low-budget success story has called into question the plans of U.S. tech companies to spend over $300 billion on AI investments in 2025.
According to Vinh, this uncertainty around the industry and Nvidia has created a buying opportunity. He believes the company will beat expectations when it reports fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter results on Feb. 26. Vinh also thinks the company will soothe any investor concerns with solid guidance for the current quarter.
Nvidia previously provided Q4 revenue guidance of $37.5 billion (at the midpoint). Vinh expects the company to hit the high end of the range with $38.2 billion in sales, according to Barron's. More importantly, he believes revenue will jump again to $43.0 billion in its fiscal 2026 first quarter.
If Nvidia continues to grow revenue quarter after quarter, it's likely that Vinh's prediction will ultimately play out. Shareholders are certainly counting on the company's top and bottom lines to keep growing as the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30 as of this writing. If management can reassure investors with the upcoming report, its valuation multiple might even expand. And combined with continued earnings growth, Nvidia may be able to deliver the gains Vinh predicts.
