Once upon a time, Netflix's (NFLX 2.52%) stock price lived and died by the company's subscriber growth.
That hasn't been the best number to watch for several years. Netflix doesn't even report it in the same detail it used to, and management stopped providing forward-looking guidance for subscriber growth in 2023. In next month's first-quarter 2025 report, Netflix won't even report membership counts or average revenue per member anymore.
Those old-school favorite metrics just don't reflect Netflix's business goals these days. The official focus in January's Q4 2024 report -- and going forward -- was threefold:
- Sustain healthy revenue growth
- Expand operating margin
- Grow free cash flow
Among these three core targets, revenue growth comes closest to the former focus on subscriber additions. But in the long run, Netflix should be valued by its free cash flows, making this the most relevant financial metric to watch.
NFLX Free Cash Flow data by YCharts
Netflix's free cash flow is the new subscriber count
Netflix stock recently set a new all-time high, but the company isn't really delivering on its stated goals -- yet.
Free cash flows rose sharply in 2022 and 2023, but held almost perfectly firm in 2024. These cash profits actually fell 13% year over year in the all-important holiday quarter of 2024. The full-year figure held steady at $6.9 billion.
But Netflix shares rose 13% in the next two days anyway, because management's guidance pointed to 13% revenue growth in 2025 (healthy revenue growth) along with an operating margin increase of 2 percentage points (expand operating margin) and roughly 16% richer free cash flows (grow free cash flow).
NASDAQ: NFLX
Key Data Points
Granted, these are forward-looking statements and many things can go wrong along the way, but investors embraced Netflix's optimistic outlook on the most important numbers. You should get used to watching these three crucial Netflix metrics -- especially the free-cash-flow figure -- as the media-streaming veteran continues growing in a game-changing way.
