Ever since the presidential election in November, XRP (XRP +3.34%) has been on an absolute rocket ship. At its current price of $2.39, XRP is up almost 400% over the past five months. And it remains the top-performing major cryptocurrency of 2025, up 20% since the start of the year.
And things just keep getting better for XRP. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly decided to drop its lawsuit against Ripple (the company behind the XRP token) that has been ongoing since December 2020. On that news, XRP popped another 10%. So just how much higher can XRP go in 2025?
A closer look at XRP price predictions
Right now, it's easy to find investors convinced that XRP will double, triple, or even quadruple in price by the end of the year to hit the $10 mark. And, if you spend just a few minutes more, you can find investors convinced that XRP could hit $100 soon. Spend a few more minutes, and you can find a forecast that calls for XRP to hit a wildly optimistic price of $10,000 per token.
Image source: Getty Images.
But let's set expectations here. For one, XRP is already up a lot since the election, so much of the pro-crypto euphoria during the past few months has likely already priced into the news about the SEC. Markets are smarter than you think. That helps to explain why XRP didn't double on the latest news. Instead, it was up a modest (by crypto standards) 10%.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
Moreover, if you look at the past decade of XRP's price history, there's very little to suggest that XRP is going to double in price anytime soon. The all-time high for XRP is just $3.84, and that was all the way back in 2018. To make the math easier, let's just call this $4. So XRP would need to soar another 60% to hit that target by the end of 2025.
Just how likely is that? One clue comes from online prediction markets, where participants are wagering cold hard cash on a single question: "XRP All Time High Before 2026?" Right now, 41% think that's possible. At the beginning of the year, though, it was closer to 70%. So, obviously, the recent bout of market volatility has heavily influenced investors.
Three potential catalysts
That said, there are three potential catalysts that could help push XRP to a new all-time high. The first is the potential launch of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of the year. Back in February, Bloomberg analysts suggested that there was a 65% chance of this happening.
The thinking then was that the launch of a spot XRP ETF would be impossible as long as the SEC case was hanging over Ripple. Well, if the SEC case is finally finished, then the chances of XRP getting a spot ETF should increase dramatically. Nine investment firms have already submitted applications to the SEC, and it could be a matter of when, not if, a new spot XRP ETF starts trading.
The second potential catalyst involves the creation of the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, which was announced in early March by the Trump White House. Right now, it looks like XRP will be included as part of this crypto stockpile. That means that any XRP the government has confiscated and didn't sell during the past decade or so will be added.
The big question, though, is whether the U.S. government will ever buy XRP to this stockpile. If it ever does, that could send the price of XRP skyrocketing.
The third potential catalyst involves stablecoins, which are now a $200 billion industry. Ripple wants to become part of this fast-growing sector, and at the end of 2024, it debuted a new Ripple stablecoin (known as RLUSD) pegged 1-to-1 to the U.S dollar.
The thinking here is that this Ripple stablecoin could become the perfect on-ramp for Wall Street institutions to get onto the XRP blockchain. And, indeed, investment giant BlackRock is now partnering with XRP on an asset tokenization project that uses this Ripple stablecoin. As XRP blockchain activity increases, it should help to push up the price of the XRP token.
Prediction: XRP will hit $4 before 2026
Putting all this together, I think there's at least a 50% chance that XRP will hit a new all-time high before the end of the year. Now that the air has seemingly been cleared of any regulatory risk, XRP could easily regain the $3 level, which is where it was trading back in January. And if the new spot XRP ETFs come to fruition, that could be the key catalyst that sends XRP to $4.
But buyer beware: Ripple (and a handful of Ripple insiders) appears to hold anywhere from 50% to 70% of the total coin supply of XRP. That is extremely concentrated ownership, and makes me a bit nervous.
Moreover, the exact legal consequences of the SEC dropping its case are still unclear. The SEC has thus far not publicly commented, and there have been many twists and turns during the past four years. Before you invest in XRP, be sure to do your due diligence and understand the potential risk factors involved.
