With the market teetering on the edge of disaster due to concerns about tariffs and an economy that might be trending toward recession or potentially even already in a state of recession, now is a frightening time to be thinking about buying anything, especially a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC +1.38%).
There's a significant chance that every dollar invested into the market right now might be worth a bit less for quite some time. And, especially if there's an economic downturn that's sharper than anticipated, investors might find themselves short on cash to cover expenses if they over-commit to any single investment.
Nonetheless, I'm still willing to buy Bitcoin hand over fist right now. I don't expect that to change, even if there's a bear market or if the economic headwinds grow fiercer than they already are. I feel good about my strategy here, so let me explain why it will probably work.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Loading up right now is a smart move for the long term
As you've probably heard, the whole point of Bitcoin is that it's an asset that nobody can issue more of, in contrast to a fiat currency. You've probably also heard that Bitcoin gets more difficult to mine over time, meaning that its supply will grow very slowly in the future. That implies a pair of things which make it an easy asset to keep buying no matter the economic conditions.
First, the scarcity mechanism of Bitcoin means there's a big incentive to buy it today rather than next year. In the future, it will be harder to produce, so when you go to buy it, you will be competing over a smaller quantity of new coins coming on the market. If there's a major recession today, it won't change anything about these basic factors, although it may push the price lower for the near future. But if you're investing with a long time horizon, the price on any specific day or even in any given quarter does not matter so much as the probability that the price will be considerably higher when you plan on selling years in the future.
And there's nothing about a recession that is going to make Bitcoin easier to produce, regardless of whether it's caused by tariffs or war or mismanagement or anything else. Remember, Bitcoin mining operations are spread around the world, so even if one country is experiencing dysfunction, miners elsewhere will still be able to keep the chain alive -- and if there's a disruption to miners, it will only slow the supply growth even more.
Second, much of the concern surrounding risk assets right now is linked to the onset of new tariffs in the U.S. Bitcoin isn't a good that's imported, and it can't be created via fiat. It isn't a medium of exchange for trade payments to any significant degree. Tariffs on mining hardware will simply cause mining to be done elsewhere, so there is no threat to the network itself.
So there are no direct risks to its value either in the near term or the long term. Therefore, as long as the coin has a handful of evangelists who are willing to buy it at any price, as I am, there will continue to be a persistent level of demand, which, when considering its supply dynamics, probably will slowly drive up prices over the long run.
Knowing the points above, and knowing that my time horizon for Bitcoin is to hold it for 20 or 30 years, there simply is not much of a reason to stop my regularly scheduled purchases. Bitcoin isn't going to get any easier to make, and in the big scheme of things, major holders are going to keep accumulating it to take supply off the market. The price today is a distraction.
Altcoin investments are on pause, not cancelled
As bullish as I may be on Bitcoin, the same is not true of altcoins at the moment, including those that I've held dear like Solana. There's no need to rush to sell, and there's no need to stop investing in them altogether, but more caution is now warranted compared to just a few weeks ago.
In short, the largest altcoins in the cryptocurrency sector are not necessarily very insulated from economic downturns at all. It's a no-brainer that they're riskier than Bitcoin because they're smaller and less established overall. But it's in times of turbulence that additional risk exposure can cause real problems for investors, and potentially problems that won't blow over once economic conditions improve.
It isn't that the core investment theses of the top altcoins are suddenly invalid, or that I'm selling them as a result of economic instability or tariffs. It's that their recovery is not at all guaranteed because many of them rely on the quality of the (typically highly risky) projects their blockchain ecosystems to continue to attract new capital to invest.
When investment dollars allocated to high-risk plays start to run short due to investors losing their nerve in perilous times, those ecosystems start to shrink. For them to recover, new projects, most likely in newly emerging growth segments, need to launch and find traction -- and that's something that is a lot harder to do in a shaky economic environment.
I'm still a buyer of certain altcoins these days, and you could be too. But when it comes to picking between altcoins and Bitcoin, for now, it makes more sense to lean toward the somewhat safer and longer-term play, as a lot needs to go right for the riskier options to deliver, and the environment might not be right for that to happen for a while.
