Quantum computing has a lot of potential to transform the way scientists discover new materials, how researchers discover new drugs, and how doctors cure diseases. These significant opportunities are spurring lots of interest in quantum computing stocks, with Rigetti Computing (RGTI 25.91%) garnering significant attention and soaring 943% over the past year.
Those gains are certainly impressive, but what does it mean for investors considering buying Rigetti's stock right now, and where might the company be three years from now?
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Rigetti is tapping into a promising market, but it's mostly unproven
Quantum computers have the potential to be many times more powerful than the world's most powerful computers right now. Their unique opportunity comes from their ability to process data in multiple states at the same time, instead of just the binary processing of 0s and 1s for traditional computers.
This means quantum computers can work through larger sets of data and do much more complex calculations faster than traditional computers. What's got investors excited is that quantum computing could eventually become a $173 billion market by 2040.
Rigetti makes hardware, software, and quantum computing systems that are already being used by big tech companies, including Microsoft and Amazon. By offering a comprehensive quantum computing solution, Rigetti's technology may offer advantages to rivals that don't have such complete offerings.
But, as of now, quantum computers make far more mistakes than traditional computers, and there's an ongoing debate as to when they'll have any practical applications. For example, Alphabet's Google has its own quantum computing program, and the company said recently that it's still five years away from any practical applications.
Where will Rigetti be in three years?
To understand where Rigetti could be in a few years, it's important to look at what's happening with the company right now. In the first quarter of 2025, Rigetti's sales plummeted 52% from the year-ago period to just $1.5 million. That was disappointing on its own, but also because it added to the company's sales decline of 10% in 2024, landing at $10.8 million.
Unsurprisingly, Rigetti isn't profitable. The company's operating loss was nearly $22 million in the quarter, worse than its loss of $16.5 million in the year-ago quarter.
Clearly, Rigetti isn't on a path toward growth right now, and management isn't expecting much in the way of revenue for several years. Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni said on the company's recent earnings call: "Really, the goal should be to get quantum computers to quantum advantage, and that's really when commercial sales and sales in general start making sense. And we are talking at least three years from now, maybe four to five years from now."
So, in three years or more, the company may start growing its sales. That's not exactly reassuring for investors and means that Rigetti is a highly speculative investment at this point.
What's more is that with the stock's gains over the past year, it's also very expensive. Rigetti Computing's shares have a price-to-sales ratio of 290, which is very expensive by any measure. Therefore, the company would have to experience astronomical growth over the next three years to come even remotely close to justifying its current valuation -- never mind positive stock returns.
Leave this stock alone for now
With Rigetti's management not expecting any significant revenue over the next few years and its share price already soaring recently, Rigetti looks like an expensive stock that's worth leaving alone for now.
Until the company can increase revenue substantially and quantum computers begin to prove their worth in practical applications, investors risk overpaying for a speculative company in an unproven market with Rigetti right now.
